Bootstrap bias-correction procedure in estimating long-run relationships from dynamic panels, with an application to money demand in the euro area

In dynamic panel data models, which are particularly well-suited to cross-country analysis, the Mean Group estimator (Pesaran and Smith, 1995) is under certain quite strong conditions consistent, but theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that it can be biased when the number of time observations is small. Possible explanations are sample-size bias and omitted variables or measurement errors that are correlated with the regressors. I find support for both hypotheses using a Monte Carlo experiment which analyzes cointegrated systems. A possible solution for the MG estimator bias is a bootstrap bias-correction procedure, but Pesaran and Zhao (1999) show that it performs well only when the true coefficient of the lagged dependent variable is small. In this paper, I test three different bootstrap procedures and obtain an appreciable reduction in the MG estimator bias, especially when the suggestions of Li and Maddala (1997) are applied. Finally, I use bootstrap bias-corrected estimators to investigate the long-run properties of money demand in the euro area.dynamic panels, bias-corrected estimator, long-run coefficients, money demand

Nonlinear system identification and control using dynamic multi-time scales neural networks

In this thesis, on-line identification algorithm and adaptive control design are proposed for nonlinear singularly perturbed systems which are represented by dynamic neural network model with multi-time scales. A novel on-line identification law for the Neural Network weights and linear part matrices of the model has been developed to minimize the identification errors. Based on the identification results, an adaptive controller is developed to achieve trajectory tracking. The Lyapunov synthesis method is used to conduct stability analysis for both identification algorithm and control design. To further enhance the stability and performance of the control system, an improved . dynamic neural network model is proposed by replacing all the output signals from the plant with the state variables of the neural network. Accordingly, the updating laws are modified with a dead-zone function to prevent parameter drifting. By combining feedback linearization with one of three classical control methods such as direct compensator, sliding mode controller or energy function compensation scheme, three different adaptive controllers have been proposed for trajectory tracking. New Lyapunov function analysis method is applied for the stability analysis of the improved identification algorithm and three control systems. Extensive simulation results are provided to support the effectiveness of the proposed identification algorithms and control systems for both dynamic NN models

Dynamic Control of Mobile Multirobot Systems: The Cluster Space Formulation

The formation control technique called cluster space control promotes simplified specification and monitoring of the motion of mobile multirobot systems of limited size. Previous paper has established the conceptual foundation of this approach and has experimentally verified and validated its use for various systems implementing kinematic controllers. In this paper, we briefly review the definition of the cluster space framework and introduce a new cluster space dynamic model. This model represents the dynamics of the formation as a whole as a function of the dynamics of the member robots. Given this model, generalized cluster space forces can be applied to the formation, and a Jacobian transpose controller can be implemented to transform cluster space compensation forces into robot-level forces to be applied to the robots in the formation. Then, a nonlinear model-based partition controller is proposed. This controller cancels out the formation dynamics and effectively decouples the cluster space variables. Computer simulations and experimental results using three autonomous surface vessels and four land rovers show the effectiveness of the approach. Finally, sensitivity to errors in the estimation of cluster model parameters is analyzed.Fil: Mas, Ignacio Agustin. Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Kitts, Christopher. Santa Clara University; Estados Unido

Improving Performance of Iterative Methods by Lossy Checkponting

Iterative methods are commonly used approaches to solve large, sparse linear systems, which are fundamental operations for many modern scientific simulations. When the large-scale iterative methods are running with a large number of ranks in parallel, they have to checkpoint the dynamic variables periodically in case of unavoidable fail-stop errors, requiring fast I/O systems and large storage space. To this end, significantly reducing the checkpointing overhead is critical to improving the overall performance of iterative methods. Our contribution is fourfold. (1) We propose a novel lossy checkpointing scheme that can significantly improve the checkpointing performance of iterative methods by leveraging lossy compressors. (2) We formulate a lossy checkpointing performance model and derive theoretically an upper bound for the extra number of iterations caused by the distortion of data in lossy checkpoints, in order to guarantee the performance improvement under the lossy checkpointing scheme. (3) We analyze the impact of lossy checkpointing (i.e., extra number of iterations caused by lossy checkpointing files) for multiple types of iterative methods. (4)We evaluate the lossy checkpointing scheme with optimal checkpointing intervals on a high-performance computing environment with 2,048 cores, using a well-known scientific computation package PETSc and a state-of-the-art checkpoint/restart toolkit. Experiments show that our optimized lossy checkpointing scheme can significantly reduce the fault tolerance overhead for iterative methods by 23%~70% compared with traditional checkpointing and 20%~58% compared with lossless-compressed checkpointing, in the presence of system failures.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, HPDC'1

