You are what you measure! But are we measuring it right? An empiric analysis of energy access metrics based on a multi-tier approach in Bangladesh

Measuring energy access through binary indicators is insufficient, and often, even misleading. In this work, the SE4ALL global tracking framework, and the recently introduced ESMAP multi-tier approach, is critically discussed analyzing questionnaire based primary data from rural Bangladesh. The performance of different energy interventions is evaluated using the new tier framework. The challenges in its application lie in reliable data collection, adequate gradation of indicators, and an effective algorithm for the tier assignment based on the specified set of attributes. The study showcases very high sensitivities to parameter changes, different algorithms, and data requirements. The results reveal a clear trade-off between capturing the multi-dimensionality of energy access and the simplicity of an easy to use global framework. Suggestions to improve the measuring approach are made and conclusions are drawn for possible implications of the tier framework for different energy service offers in the market. Strengths and weaknesses of the present measurement scheme are discussed and country specific results interpreted through targeted gap analysis for future policy advice

Bioenergy and Minigrids for Sustainable Human Development

Human-caused climate change and deep disparities in human development imperil a prosperous and just future for our planet and the people who live on it. Transforming our society to mitigate global warming offers an opportunity to rebuild energy systems to the benefit of those who are harmed by global inequality today. I examine this opportunity through the lens of two sustainable energy technologies: bioenergy and miniature electricity grids (minigrids). Bioenergy requires land to produce biomass and is inextricably connected to the surrounding environment, agricultural livelihoods, and food system. I apply data science tools to study aspects of land use and food security that may intersect with increasing bioenergy production. I assess the potential to use over one billion hectares of grazing land more intensively with an empirical yield gap analysis technique called climate binning. To clarify how agricultural and socioeconomic characteristics relate to national food security, I study the relative importance of several drivers using simple linear regressions with cross validation and random sampling techniques. Minigrids can supply clean, reliable electricity to un- and under-served communities, but small and hard-to-predict customer loads hamper their financial viability. To improve predictions of daily electricity demand of prospective customers, I test a data-driven approach using customer demographic surveys and machine learning models. I also investigate opportunities to grow loads by stimulating income-generating uses of minigrid electricity in twelve Nigerian agricultural value chains. I conclude by emphasizing the fundamental complementarity of energy and agriculture as change levers for human development, especially in rural communities with low energy access and high poverty. I also provide recommendations to support the effective use of energy to solve pressing agricultural problems and drive multiplicative human development benefits