Network Interdiction Using Adversarial Traffic Flows

Traditional network interdiction refers to the problem of an interdictor trying to reduce the throughput of network users by removing network edges. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm for network interdiction that models scenarios, such as stealth DoS attack, where the interdiction is performed through injecting adversarial traffic flows. Under this paradigm, we first study the deterministic flow interdiction problem, where the interdictor has perfect knowledge of the operation of network users. We show that the problem is highly inapproximable on general networks and is NP-hard even when the network is acyclic. We then propose an algorithm that achieves a logarithmic approximation ratio and quasi-polynomial time complexity for acyclic networks through harnessing the submodularity of the problem. Next, we investigate the robust flow interdiction problem, which adopts the robust optimization framework to capture the case where definitive knowledge of the operation of network users is not available. We design an approximation framework that integrates the aforementioned algorithm, yielding a quasi-polynomial time procedure with poly-logarithmic approximation ratio for the more challenging robust flow interdiction. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms through simulations, showing that they can be efficiently implemented and yield near-optimal solutions

Robust Flows over Time: Models and Complexity Results

We study dynamic network flows with uncertain input data under a robust optimization perspective. In the dynamic maximum flow problem, the goal is to maximize the flow reaching the sink within a given time horizon $T$, while flow requires a certain travel time to traverse an edge. In our setting, we account for uncertain travel times of flow. We investigate maximum flows over time under the assumption that at most $\Gamma$ travel times may be prolonged simultaneously due to delay. We develop and study a mathematical model for this problem. As the dynamic robust flow problem generalizes the static version, it is NP-hard to compute an optimal flow. However, our dynamic version is considerably more complex than the static version. We show that it is NP-hard to verify feasibility of a given candidate solution. Furthermore, we investigate temporally repeated flows and show that in contrast to the non-robust case (that is, without uncertainties) they no longer provide optimal solutions for the robust problem, but rather yield a worst case optimality gap of at least $T$. We finally show that the optimality gap is at most $O(\eta k \log T)$, where $\eta$ and $k$ are newly introduced instance characteristics and provide a matching lower bound instance with optimality gap $\Omega(\log T)$ and $\eta = k = 1$. The results obtained in this paper yield a first step towards understanding robust dynamic flow problems with uncertain travel times

Ambulance Emergency Response Optimization in Developing Countries

The lack of emergency medical transportation is viewed as the main barrier to the access of emergency medical care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this paper, we present a robust optimization approach to optimize both the location and routing of emergency response vehicles, accounting for uncertainty in travel times and spatial demand characteristic of LMICs. We traveled to Dhaka, Bangladesh, the sixth largest and third most densely populated city in the world, to conduct field research resulting in the collection of two unique datasets that inform our approach. This data is leveraged to develop machine learning methodologies to estimate demand for emergency medical services in a LMIC setting and to predict the travel time between any two locations in the road network for different times of day and days of the week. We combine our robust optimization and machine learning frameworks with real data to provide an in-depth investigation into three policy-related questions. First, we demonstrate that outpost locations optimized for weekday rush hour lead to good performance for all times of day and days of the week. Second, we find that significant improvements in emergency response times can be achieved by re-locating a small number of outposts and that the performance of the current system could be replicated using only 30% of the resources. Lastly, we show that a fleet of small motorcycle-based ambulances has the potential to significantly outperform traditional ambulance vans. In particular, they are able to capture three times more demand while reducing the median response time by 42% due to increased routing flexibility offered by nimble vehicles on a larger road network. Our results provide practical insights for emergency response optimization that can be leveraged by hospital-based and private ambulance providers in Dhaka and other urban centers in LMICs

Disrupting Illicit Supply Networks: New Applications of Operations Research and Data Analytics to End Modern Slavery