Tracing and cataloguing knowledge in an e-health cardiology environment

AbstractIn an e-health cardiology environment, the current knowledge engineering systems can support two knowledge processes; the knowledge tracing, and the knowledge cataloguing.We have developed an n-tier system capable of supporting these processes by enabling human collaboration in each phase along with, a prototype scalable knowledge engineering tactic. A knowledge graph is used as a dynamic information structure. Biosignal data (values of HR, QRS, and ST variables) from 86 patients were used; two general practitioners defined and updated the patients’ clinical management protocols; and feedback was inserted retrospectively. Several calibration tests were also performed.The system succeeded in formulating three knowledge catalogues per patient, namely, the “patient in life”, the “patient in time”, and the “patient in action”.For each patient the clinically accepted normal limits of each variable were predicted with an accuracy of approximately 95%. The patients’ risk-levels were identified accurately, and in turn, the errors were reduced. The data and the expert-oriented feedback were also time-stamped correctly and synchronized under a common time-framework.Knowledge processes optimization necessitates human collaboration and scalable knowledge engineering tactics. Experts should be responsible for resenting or rejecting a process if it downgrades the provided healthcare quality

Learning causal models that make correct manipulation predictions with time series data

One of the fundamental purposes of causal models is using them to predict the effects of manipulating various components of a system. It has been argued by Dash (2005, 2003) that the Do operator will fail when applied to an equilibrium model, unless the underlying dynamic system obeys what he calls Equilibration-Manipulation Commutability. Unfortunately, this fact renders most existing causal discovery algorithms unreliable for reasoning about manipulations. Motivated by this caveat, in this paper we present a novel approach to causal discovery of dynamic models from time series. The approach uses a representation of dynamic causal models motivated by Iwasaki and Simon (1994), which asserts that all “causation across time" occurs because a variable’s derivative has been affected instantaneously. We present an algorithm that exploits this representation within a constraint-based learning framework by numerically calculating derivatives and learning instantaneous relationships. We argue that due to numerical errors in higher order derivatives, care must be taken when learning causal structure, but we show that the Iwasaki-Simon representation reduces the search space considerably, allowing us to forego calculating many high-order derivatives. In order for our algorithm to discover the dynamic model, it is necessary that the time-scale of the data is much finer than any temporal process of the system. Finally, we show that our approach can correctly recover the structure of a fairly complex dynamic system, and can predict the effect of manipulations accurately when a manipulation does not cause an instability. To our knowledge, this is the first causal discovery algorithm that has demonstrated that it can correctly predict the effects of manipulations for a system that does not obey the EMC condition

Load Frequency Control of Multiple-Area Power Systems

In an interconnected power system, as a power load demand varies randomly, both area frequency and tie-line power interchange also vary. The objectives of load frequency control (LFC) are to minimize the transient deviations in theses variables (area frequency and tie-line power interchange) and to ensure their steady state errors to be zeros. When dealing with the LFC problem of power systems, unexpected external disturbances, parameter uncertainties and the model uncertainties of the power system pose big challenges for controller design. Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC), as an increasingly popular practical control technique, has the advantages of requiring little information from the plant model and being robust against disturbances and uncertainties. This thesis presents a solution to the LFC problem based on ADRC. The controller is constructed for a three-area power system with different turbine units including non-reheat, reheat and hydraulic units in different areas. The dynamic model of the power system and the controller design based on the model are elaborated in the thesis. Simulation results and frequency-domain analyses proved that ADRC controller is attractive to the LFC problem in its stability and robustnes

Load Frequency Control of Multiple-Area Power Systems

In an interconnected power system, as a power load demand varies randomly, both area frequency and tie-line power interchange also vary. The objectives of load frequency control (LFC) are to minimize the transient deviations in theses variables (area frequency and tie-line power interchange) and to ensure their steady state errors to be zeros. When dealing with the LFC problem of power systems, unexpected external disturbances, parameter uncertainties and the model uncertainties of the power system pose big challenges for controller design. Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC), as an increasingly popular practical control technique, has the advantages of requiring little information from the plant model and being robust against disturbances and uncertainties. This thesis presents a solution to the LFC problem based on ADRC. The controller is constructed for a three-area power system with different turbine units including non-reheat, reheat and hydraulic units in different areas. The dynamic model of the power system and the controller design based on the model are elaborated in the thesis. Simulation results and frequency-domain analyses proved that ADRC controller is attractive to the LFC problem in its stability and robustnes