MODELING PUBLIC POLICIES ANALYSIS OF LOGISTICS COLLABORATION IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE POTATO IN COLOMBIA.

The agricultural sector is considered fundamental for the supply of food needs of humanity, given the population growth. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the world population is estimated to be 9 billion people by the year 2050 and where the conditions of climate change can decrease crop yield up to 25%. This triggers greater vulnerability to the neediest population, being the rural sector the one hosting the poorest people. The rural area of Colombia represents 94% of extend the national territory, where 24% of the population lives a scenario of multiple problems that affect the country, such as the armed conflict of more than five decades, the presence of illicit crops and social inequality. Proof of this is that 0.4% of the Agricultural Production Units (UPA) have 41.1% of the total rural area registered by the National Administrative Department of Statistics DANE [3].That is, the land is the property or responsibility of a single producer natural or legal. The concentration of land leads to factors of inequality, where 41.4% of the population is in conditions of poverty and 18% in extreme poverty. These factors deteriorate given the low productivity, where about 36 million hectares are dedicated to livestock production and could have agricultural or forestry use, generating speculation in prices and a greater concentration of land and wealth. In Colombia, of the total of the rural area (excluding natural forests) only 12.7% goes to crops. Approximately 7.12 million hectares have agricultural vocation and whose production supplies the basic food needs of about 70% of the total of the Colombian population, mostly from small and medium-sized farmers. An exponent of colombian agriculture reality and whose production allows the livelihood of millions of people, is the agricultural sector of the potato. The potato is the object of study of this research and whose origin goes back to the Andes mountain range of South America. 7000 years ago, the wild plant was traded around the Titicaca river and began its process of domestication by hunters and gatherers who inhabited the area. Later, around the year 1400 the Incas improved the agricultural advances of their predecessors, where as well as corn, the potato was essential to make sure the food security of their empire that stretched from what is known today as Argentina to Colombia. With the Spanish invasion, the Inca civilization ended, however, the same did not happen with the potato, which spread to Europe between 1532 and 1572, where the aristocracy admired the potato flower but considered it a food not suitable for human consumption. Towards 1770, continental Europe was hit by famine, which opened the way to recognize the potato as a high-value food and food security. From that moment and during the nineteenth century it helped to meet the demographic growth of Europe, the United States and the British region. This is how the potato presents a strong global expansion, occupying the fifth place of the staple foods of higher production, after sugarcane, corn, rice and wheat, where its world production is estimated at 368 million tons per year. In Colombia, 80% of the cultivated area corresponds to agro industrial crops, tubers, bananas and cereals, which together represent 63% of agricultural production. The potato is the fourth product of greater national production [9] and the second when excluding the products of the agro industrial group, such as sugarcane and palm oil. During the last decade, the cultivated area decreased 2.51%. The yield only increased by 0.84% and the production fell 1.69%, behaviour opposite to the growth of the population, which in the same period was 1.32%. The yield of the crop in Colombia, is estimated between 15 and 17 tons per hectare cultivated, a low performance compared to the average presented by the countries with higher productivity, such as Belgium (45.3 tons / ha), New Zealand (45.1 tons / ha), Holland (43.8 tons / ha) and the United States (42.1 tons / ha). In Colombia around 90,000 families [10] are directly related to the production of potatoes, corresponding to 44,966 agricultural production units (UPA) and where the departments of Cundinamarca, Boyacá and Nariño represent 85.3% of national production. According to the amount of hectares planted, the producers are classified as small, medium and large, where the small producer's share represents 90%, with land up to 3 hectares and which generates 45% of the production. Followed by the medium producer with a 7% share, planting between 3 and 10 hectares and 35% of the production. Finally, the large producer with extensions of more than 10 hectares, represents 3% of the producers generating 20% of the production. This is how small farmers have a fundamental role in national production, despite restricted access to technology and better agricultural practices. The potato presents seasonality in its production, depending on the rainy season due to absent artificial irrigation systems, the in elasticity of the demand for prices, and the lack of proper storage systems. This facilitates an unbalanced environment between supply and demand, reflected in a high volatility of prices to the detriment of the producer and which, when added to the high costs of the crop, generates low financial returns. These