From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Improving the resilience of post-disaster water distribution systems using a dynamic optimization framework

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Improving the resilience of water distribution systems (WDSs) to handle natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes) is a critical step towards sustainable urban water management. This requires the water utility to be able to respond quickly to such disaster events and in an organized manner, to prioritize the use of available resources to restore service rapidly whilst minimizing the negative impacts. Many methods have been developed to evaluate the WDS resilience, but few efforts are made so far to improve resilience of a post-disaster WDS through identifying optimal sequencing of recovery actions. To address this gap, a new dynamic optimization framework is proposed here where the resilience of a post-disaster WDS is evaluated using six different metrics. A tailored Genetic Algorithm is developed to solve the complex optimization problem driven by these metrics. The proposed framework is demonstrated using a real-world WDS with 6,064 pipes. Results obtained show that the proposed framework successfully identifies near-optimal sequencing of recovery actions for this complex WDS. The gained insights, conditional on the specific attributes of the case study, include: (i) the near-optimal sequencing of recovery strategy heavily depends on the damage properties of the WDS, (ii) replacements of damaged elements tend to be scheduled at the intermediate-late stages of the recovery process due to their long operation time, and (iii) interventions to damaged pipe elements near critical facilities (e.g., hospitals) should not be necessarily the first priority to recover due to complex hydraulic interactions within the WDS

Agent-based transportation planning compared with scheduling heuristics

Here we consider the problem of dynamically assigning vehicles to transportation orders that have di¤erent time windows and should be handled in real time. We introduce a new agent-based system for the planning and scheduling of these transportation networks. Intelligent vehicle agents schedule their own routes. They interact with job agents, who strive for minimum transportation costs, using a Vickrey auction for each incoming order. We use simulation to compare the on-time delivery percentage and the vehicle utilization of an agent-based planning system to a traditional system based on OR heuristics (look-ahead rules, serial scheduling). Numerical experiments show that a properly designed multi-agent system may perform as good as or even better than traditional methods