Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America

Optimisation in ‘Self-modelling’ Complex Adaptive Systems

When a dynamical system with multiple point attractors is released from an arbitrary initial condition it will relax into a configuration that locally resolves the constraints or opposing forces between interdependent state variables. However, when there are many conflicting interdependencies between variables, finding a configuration that globally optimises these constraints by this method is unlikely, or may take many attempts. Here we show that a simple distributed mechanism can incrementally alter a dynamical system such that it finds lower energy configurations, more reliably and more quickly. Specifically, when Hebbian learning is applied to the connections of a simple dynamical system undergoing repeated relaxation, the system will develop an associative memory that amplifies a subset of its own attractor states. This modifies the dynamics of the system such that its ability to find configurations that minimise total system energy, and globally resolve conflicts between interdependent variables, is enhanced. Moreover, we show that the system is not merely ‘recalling’ low energy states that have been previously visited but ‘predicting’ their location by generalising over local attractor states that have already been visited. This ‘self-modelling’ framework, i.e. a system that augments its behaviour with an associative memory of its own attractors, helps us better-understand the conditions under which a simple locally-mediated mechanism of self-organisation can promote significantly enhanced global resolution of conflicts between the components of a complex adaptive system. We illustrate this process in random and modular network constraint problems equivalent to graph colouring and distributed task allocation problems

Random Neural Networks and Optimisation

In this thesis we introduce new models and learning algorithms for the Random Neural Network (RNN), and we develop RNN-based and other approaches for the solution of emergency management optimisation problems. With respect to RNN developments, two novel supervised learning algorithms are proposed. The first, is a gradient descent algorithm for an RNN extension model that we have introduced, the RNN with synchronised interactions (RNNSI), which was inspired from the synchronised firing activity observed in brain neural circuits. The second algorithm is based on modelling the signal-flow equations in RNN as a nonnegative least squares (NNLS) problem. NNLS is solved using a limited-memory quasi-Newton algorithm specifically designed for the RNN case. Regarding the investigation of emergency management optimisation problems, we examine combinatorial assignment problems that require fast, distributed and close to optimal solution, under information uncertainty. We consider three different problems with the above characteristics associated with the assignment of emergency units to incidents with injured civilians (AEUI), the assignment of assets to tasks under execution uncertainty (ATAU), and the deployment of a robotic network to establish communication with trapped civilians (DRNCTC). AEUI is solved by training an RNN tool with instances of the optimisation problem and then using the trained RNN for decision making; training is achieved using the developed learning algorithms. For the solution of ATAU problem, we introduce two different approaches. The first is based on mapping parameters of the optimisation problem to RNN parameters, and the second on solving a sequence of minimum cost flow problems on appropriately constructed networks with estimated arc costs. For the exact solution of DRNCTC problem, we develop a mixed-integer linear programming formulation, which is based on network flows. Finally, we design and implement distributed heuristic algorithms for the deployment of robots when the civilian locations are known or uncertain

Transformations in the Scale of Behaviour and the Global Optimisation of Constraints in Adaptive Networks

The natural energy minimisation behaviour of a dynamical system can be interpreted as a simple optimisation process, finding a locally optimal resolution of problem constraints. In human problem solving, high-dimensional problems are often made much easier by inferring a low-dimensional model of the system in which search is more effective. But this is an approach that seems to require top-down domain knowledge; not one amenable to the spontaneous energy minimisation behaviour of a natural dynamical system. However, in this paper we investigate the ability of distributed dynamical systems to improve their constraint resolution ability over time by self-organisation. We use a ‘self-modelling’ Hopfield network with a novel type of associative connection to illustrate how slowly changing relationships between system components can result in a transformation into a new system which is a low-dimensional caricature of the original system. The energy minimisation behaviour of this new system is significantly more effective at globally resolving the original system constraints. This model uses only very simple, and fully-distributed positive feedback mechanisms that are relevant to other ‘active linking’ and adaptive networks. We discuss how this neural network model helps us to understand transformations and emergent collective behaviour in various non-neural adaptive networks such as social, genetic and ecological networks

Connections Between Adaptive Control and Optimization in Machine Learning

This paper demonstrates many immediate connections between adaptive control and optimization methods commonly employed in machine learning. Starting from common output error formulations, similarities in update law modifications are examined. Concepts in stability, performance, and learning, common to both fields are then discussed. Building on the similarities in update laws and common concepts, new intersections and opportunities for improved algorithm analysis are provided. In particular, a specific problem related to higher order learning is solved through insights obtained from these intersections.Comment: 18 page

Online Planner Selection with Graph Neural Networks and Adaptive Scheduling

Automated planning is one of the foundational areas of AI. Since no single planner can work well for all tasks and domains, portfolio-based techniques have become increasingly popular in recent years. In particular, deep learning emerges as a promising methodology for online planner selection. Owing to the recent development of structural graph representations of planning tasks, we propose a graph neural network (GNN) approach to selecting candidate planners. GNNs are advantageous over a straightforward alternative, the convolutional neural networks, in that they are invariant to node permutations and that they incorporate node labels for better inference. Additionally, for cost-optimal planning, we propose a two-stage adaptive scheduling method to further improve the likelihood that a given task is solved in time. The scheduler may switch at halftime to a different planner, conditioned on the observed performance of the first one. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method against strong baselines, both deep learning and non-deep learning based. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/matenure/GNN_planner}.Comment: AAAI 2020. Code is released at https://github.com/matenure/GNN_planner. Data set is released at https://github.com/IBM/IPC-graph-dat

Inference and Optimization of Real Edges on Sparse Graphs - A Statistical Physics Perspective

Inference and optimization of real-value edge variables in sparse graphs are studied using the Bethe approximation and replica method of statistical physics. Equilibrium states of general energy functions involving a large set of real edge-variables that interact at the network nodes are obtained in various cases. When applied to the representative problem of network resource allocation, efficient distributed algorithms are also devised. Scaling properties with respect to the network connectivity and the resource availability are found, and links to probabilistic Bayesian approximation methods are established. Different cost measures are considered and algorithmic solutions in the various cases are devised and examined numerically. Simulation results are in full agreement with the theory.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures, major changes: Sections IV to VII updated, Figs. 1 to 3 replace