Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:

There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. Despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers can reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups of between 1.6 – 2.8 percent annually, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit. Finally, while there is some evidence that droughts may become more frequent in the future, it is clear that even without an increase in frequency, drought impacts will continue to put a significant burden on Syria's economy and people. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security and better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of countries and people to climate change.Climate change, Development, drought, Growth, Poverty,

Modeling water resources management at the basin level: review and future directions

Water quality / Water resources development / Agricultural production / River basin development / Mathematical models / Simulation models / Water allocation / Policy / Economic aspects / Hydrology / Reservoir operation / Groundwater management / Drainage / Conjunctive use / Surface water / GIS / Decision support systems / Optimization methods / Water supply

Sustainable Agriculture for Climate Change Adaptation

© 2020 by the authors. This is an open access work distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.As we lie firmly entrenched within what many have termed the Anthropocene, the time of humans, human influence on the functioning of the planet has never been greater or in greater need of mitigation. Climate change, the accelerated warming of the planet’s surface attributed to human activities, is now at the forefront of global politics. The 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) Paris Agreement saw a landmark agreement reached between countries belonging to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The agreement seeks to arrest climate change and maintain the global temperature rise below a 2 ◦C increase compared to pre-industrial levels, and to devise means and ways to adapt to its effects. The agriculture sector not only contributes to climate change but, as a land-based industry, is also greatly affected by climate change. This publication is a collection of carefully selected papers addressing multiple climate related issues from across the five continents, providing a truly global perspective

The Economics of Desertification, Land Degradation, and Drought; Toward an Integrated Global Assessment

Land degradation has not been comprehensively addressed at the global level or in developing countries. A suitable economic framework that could guide investments and institutional action is lacking. This study aims to overcome this deficiency and to provide a framework for a global assessment based on a consideration of the costs of action versus inaction regarding desertification, land degradation, and drought (DLDD). Most of the studies on the costs of land degradation (mainly limited to soil erosion) give cost estimates of less than 1 percent up to about 10 percent of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) for various countries worldwide. But the indirect costs of DLDD on the economy (national income), as well as their socioeconomic consequences (particularly poverty impacts), must be accounted for, too. Despite the numerous challenges, a global assessment of the costs of action and inaction against DLDD is possible, urgent, and necessary. This study provides a framework for such a global assessment and provides insights from some related country studies.Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The economics of desertification, land degradation, and drought: Toward an integrated global assessment

cost of inaction, desertification, drought, Economics, Land degradation, prevention of land degradation,

Technologies for climate change adaptation: agricultural sector

This Guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. A set of twenty two adaptation technologies are showcased that are primarily based on the principals of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented with important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required to make adaptation function. The technologies cover monitoring and forecasting the climate, sustainable water use and management, soil management, sustainable crop management, seed conservation, sustainable forest management and sustainable livestock management. Technologies that tend to homogenize the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in conditions of environmental stress that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and indeed promote, diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. In this sense, the twenty two technologies showcased in this Guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while at the same time providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. Agro-ecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agricultural sector. The Guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature review of key publications, journal articles, and e-platforms, and by drawing on documented experiences sourced from a range of organizations working on projects and programmes concerned with climate change adaptation technologies in the agricultural sector. Its geographic scope is focused on developing countries where high levels of poverty, agricultural production, climate variability and biological diversity currently intersect. Key concepts around climate change adaptation are not universally agreed. It is therefore important to understand local contexts – especially social and cultural norms - when working with national and sub-national stakeholders to make informed decisions about appropriate technology options. Thus, decision-making processes should be participative, facilitated, and consensus-building oriented and should be based on the following key guiding principles: increasing awareness and knowledge, strengthening institutions, protecting natural resources, providing financial assistance and developing context-specific strategies. For decision-making the Community–Based Adaptation framework is proposed for creating inclusive governance that engages a range of stakeholders directly with local or district government and national coordinating bodies, and facilitates participatory planning, monitoring and implementation of adaptation activities. Seven criteria are suggested for the prioritization of adaptation technologies: (i) The extent to which the technology maintains or strengthens biological diversity and is environmentally sustainable; (ii) The extent to which the technology facilitates access to information systems and awareness of climate change information; (iii) Whether the technology support water, carbon and nutrient cycles and enables stable and/or increased productivity; (iv) Income-generating potential, cost-benefit analysis and contribution to improved equity; (v) Respect for cultural diversity and facilitation of inter-cultural exchange; (vi) Potential for integration into regional and national policies and can be scaled-up; (vii) The extent to which the technology builds formal and information institutions and social networks. Finally, recommendations are set out for practitioners and policy makers: • There is an urgent need for improved climate modelling and forecasting which can provide a basis for informed decision-making and the implementation of adaptation strategies. This should include traditional knowledge. • Information is also required to better understand the behaviour of plants, animals, pests and diseases as they react to climate change. • Potential changes in economic and social systems in the future under different climate scenarios should also be investigated so that the implications of adaptation strategy and planning choices are better understood. • It is important to secure effective flows of information through appropriate dissemination channels. This is vital for building adaptive capacity and decision-making processes. • Improved analysis of adaptation technologies is required to show how they can contribute to building adaptive capacity and resilience in the agricultural sector. This information needs to be compiled and disseminated for a range of stakeholders from local to national level. • Relationships between policy makers, researchers and communities should be built so that technologies and planning processes are developed in partnership, responding to producers’ needs and integrating their knowledge

