Can we identify non-stationary dynamics of trial-to-trial variability?"

Identifying sources of the apparent variability in non-stationary scenarios is a fundamental problem in many biological data analysis settings. For instance, neurophysiological responses to the same task often vary from each repetition of the same experiment (trial) to the next. The origin and functional role of this observed variability is one of the fundamental questions in neuroscience. The nature of such trial-to-trial dynamics however remains largely elusive to current data analysis approaches. A range of strategies have been proposed in modalities such as electro-encephalography but gaining a fundamental insight into latent sources of trial-to-trial variability in neural recordings is still a major challenge. In this paper, we present a proof-of-concept study to the analysis of trial-to-trial variability dynamics founded on non-autonomous dynamical systems. At this initial stage, we evaluate the capacity of a simple statistic based on the behaviour of trajectories in classification settings, the trajectory coherence, in order to identify trial-to-trial dynamics. First, we derive the conditions leading to observable changes in datasets generated by a compact dynamical system (the Duffing equation). This canonical system plays the role of a ubiquitous model of non-stationary supervised classification problems. Second, we estimate the coherence of class-trajectories in empirically reconstructed space of system states. We show how this analysis can discern variations attributable to non-autonomous deterministic processes from stochastic fluctuations. The analyses are benchmarked using simulated and two different real datasets which have been shown to exhibit attractor dynamics. As an illustrative example, we focused on the analysis of the rat's frontal cortex ensemble dynamics during a decision-making task. Results suggest that, in line with recent hypotheses, rather than internal noise, it is the deterministic trend which most likely underlies the observed trial-to-trial variability. Thus, the empirical tool developed within this study potentially allows us to infer the source of variability in in-vivo neural recordings

Tractable nonlinear memory functions as a tool to capture and explain dynamical behaviours

Mathematical approaches from dynamical systems theory are used in a range of fields. This includes biology where they are used to describe processes such as protein-protein interaction and gene regulatory networks. As such networks increase in size and complexity, detailed dynamical models become cumbersome, making them difficult to explore and decipher. This necessitates the application of simplifying and coarse graining techniques in order to derive explanatory insight. Here we demonstrate that Zwanzig-Mori projection methods can be used to arbitrarily reduce the dimensionality of dynamical networks while retaining their dynamical properties. We show that a systematic expansion around the quasi-steady state approximation allows an explicit solution for memory functions without prior knowledge of the dynamics. The approach not only preserves the same steady states but also replicates the transients of the original system. The method also correctly predicts the dynamics of multistable systems as well as networks producing sustained and damped oscillations. Applying the approach to a gene regulatory network from the vertebrate neural tube, a well characterised developmental transcriptional network, identifies features of the regulatory network responsible dfor its characteristic transient behaviour. Taken together, our analysis shows that this method is broadly applicable to multistable dynamical systems and offers a powerful and efficient approach for understanding their behaviour.Comment: (8 pages, 8 figures