Matching International Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets

In the present paper, we develop a two-sector general equilibrium model of a small open economy to explore the transmission mechanisms of external financial shocks. In particular, we use a cash-in- advance model with limited participation augmented with a financial friction in the form of a fundamentals-related risk premium on external funds. The friction amplifies the effects of external financial shocks, especially when the economy is highly indebted in foreign currency. For a set of Latin American economies, the theoretical model is calibrated to match the empirical impulse responses of output, investment, trade balance, and domestic credits in response to an adverse shock to the country risk premium. In addition, we analyze the role of monetary policy during the financial crisis.Emerging Markets, Financial Crises, International Capital Markets

Persistent Real Exchange Rates

Three well known facts that characterize exchange rate data are: (a) the high correlation between bilateral nominal and real exchange rates; (b) the high degree of persistence in real exchange rate movements; and (c) the high volatility of real exchange rates. This paper attempts a joint, albeit partial, rationalization of these facts in an environment with no staggered contracts and where prices are preset for only one quarter. There are two key innovations in the paper. First, we augment a standard two-country open economy model with learning-by-doing in production at the firm level. This induces monopolistically competitive firms to endogeneize the productivity effect of their price setting behavior. Specifically, firms endogenously choose not to adjust prices by the full proportion of a positive monetary shock in order to take advantage of the productivity benefits of higher production. Second, we introduce habits in leisure. This makes the labor supply decision dynamic and adds an additional source of propagation. We show that the calibrated model can quantitatively reproduce significant fractions of the aforementioned facts. Moreover, as in the data, the model also produces a positive correlation between the terms of trade and the nominal exchange rate.Real exchange rate movements, endogenous price stickiness, learning-by-doing

New trends for conducting hazard & operability (HAZOP) studies in continuous chemical processes