are reflected in the investments made in hectares cultivated in the next period. These characteristics highlight the need to transform the countryside. They seek to strengthen agricultural competitiveness to consolidate the sector as a generator of employment and wealth for rural inhabitants. These requires comprehensive interventions in territorial planning, provision of public goods and social services, productive inclusion of the farmers, as well as develop mechanisms that bring small producers closer to the city markets. The above frames the challenge of infrastructure as a trigger of develop the field, to reducing transport costs and improving the conservation of products along the logistics chain. Precisely the deficient quantity and quality of infrastructure has generated the appearance of a large number of intermediaries in the supply network, weakening the commercial position of the producers. On the other hand, the low-level of associativity of Colombian agricultural producers, which according to the national agricultural census of 2014, shows how 73.7% of producers declare not belonging to any association or union [3]. This reduces the possibility of access to best practices that improve their conditions, and reducing the potential of their competitiveness and positioning in the logistics network. Through greater synergies, reflected among other aspects, in costs, opportunity and innovation, that is, it produces a greater capacity of the process to serve increasingly dynamic markets. This is how in recent years, and as it has been defined in various world forums, the international community has reaffirmed the need to formulate agricultural strategies that allow its sustained growth and that address develop the rural population. However, despite the interest collective and given the diversity of conditions surrounding agricultural development, it is not enough to stick to traditional policies such as import controls, subsidies or credit policies, among others. That is why this research addresses agricultural development from a perspective of collaborative logistics. In addition to encouraging develop the producer, this allows us to consider global realities such as climate change, the growing need for food, the increase in population and the volatility of the prices of food, which together threaten the food security of nations and where Colombia can play a strategic role, thanks to its natural characteristics, but which need policies and actions to achieve it. This implies the need for developing strategies to face these challenges, considering disintegrate the processes as an over effort among the members of the logistics network, with collaboration as a driving force for competitiveness in value chains being fundamental. The integration of agricultural logistics processes depends directly on the aggregate planning of supply chain requirements and this is where this research recognizes the distribution centers, as central nodes of the network, by directly influencing the planning and development of other logistics activities. These include : the supply of materials and supplies, inventory management, co-packing, added value processes and planning to distribute merchandise, as well as a mediator between the producer and the consumer. In this way, for logistics networks, the challenge arises when balancing the variability of supply and demand conditions with capacity models. To reduce uncertainty in decision-making, in a sector that in addition to technical assistance to improve crop yields, this also requires the formulation and implementation of public policies that encourage better logistical practices to trigger greater producer development. This research has the purpose of analysing the dynamic performance of the agricultural supply of potatoes in Colombia and the incidence of horizontal collaborative processes in distribution centers. This allows defining guidelines to formulate public policies for improving the performance of the rural sector, measured through production costs, crop yield and financial gross margin obtained by the producer. To do the purpose stated above, the problem is addressed through the different chapters, where the first chapter is based on the modeling of the agricultural sector of the potato. This integrates parameters of previous studies associated with the possible effects of the armed post-conflict in the target country and the effect on the crop in conditions of climate change, allowing the generation of diverse scenarios, contrasted through performance measures. Subsequently, in the second chapter, public policy scenarios that impel collaborative relationships between producers through specialized logistics infrastructures, such as distribution centers, are integrated into the modeling of the system. This considers public-private partnerships evaluated at different agreement times and promotion of the State for the associative participation of the producers, where simulate the different scenarios allows us to find the elements to be considered as guidelines to formulate public policies. Finally, the third chapter focuses on the scenario with the best performance obtained and is addressed through sensitivity analysis on policy levers, that is, on those elements that the decision maker can intervene to reinforce the feedback loops and to encourage the performance measures analysed. This is how the complexity of the system is addressed, analysing a possible strategy to develop collaborative distribution centers through public-private partnerships that stimulate the sector. This gives more power of actuation and decision making to the producer. The understanding of the system through the obtained results will allow us to identify basic guidelines to consider in the definition of public policies that impact the performance of the sector.The agricultural sector is considered fundamental for the supply of food needs of humanity, given the population growth. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the world population is estimated to be 9 billion people by the year 2050 and where the conditions of climate change can decrease crop yield up to 25%. This triggers greater vulnerability to the neediest population, being the rural sector the one hosting the poorest people. The rural area of Colombia represents 94% of extend the national territory, where 24% of the population lives a scenario of multiple problems that affect the country, such as the armed conflict of more than five decades, the presence of illicit crops and social inequality. Proof of this is that 0.4% of the Agricultural Production Units (UPA) have 41.1% of the total rural area registered by the National Administrative Department of Statistics DANE [3].That is, the land is the property or responsibility of a single producer natural or legal. The concentration of land leads to factors of inequality, where 41.4% of the population is in conditions of poverty and 18% in extreme poverty. These factors deteriorate given the low productivity, where about 36 million hectares are dedicated to livestock production and could have agricultural or forestry use, generating speculation in prices and a greater concentration of land and wealth. In Colombia, of the total of the rural area (excluding natural forests) only 12.7% goes to crops. Approximately 7.12 million hectares have agricultural vocation and whose production supplies the basic food needs of about 70% of the total of the Colombian population, mostly from small and medium-sized farmers. An exponent of colombian agriculture reality and whose production allows the livelihood of millions of people, is the agricultural sector of the potato. The potato is the object of study of this research and whose origin goes back to the Andes mountain range of South America. 7000 years ago, the wild plant was traded around the Titicaca river and began its process of domestication by hunters and gatherers who inhabited the area. Later, around the year 1400 the Incas improved the agricultural advances of their predecessors, where as well as corn, the potato was essential to make sure the food security of their empire that stretched from what is known today as Argentina to Colombia. With the Spanish invasion, the Inca civilization ended, however, the same did not happen with the potato, which spread to Europe between 1532 and 1572, where the aristocracy admired the potato flower but considered it a food not suitable for human consumption. Towards 1770, continental Europe was hit by famine, which opened the way to recognize the potato as a high-value food and food security. From that moment and during the nineteenth century it helped to meet the demographic growth of Europe, the United States and the British region. This is how the potato presents a strong global expansion, occupying the fifth place of the staple foods of higher production, after sugarcane, corn, rice and wheat, where its world production is estimated at 368 million tons per year. In Colombia, 80% of the cultivated area corresponds to agro industrial crops, tubers, bananas and cereals, which together represent 63% of agricultural production. The potato is the fourth product of greater national production [9] and the second when excluding the products of the agro industrial group, such as sugarcane and palm oil. During the last decade, the cultivated area decreased 2.51%. The yield only increased by 0.84% and the production fell 1.69%, behaviour opposite to the growth of the population, which in the same period was 1.32%. The yield of the crop in Colombia, is estimated between 15 and 17 tons per hectare cultivated, a low performance compared to the average presented by the countries with higher productivity, such as Belgium (45.3 tons / ha), New Zealand (45.1 tons / ha), Holland (43.8 tons / ha) and the United States (42.1 tons / ha). In Colombia around 90,000 families [10] are directly related to the production of potatoes, corresponding to 44,966 agricultural production units (UPA) and where the departments of Cundinamarca, Boyacá and Nariño represent 85.3% of national production. According to the amount of hectares planted, the producers are classified as small, medium and large, where the small producer's share represents 90%, with land up to 3 hectares and which generates 45% of the production. Followed by the medium producer with a 7% share, planting between 3 and 10 hectares and 35% of the production. Finally, the large producer with extensions of more than 10 hectares, represents 3% of the producers generating 20% of the production. This is how small farmers have a fundamental role in national production, despite restricted access to technology and better agricultural practices. The potato presents seasonality in its production, depending on the rainy season due to absent artificial irrigation systems, the in elasticity of the demand for prices, and the lack of