Investigation of climate variability and climate change impacts on corn yield in the Eastern Corn Belt, USA

The increasing demand for both food and biofuels requires more corn production at global scale. However, current corn yield is not able to meet bio-ethanol demand without jeopardizing food security or intensifying and expanding corn cultivation. An alternative solution is to utilize cellulose and hemi-cellulose from perennial grasses to fulfill the increasing demand for biofuel energy. A watershed level scenario analysis is often applied to figure out a sustainable way to strike the balance between food and fuel demands, and maintain environment integrity. However, a solid modeling application requires a clear understanding of crop responses under various climate stresses. This is especially important for evaluating future climate impacts. Therefore, correct representation of corn growth and yield projection under various climate conditions (limited or oversupplied water) is essential for quantifying the relative benefits of alternative biofuel crops. The main objective of this study is to improve the evaluation of climate variability and climate change effects on corn growth based on plant-water interaction in the Midwestern US via a modeling approach. Traditional crop modeling methods with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are improved from many points, including introducing stress parameters under limited or oversupplied water conditions, improving seasonal crop growth simulation from imagery-based LAI information, and integrating CO2 effects on crop growth and crop-water relations. The SWAT model’s ability to represent crop responses under various climate conditions are evaluated at both plot scale, where observed soil moisture data is available and watershed scale, where direct soil moisture evaluation is not feasible. My results indicate that soil moisture evaluation is important in constraining crop water availability and thus better simulates crop responses to climate variability. Over a long term period, drought stress (limited moisture) explains the majority of yield reduction across all return periods at regional scale. Aeration stress (oversupplied water) results in higher yield decline over smaller spatial areas. Future climate change introduces more variability in drought and aeration stress, resulting in yield reduction, which cannot be compensated by positive effects brought by CO2 enhancement on crop growth. Information conveyed from this study can also provide valuable suggestions to local stakeholders for developing better watershed management plans. It helps to accurately identify climate sensitive cropland inside a watershed, which could be potential places for more climate resilient plants, like biofuel crops. This is a sustainable strategy to maintain both food/fuel provision, and mitigate the negative impact of future climate change on cash crops

Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia:

"Extreme interannual variability of precipitation within Ethiopia is not uncommon, inducing droughts or floods and often creating serious repercussions on agricultural and non-agricultural commodities. An agro-economic model, including mean climate variables, was developed to assess irrigation and road construction investment strategies in comparison to a baseline scenario over a 12-year time horizon. The motivation for this work is to evaluate whether the inclusion of climate variability in the model has a significant effect on prospective investment strategies and the resulting country-wide economy. The mean climate model is transformed into a variable climate model by dynamically adding yearly climate-yield factors, which influence agricultural production levels and linkages to non-agricultural goods. Nine sets of variable climate data are processed by the new model to produce an ensemble of potential economic prediction indicators. Analysis of gross domestic product and poverty rate reveal a significant overestimation of the country's future welfare by the mean climate model method, in comparison to probability density functions created from the variable climate ensemble. The ensemble is further utilized to demonstrate risk assessment capabilities. The addition of climate variability to the agro-economic model provides a framework, including realistic ranges of economic values, from which Ethiopian planners may make strategic decisions." Authors' abstractClimate variability, Water, Droughts, Flooding, Irrigation Economic aspects, Road construction Economic aspects, Investments, Economic situation, Agro-economic model,