Comparing Kalman Filters and Observers for Power System Dynamic State Estimation with Model Uncertainty and Malicious Cyber Attacks

Kalman filters and observers are two main classes of dynamic state estimation (DSE) routines. Power system DSE has been implemented by various Kalman filters, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). In this paper, we discuss two challenges for an effective power system DSE: (a) model uncertainty and (b) potential cyber attacks. To address this, the cubature Kalman filter (CKF) and a nonlinear observer are introduced and implemented. Various Kalman filters and the observer are then tested on the 16-machine, 68-bus system given realistic scenarios under model uncertainty and different types of cyber attacks against synchrophasor measurements. It is shown that CKF and the observer are more robust to model uncertainty and cyber attacks than their counterparts. Based on the tests, a thorough qualitative comparison is also performed for Kalman filter routines and observers.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1508.0725

Bibliographic Review on Distributed Kalman Filtering

In recent years, a compelling need has arisen to understand the effects of distributed information structures on estimation and filtering. In this paper, a bibliographical review on distributed Kalman filtering (DKF) is provided.\ud The paper contains a classification of different approaches and methods involved to DKF. The applications of DKF are also discussed and explained separately. A comparison of different approaches is briefly carried out. Focuses on the contemporary research are also addressed with emphasis on the practical applications of the techniques. An exhaustive list of publications, linked directly or indirectly to DKF in the open literature, is compiled to provide an overall picture of different developing aspects of this area

UltraSwarm: A Further Step Towards a Flock of Miniature Helicopters

We describe further progress towards the development of a MAV (micro aerial vehicle) designed as an enabling tool to investigate aerial flocking. Our research focuses on the use of low cost off the shelf vehicles and sensors to enable fast prototyping and to reduce development costs. Details on the design of the embedded electronics and the modification of the chosen toy helicopter are presented, and the technique used for state estimation is described. The fusion of inertial data through an unscented Kalman filter is used to estimate the helicopter’s state, and this forms the main input to the control system. Since no detailed dynamic model of the helicopter in use is available, a method is proposed for automated system identification, and for subsequent controller design based on artificial evolution. Preliminary results obtained with a dynamic simulator of a helicopter are reported, along with some encouraging results for tackling the problem of flocking

False data injection attack detection in smart grid

Smart grid is a distributed and autonomous energy delivery infrastructure that constantly monitors the operational state of its overall network using smart techniques and state estimation. State estimation is a powerful technique that is used to determine the overall operational state of the system based on a limited set of measurements collected through metering systems. Cyber-attacks pose serious risks to a smart grid state estimation that can cause disruptions and power outages resulting in huge economical losses and are therefore a big concern to a reliable national grid operation. False data injection attacks (FDIAs), engineered on the basis of the knowledge of the network configuration, are difficult to detect using the traditional data detection mechanisms. These detection schemes have been found vulnerable and failed to detect these FDIAs. FDIAs specifically target the state data and can manipulate the state measurements in such a way that these false measurements appear real to the main control systems. This research work explores the possibility of FDIA detection using state estimation in a distributed and partitioned smart grid. In order to detect FDIAs we use measurements for residual-based testing which creates an objective function; and the probability of erroneous data is determined from this residual test. In this test, a preset threshold is determined based on the prior history of the state data. FDIA cases are simulated within a smart grid considering that the Chi-square detection state estimator fails in identifying such attacks. We compute the objective function using the standard weighted least problem and then test the objective function against the value in the Chi-square table. The gain matrix and the Jacobian matrix are computed. The state variables are computed in the form of a voltage magnitude. The state variables are computed after the inception of an attack to assess these state magnitude results. Different sizes of partitioning are used to improve the overall sensitivity of the Chi-square results. Our additional estimator is based on a Kalman estimation that consists of the state prediction and state correction steps. In the first step, it obtains the state and matrix covariance prediction, and in the second step, it calculates the Kalman gain and the state and matrix covariance update steps. The set of points is created for the state vector x at a time instant t. The initial vector and covariance matrix are based on a priori knowledge of the historical estimates. A set of sigma points is estimated by the state update function. Sigma points refer to the minimal set of sampling points that are selected and transformed using nonlinear function, and the new mean and the covariance are formed out of these transformed points. The idea behind this is that it is easier to compute a Gaussian distribution than an arbitrary nonlinear function. The filter gain, the mean and the covariance are used to estimate the next state. Our simulation results show that the combination of Kalman estimation and distributed state estimation improves the overall stability index and vulnerability assessment score of the smart grid. We built a stability index table for a smart grid based on the state estimates value after the inception of an FDIA. The vulnerability assessment score of the smart grid is based on common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) and state estimates under the influence of an FDIA. The simulations are conducted in the MATPOWER program and different electrical bus systems such as IEEE 14, 30, 39, 118 and 300 are tested. All the contributions have been published in reputable journals and conferences.Doctor of Philosoph

An Approximate Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory Algorithm for Outlier Detection

Long Short-Term Memory networks trained with gradient descent and back-propagation have received great success in various applications. However, point estimation of the weights of the networks is prone to over-fitting problems and lacks important uncertainty information associated with the estimation. However, exact Bayesian neural network methods are intractable and non-applicable for real-world applications. In this study, we propose an approximate estimation of the weights uncertainty using Ensemble Kalman Filter, which is easily scalable to a large number of weights. Furthermore, we optimize the covariance of the noise distribution in the ensemble update step using maximum likelihood estimation. To assess the proposed algorithm, we apply it to outlier detection in five real-world events retrieved from the Twitter platform