proper storage systems. This facilitates an unbalanced environment between supply and demand, reflected in a high volatility of prices to the detriment of the producer and which, when added to the high costs of the crop, generates low financial returns. These are reflected in the investments made in hectares cultivated in the next period. These characteristics highlight the need to transform the countryside. They seek to strengthen agricultural competitiveness to consolidate the sector as a generator of employment and wealth for rural inhabitants. These requires comprehensive interventions in territorial planning, provision of public goods and social services, productive inclusion of the farmers, as well as develop mechanisms that bring small producers closer to the city markets. The above frames the challenge of infrastructure as a trigger of develop the field, to reducing transport costs and improving the conservation of products along the logistics chain. Precisely the deficient quantity and quality of infrastructure has generated the appearance of a large number of intermediaries in the supply network, weakening the commercial position of the producers. On the other hand, the low-level of associativity of Colombian agricultural producers, which according to the national agricultural census of 2014, shows how 73.7% of producers declare not belonging to any association or union [3]. This reduces the possibility of access to best practices that improve their conditions, and reducing the potential of their competitiveness and positioning in the logistics network. Through greater synergies, reflected among other aspects, in costs, opportunity and innovation, that is, it produces a greater capacity of the process to serve increasingly dynamic markets. This is how in recent years, and as it has been defined in various world forums, the international community has reaffirmed the need to formulate agricultural strategies that allow its sustained growth and that address develop the rural population. However, despite the interest collective and given the diversity of conditions surrounding agricultural development, it is not enough to stick to traditional policies such as import controls, subsidies or credit policies, among others. That is why this research addresses agricultural development from a perspective of collaborative logistics. In addition to encouraging develop the producer, this allows us to consider global realities such as climate change, the growing need for food, the increase in population and the volatility of the prices of food, which together threaten the food security of nations and where Colombia can play a strategic role, thanks to its natural characteristics, but which need policies and actions to achieve it. This implies the need for developing strategies to face these challenges, considering disintegrate the processes as an over effort among the members of the logistics network, with collaboration as a driving force for competitiveness in value chains being fundamental. The integration of agricultural logistics processes depends directly on the aggregate planning of supply chain requirements and this is where this research recognizes the distribution centers, as central nodes of the network, by directly influencing the planning and development of other logistics activities. These include : the supply of materials and supplies, inventory management, co-packing, added value processes and planning to distribute merchandise, as well as a mediator between the producer and the consumer. In this way, for logistics networks, the challenge arises when balancing the variability of supply and demand conditions with capacity models. To reduce uncertainty in decision-making, in a sector that in addition to technical assistance to improve crop yields, this also requires the formulation and implementation of public policies that encourage better logistical practices to trigger greater producer development. This research has the purpose of analysing the dynamic performance of the agricultural supply of potatoes in Colombia and the incidence of horizontal collaborative processes in distribution centers. This allows defining guidelines to formulate public policies for improving the performance of the rural sector, measured through production costs, crop yield and financial gross margin obtained by the producer. To do the purpose stated above, the problem is addressed through the different chapters, where the first chapter is based on the modeling of the agricultural sector of the potato. This integrates parameters of previous studies associated with the possible effects of the armed post-conflict in the target country and the effect on the crop in conditions of climate change, allowing the generation of diverse scenarios, contrasted through performance measures. Subsequently, in the second chapter, public policy scenarios that impel collaborative relationships between producers through specialized logistics infrastructures, such as distribution centers, are integrated into the modeling of the system. This considers public-private partnerships evaluated at different agreement times and promotion of the State for the associative participation of the producers, where simulate the different scenarios allows us to find the elements to be considered as guidelines to formulate public policies. Finally, the third chapter focuses on the scena

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