Complexity, Collective Effects and Modelling of Ecosystems: formation, function and stability

We discuss the relevance of studying ecology within the framework of Complexity Science from a statistical mechanics approach. Ecology is concerned with understanding how systems level properties emerge out of the multitude of interactions amongst large numbers of components, leading to ecosystems that possess the prototypical characteristics of complex systems. We argue that statistical mechanics is at present the best methodology available to obtain a quantitative description of complex systems, and that ecology is in urgent need of ``integrative'' approaches that are quantitative and non-stationary. We describe examples where combining statistical mechanics and ecology has led to improved ecological modelling and, at the same time, broadened the scope of statistical mechanics.Comment: 11 pages and 1 figur

QML-Morven : A Novel Framework for Learning Qualitative Models

Publisher PD

Evolutionary Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems: An Ecological Perspective

Evolution takes place in an evolutionary setting that typically involves interactions with other organisms. To describe such evolution, a structure is needed which incorporates the simultaneous evolution of interacting species. Here a formal framework for this purpose is suggested, extending from the microscopic interactions between individuals- the immediate cause of natural selection, through the mesoscopic population dynamics responsible for driving the replacement of one mutant phenotype by another, to the macroscopic process of phenotypic evolution arising from many such substitutions. The process of coevolution that results from this is illustrated in the predator-prey systems. With no more than qualitative information about the evolutionary dynamics, some basic properties of predator-prey coevolution become evident. More detailed understanding requires specification of an evolutionary dynamic; two models for this purpose are outlined, one from our own research on a stochastic process of mutation and selection and the other from quantitative genetics. Much of the interest in coevolution has been to characterize the properties of fixed points at which there is no further phenotypic evolution. Stability analysis of the fixed points of evolutionary dynamical systems is reviewed and leads to conclusions about the asymptotic states of evolution rather than different from those of game-theoretic methods. These differences become especially important when evolution involves more than one species

In Situ Formation and Dynamical Evolution of Hot Jupiter Systems

Hot Jupiters, giant extrasolar planets with orbital periods shorter than ~10 days, have long been thought to form at large radial distances, only to subsequently experience long-range inward migration. Here, we propose that in contrast with this picture, a substantial fraction of the hot Jupiter population formed in situ via the core accretion process. We show that under conditions appropriate to the inner regions of protoplanetary disks, rapid gas accretion can be initiated by Super-Earth type planets, comprising 10-20 Earth masses of refractory composition material. An in situ formation scenario leads to testable consequences, including the expectation that hot Jupiters should frequently be accompanied by additional low-mass planets with periods shorter than ~100 days. Our calculations further demonstrate that dynamical interactions during the early stages of planetary systems' lifetimes should increase the inclinations of such companions, rendering transits rare. High-precision radial velocity monitoring provides the best prospect for their detection.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted to Ap

The Evolutionary Unfolding of Complexity

We analyze the population dynamics of a broad class of fitness functions that exhibit epochal evolution---a dynamical behavior, commonly observed in both natural and artificial evolutionary processes, in which long periods of stasis in an evolving population are punctuated by sudden bursts of change. Our approach---statistical dynamics---combines methods from both statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory in a way that offers an alternative to current ``landscape'' models of evolutionary optimization. We describe the population dynamics on the macroscopic level of fitness classes or phenotype subbasins, while averaging out the genotypic variation that is consistent with a macroscopic state. Metastability in epochal evolution occurs solely at the macroscopic level of the fitness distribution. While a balance between selection and mutation maintains a quasistationary distribution of fitness, individuals diffuse randomly through selectively neutral subbasins in genotype space. Sudden innovations occur when, through this diffusion, a genotypic portal is discovered that connects to a new subbasin of higher fitness genotypes. In this way, we identify innovations with the unfolding and stabilization of a new dimension in the macroscopic state space. The architectural view of subbasins and portals in genotype space clarifies how frozen accidents and the resulting phenotypic constraints guide the evolution to higher complexity.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figure

Non-conservative Evolution of Cataclysmic Variables

We suggest a new mechanism to account for the loss of angular momentum in binaries with non-conservative mass exchange. It is shown that in some cases the loss of matter can result in increase of the orbital angular momentum of a binary. If included into consideration in evolutionary calculations, this mechanism appreciably extends the range of mass ratios of components for which mass exchange in binaries is stable. It becomes possible to explain the existence of some observed cataclysmic binaries with high donor/accretor mass ratio, which was prohibited in conservative evolution models.Comment: LaTeX, 32 pages, to be published in Astron. Z