Report from a 2017 National Science Foundation workshop on promising research directions for applications of operations research and data analytics toward the disruption of illicit supply networks like human trafficking. The workshop was funded by the NSF’s Operations Engineering (ENG) and the Law & Social Sciences Program (SBE) under grant # CMMI-1726895. The report addresses the opportunity to apply advances from the fields of operations research, management science, analytics, machine learning, and data science toward the development of disruptive interventions against illicit networks. Such an extension of the current research agenda for trafficking would move understanding of such dynamic systems from descriptive characterization and predictive estimation toward improved dynamic operational control.Bureau of Business Researc

Optimization Approaches To Protect Transportation Infrastructure Against Strategic and Random Disruptions

Past and recent events have proved that critical infrastructure are vulnerable to natural catastrophes, unintentional accidents and terrorist attacks. Protecting these systems is critical to avoid loss of life and to guard against economical upheaval. A systematic approach to plan security investments is paramount to guarantee that limited protection resources are utilized in the most effcient manner. This thesis provides a detailed review of the optimization models that have been introduced in the past to identify vulnerabilities and protection plans for critical infrastructure. The main objective of this thesis is to study new and more realistic models to protect transportation infrastructure such as railway and road systems against man made and natural disruptions. Solution algorithms are devised to effciently solve the complex formulations proposed. Finally, several illustrative case studies are analysed to demonstrate how solving these models can be used to support effcient protection decisions

Stochastic network interdiction games

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Boston UniversityNetwork interdiction problems consist of games between an attacker and an intelligent network, where the attacker seeks to degrade network operations while the network adapts its operations to counteract the effects of the attacker. This problem has received significant attention in recent years due to its relevance to military problems and network security. When the attacker's actions achieve uncertain effects, the resulting problems become stochastic network interdiction problems. In this thesis, we develop new algorithms for the solutions of different classes of stochastic network interdiction problems. We first focus on static network interdiction games where the attacker attacks the network once, which will change the network with certain probability. Then the network will maximize the flow from a given source to its destination. The attacker is seeking a strategy which minimizes the expected maximum flow after the attack. For this problem, we develop a new solution algorithm, based on parsimonious integration of branch and bound techniques with increasingly accurate lower bounds. Our method obtains solutions significantly faster than previous approaches in the literature. In the second part, we study a multi-stage interdiction problem where the attacker can attack the network multiple times, and observe the outcomes of its past attacks before selecting a current attack. For this dynamic interdiction game, we use a model-predictive approach based on a lower bound approximation. We develop a new set of performance bounds, which are integrated into a modified branch and bound procedure that extends the single stage approach to multiple stages. We show that our new algorithm is faster than other available methods with simulated experiments. In the last part, we study the nested information game between an intelligent network and an attacker, where the attacker has partial information about the network state, which refers to the availability of arcs. The attacker does not know the exact state, but has a probability distribution over the possible network states. The attacker makes several attempts to attack the network and observes the flows on the network. These observations will update the attacker's knowledge of the network and will be used in selecting the next attack actions. The defender can either send flow on that arc if it survived, or refrain from using it in order to deceive the attacker. For these problems, we develop a faster algorithm, which decomposes this game into a sequence of subgames and solves them to get the equilibrium strategy for the original game. Numerical results show that our method can handle large problems which other available methods fail to solve

Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment with Post-Contingency Corrective Recourse

We consider the problem of minimizing costs in the generation unit commitment problem, a cornerstone in electric power system operations, while enforcing an N-k-e reliability criterion. This reliability criterion is a generalization of the well-known $N$-$k$ criterion, and dictates that at least $(1-e_ j)$ fraction of the total system demand must be met following the failures of $k$ or fewer system components. We refer to this problem as the Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment problem, or CCUC. We present a mixed-integer programming formulation of the CCUC that accounts for both transmission and generation element failures. We propose novel cutting plane algorithms that avoid the need to explicitly consider an exponential number of contingencies. Computational studies are performed on several IEEE test systems and a simplified model of the Western US interconnection network, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods relative to current state-of-the-art