100,598 research outputs found
Improving the predictability of take-off times with Machine Learning : a case study for the Maastricht upper area control centre area of responsibility
The uncertainty of the take-off time is a major contribution to the loss of trajectory predictability. At present, the Estimated Take-Off Time (ETOT) for each individual flight is extracted from the Enhanced Traffic Flow Management System (ETFMS) messages, which are sent each time there is an event triggering a recalculation of the flight data by the Network Man- ager Operations Centre. However, aircraft do not always take- off at the ETOTs reported by the ETFMS due to several factors, including congestion and bad weather conditions at the departure airport, reactionary delays and air traffic flow management slot improvements. This paper presents two machine learning models that take into account several of these factors to improve the take- off time prediction of individual flights one hour before their estimated off-block time. Predictions performed by the model trained on three years of historical flight and weather data show a reduction on the take-off time prediction error of about 30% as compared to the ETOTs reported by the ETFMS.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version
Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling
One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties
Tree Memory Networks for Modelling Long-term Temporal Dependencies
In the domain of sequence modelling, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have
been capable of achieving impressive results in a variety of application areas
including visual question answering, part-of-speech tagging and machine
translation. However this success in modelling short term dependencies has not
successfully transitioned to application areas such as trajectory prediction,
which require capturing both short term and long term relationships. In this
paper, we propose a Tree Memory Network (TMN) for modelling long term and short
term relationships in sequence-to-sequence mapping problems. The proposed
network architecture is composed of an input module, controller and a memory
module. In contrast to related literature, which models the memory as a
sequence of historical states, we model the memory as a recursive tree
structure. This structure more effectively captures temporal dependencies
across both short term and long term sequences using its hierarchical
structure. We demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed TMN
in two practical problems, aircraft trajectory modelling and pedestrian
trajectory modelling in a surveillance setting, and in both cases we outperform
the current state-of-the-art. Furthermore, we perform an in depth analysis on
the evolution of the memory module content over time and provide visual
evidence on how the proposed TMN is able to map both long term and short term
relationships efficiently via a hierarchical structure
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