On-Line Learning of Linear Dynamical Systems: Exponential Forgetting in Kalman Filters

Kalman filter is a key tool for time-series forecasting and analysis. We show that the dependence of a prediction of Kalman filter on the past is decaying exponentially, whenever the process noise is non-degenerate. Therefore, Kalman filter may be approximated by regression on a few recent observations. Surprisingly, we also show that having some process noise is essential for the exponential decay. With no process noise, it may happen that the forecast depends on all of the past uniformly, which makes forecasting more difficult. Based on this insight, we devise an on-line algorithm for improper learning of a linear dynamical system (LDS), which considers only a few most recent observations. We use our decay results to provide the first regret bounds w.r.t. to Kalman filters within learning an LDS. That is, we compare the results of our algorithm to the best, in hindsight, Kalman filter for a given signal. Also, the algorithm is practical: its per-update run-time is linear in the regression depth

Unconstrained Dynamic Regret via Sparse Coding

Motivated by the challenge of nonstationarity in sequential decision making, we study Online Convex Optimization (OCO) under the coupling of two problem structures: the domain is unbounded, and the comparator sequence $u_1,\ldots,u_T$ is arbitrarily time-varying. As no algorithm can guarantee low regret simultaneously against all comparator sequences, handling this setting requires moving from minimax optimality to comparator adaptivity. That is, sensible regret bounds should depend on certain complexity measures of the comparator relative to one's prior knowledge. This paper achieves a new type of these adaptive regret bounds via a sparse coding framework. The complexity of the comparator is measured by its energy and its sparsity on a user-specified dictionary, which offers considerable versatility. Equipped with a wavelet dictionary for example, our framework improves the state-of-the-art bound (Jacobsen & Cutkosky, 2022) by adapting to both ($i$) the magnitude of the comparator average $||\bar u||=||\sum_{t=1}^Tu_t/T||$, rather than the maximum $\max_t||u_t||$; and ($ii$) the comparator variability $\sum_{t=1}^T||u_t-\bar u||$, rather than the uncentered sum $\sum_{t=1}^T||u_t||$. Furthermore, our analysis is simpler due to decoupling function approximation from regret minimization.Comment: Split the two results from the previous version. Expanded the results on Haar wavelets. Improved writin

Online Self-Concordant and Relatively Smooth Minimization, With Applications to Online Portfolio Selection and Learning Quantum States

Consider an online convex optimization problem where the loss functions are self-concordant barriers, smooth relative to a convex function $h$, and possibly non-Lipschitz. We analyze the regret of online mirror descent with $h$. Then, based on the result, we prove the following in a unified manner. Denote by $T$ the time horizon and $d$ the parameter dimension. 1. For online portfolio selection, the regret of $\widetilde{\text{EG}}$, a variant of exponentiated gradient due to Helmbold et al., is $\tilde{O} ( T^{2/3} d^{1/3} )$ when $T > 4 d / \log d$. This improves on the original $\tilde{O} ( T^{3/4} d^{1/2} )$ regret bound for $\widetilde{\text{EG}}$. 2. For online portfolio selection, the regret of online mirror descent with the logarithmic barrier is $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T d})$. The regret bound is the same as that of Soft-Bayes due to Orseau et al. up to logarithmic terms. 3. For online learning quantum states with the logarithmic loss, the regret of online mirror descent with the log-determinant function is also $\tilde{O} ( \sqrt{T d} )$. Its per-iteration time is shorter than all existing algorithms we know.Comment: 19 pages, 1 figur

Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift