81,204 research outputs found
Estimating the uncertainty of areal precipitation using data assimilation
We present a method to estimate spatially and temporally variable uncertainty of areal precipitation data. The aim of the method is to merge measurements from different sources, remote sensing and in situ, into a combined precipitation product and to provide an associated dynamic uncertainty estimate. This estimate should provide an accurate representation of uncertainty both in time and space, an adjustment to additional observations merged into the product through data assimilation, and flow dependency. Such a detailed uncertainty description is important for example to generate precipitation ensembles for probabilistic hydrological modelling or to specify accurate error covariances when using precipitation observations for data assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The presented method uses the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter and an ensemble nowcasting model. The model provides information about the precipitation displacement over time and is continuously updated by assimilation of observations. In this way, the precipitation product and its uncertainty estimate provided by the nowcasting ensemble evolve consistently in time and become flow-dependent. The method is evaluated in a proof of concept study focusing on weather radar data of four precipitation events. The study demonstrates that the dynamic areal uncertainty estimate outperforms a constant benchmark uncertainty value in all cases for one of the evaluated scores, and in half the number of cases for the other score. Thus, the flow dependency introduced by the coupling of data assimilation and nowcasting enables a more accurate spatial and temporal distribution of uncertainty. The mixed results achieved in the second score point out the importance of a good probabilistic nowcasting scheme for the performance of the method
Task Runtime Prediction in Scientific Workflows Using an Online Incremental Learning Approach
Many algorithms in workflow scheduling and resource provisioning rely on the
performance estimation of tasks to produce a scheduling plan. A profiler that
is capable of modeling the execution of tasks and predicting their runtime
accurately, therefore, becomes an essential part of any Workflow Management
System (WMS). With the emergence of multi-tenant Workflow as a Service (WaaS)
platforms that use clouds for deploying scientific workflows, task runtime
prediction becomes more challenging because it requires the processing of a
significant amount of data in a near real-time scenario while dealing with the
performance variability of cloud resources. Hence, relying on methods such as
profiling tasks' execution data using basic statistical description (e.g.,
mean, standard deviation) or batch offline regression techniques to estimate
the runtime may not be suitable for such environments. In this paper, we
propose an online incremental learning approach to predict the runtime of tasks
in scientific workflows in clouds. To improve the performance of the
predictions, we harness fine-grained resources monitoring data in the form of
time-series records of CPU utilization, memory usage, and I/O activities that
are reflecting the unique characteristics of a task's execution. We compare our
solution to a state-of-the-art approach that exploits the resources monitoring
data based on regression machine learning technique. From our experiments, the
proposed strategy improves the performance, in terms of the error, up to
29.89%, compared to the state-of-the-art solutions.Comment: Accepted for presentation at main conference track of 11th IEEE/ACM
International Conference on Utility and Cloud Computin
Limited Visibility and Uncertainty Aware Motion Planning for Automated Driving
Adverse weather conditions and occlusions in urban environments result in
impaired perception. The uncertainties are handled in different modules of an
automated vehicle, ranging from sensor level over situation prediction until
motion planning. This paper focuses on motion planning given an uncertain
environment model with occlusions. We present a method to remain collision free
for the worst-case evolution of the given scene. We define criteria that
measure the available margins to a collision while considering visibility and
interactions, and consequently integrate conditions that apply these criteria
into an optimization-based motion planner. We show the generality of our method
by validating it in several distinct urban scenarios
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