Identifying hazards is fundamental for ensuring the safe design and operation of a system in process plants and other facilities. Several techniques are available to identify hazardous situations, all of which require their rigorous, thorough, and systematic application by a multi-disciplinary team of experts. Success rests upon first identifying and subsequently analyzing possible scenarios that can cause accidents with different degrees of severity. While hazard identification may be the most important stage for risk management, it depends on subjectivity issues (e.g., human observation, good judgment and intuition, creativity, expertise, knowledge) which introduce bias. Without a structured identification system, hazards can be overlooked, thus entailing incomplete risk-evaluations and potential loss. The present Thesis is focused on developing both managerial and technical aspects intended to standardize one of the most used techniques for hazard identification; viz. HAZard & Operability (HAZOP) study. These criteria have been carefully implemented not only to ensure that most of the hazardous scenarios will be identified, but also that US OSHA PSM Rule, EPA RMP, and Seveso Directive requirements will be accomplished. Chapter I pioneers the main research topic; from introducing the process safety concept up to the evidence of more detailed information is required from related regulations. A review of regulations (i.e., US, Europe legislation) focused on Hazard Identification has been conducted, highlighting, there is an absence of specific criteria for performing techniques intended to identify what can go wrong. Chapter II introduces the risk management system required to analyze the risk from chemical process facilities, and justifies that hazard identification stage is the Process Safety foundation. Hereafter, an overview of the key Process Hazard Analyzes (PHA) has been conducted, and the specific HAZOP weaknesses and strengths have been highlighted to establish the first steps to focus on. Chapter III establishes the scope, the purpose and the specific objectives that the research covers. It answers the following questions on the spot: why the present research is performed, which elements are included, and what has been considered for acquiring the final conclusions of the manuscript. Chapter IV gathers HAZOP-related literature from books, guidelines, standards, major journals, and conference proceedings with the purpose of classifying the research conducted over the years and finally define the HAZOP state-of-the-art. Additionally, and according to the information collected, the current HAZOP limitations have been emphasized, and thus, the research needs that should be considered for the HAZOP improvement and advance. Chapter V analyzes the data collected while preparing, organizing, executing and writing HAZOPs in five petroleum-refining processes. A statistical analysis has been performed to extract guidance and conclusions to support the established criteria to conduct effectively HAZOP studies. Chapter VI establishes the whole set of actions that have to be taken into account for ensuring a wellplanned and executed HAZOP study. Both technical and management issues are addressed, criteria supported after considering the previous chapters of the manuscript. Chapter VI itself is the result of the present research, and could be used as a guideline not only for team leaders, but also for any related party interested on performing HAZOPs in continuous chemical processes. Chapter VII states the final conclusions of the research. The interested parties should be released about the hazard identification related-gaps present in current process safety regulations; which are the key limitations of the HAZOP study, and finally, which are the criteria to cover the research needs that have been found Annex I proposes the key tools (tables, figures and checklists "ready-to use'') to be used for conducting HAZOPs in continuous chemical processes. The information layout is structured according to the proposed HAZOP Management System. This information is intended to provide concise and structured documentation to be used as a reference book when conducting HAZOPs. Annex II is intended to overview the most relevant petroleum refining processes by highlighting key factors to take into account in the point of view of process safety and hazard identification, i.e. HAZOP. In this sense, key health and safety information of specific petroleum refining units is provided as a valuable guidance during brainstorming sessions. Annex III illustrates the complete set of data collected during the field work of the present research, and also analyzed in Chapter V of the manuscript. Additionally, it depicts a statistical summary of the key variables treated during the analysis. Finally, the Nomenclature, References, and Abbreviations & Acronyms used and cited during the manuscript have been listed. Additionally, a Glossary of key terms related to the Process Safety field has been illustrated.La present Tesis doctoral té com a objectiu estandarditzar l'aplicació d'una de les tècniques més utilitzades a la industria de procés per a la identificació de perills; l'anomenat HAZard & OPerability (HAZOP) study, específicament a processos complexes, com per exemple, unitat de refineria del petroli.El capítol I defineix el concepte de Seguretat de Processos, i progressivament analitza les diferents regulacions relacionades amb la temàtica, detallant específicament les mancances i buits d'informació que actualment hi ha presents a la primera etapa de la gestió del risc en industries de procés: la identificació de perills.El capítol II defineix el sistema de gestió del risc tecnològic que aplica a les industries de procés, i es justifica que l'etapa d'identificació de perills és el pilar de tot el sistema. Finalment, es mencionen algunes de les tècniques d'identificació més utilitzades, els anomenats Process Hazard Analysis (PHA), i es detallen les seves mancances i fortaleses, característiques que han acabat definint la temàtica específica de la Tesis. Concretament, es dóna èmfasis a la tècnica anomenada HAZard & OPerability (HAZOP) study, objecte principal de la recerca.El capítol III defineix l'abast, el propòsit i els objectius específics de la recerca. La intenció d'aquest capítol és donar resposta a les següents qüestions: el perquè de la recerca, quins elements han estat inclosos i què s'ha considerat per tal d'assolir les conclusions de la Tesis.El capítol IV descriu l'estat de l'art de la literatura relacionada amb el HAZOP. Aquesta revisió no només permet classificar les diferents línies de recerca relacionades amb el HAZOP, sinó que també permet assolir un coneixement profund de les diferents particularitats de la pròpia tècnica. El capítol finalitza amb un conjunt de mancances tant de gestió com tècniques, així com les necessitats de recerca que poden millorar l'organització i execució dels HAZOPs.El capítol V analitza la informació que ha estat recopilada durant la fase experimental de la tesis. Les dades procedeixen de la participació en cinc estudis HAZOP aplicats a la industria de refineria del petroli.En aquest sentit, el capítol V desenvolupa una anàlisi estadística d'aquestes dades per extreure'n conclusions quant a la preparació, organització i execució dels HAZOPs.El capítol VI estableix el conjunt d'accions que s'ha de tenir en compte per tal d'assegurar que un estudi HAZOP estigui ben organitzat i executat (la metodologia). Es defineix un Sistema de Gestió del HAZOP, i a partir de les seves fases, es desenvolupa una metodologia que pretén donar suport a tots aquells punts febles que han estat identificats en els capítols anteriors. Aquesta metodologia té la intenció de donar suport i guia no només als líders del HAZOP, sinó també a qualsevol part interessada en aquesta temàtica.El capítol VII descriu les conclusions de la recerca. En primera instància s'enumeren les mancances quant a la definició de criteris a seguir de diferents regulacions que apliquen a la Seguretat de Processos.Seguidament, es mencionen les limitacions de la pròpia tècnica HAZOP, i finalment, es descriuen quins són els criteris establerts per donar solució a totes aquestes febleses que han estat identificades.L'Annex I és una recopilació de diferents criteris que han estat desenvolupats al llarg de l'escrit en forma de taules i figures. Aquestes han estat ordenades cronològicament d'acord amb les diferents fases que defineixen el Sistema de Gestió HAZOP. L'annex I es pot utilitzar com a una referència concisa i pràctica, preparada i pensada per ésser utilitzada directament a camp, amb la intenció de donar suport a les parts interessades en liderar estudis HAZOP.L'annex II recopila informació relacionada amb aspectes clau de seguretat i medi ambient en diferents unitats de refineria. Aquest informació és un suport per tal de motivar el "brainstorming" dels diferents membres que conformen l'equip HAZOP.L'Annex III recopila les dades de les diferents variables que han estat considerades a la fase experimental de la recerca, juntament amb un conjunt de figures que mostren la seva estadística bàsica

Investment and financing constraints in China: does working capital management make a difference?

We use a panel of over 120,000 Chinese firms of different ownership types over the period 2000-2007 to analyze the linkages between investment in fixed and working capital and financing constraints. We find that those firms characterized by high working capital display high sensitivities of investment in working capital to cash flow (WKS) and low sensitivities of investment in fixed capital to cash flow (FKS). We then construct and analyze firm-level FKS and WKS measures and find that, despite severe external financing constraints, those firms with low FKS and high WKS exhibit the highest fixed investment rates. This suggests that good working capital management may help firms to alleviate the effects of financing constraints on fixed investment.Investment; Cash flow; Financing constraints; Working capital