23,640 research outputs found
Dynamic density estimation with diffusive Dirichlet mixtures
We introduce a new class of nonparametric prior distributions on the space of
continuously varying densities, induced by Dirichlet process mixtures which
diffuse in time. These select time-indexed random functions without jumps,
whose sections are continuous or discrete distributions depending on the choice
of kernel. The construction exploits the widely used stick-breaking
representation of the Dirichlet process and induces the time dependence by
replacing the stick-breaking components with one-dimensional Wright-Fisher
diffusions. These features combine appealing properties of the model, inherited
from the Wright-Fisher diffusions and the Dirichlet mixture structure, with
great flexibility and tractability for posterior computation. The construction
can be easily extended to multi-parameter GEM marginal states, which include,
for example, the Pitman--Yor process. A full inferential strategy is detailed
and illustrated on simulated and real data.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/14-BEJ681 in the Bernoulli
(http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical
Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm
A Bayesian Multivariate Functional Dynamic Linear Model
We present a Bayesian approach for modeling multivariate, dependent
functional data. To account for the three dominant structural features in the
data--functional, time dependent, and multivariate components--we extend
hierarchical dynamic linear models for multivariate time series to the
functional data setting. We also develop Bayesian spline theory in a more
general constrained optimization framework. The proposed methods identify a
time-invariant functional basis for the functional observations, which is
smooth and interpretable, and can be made common across multivariate
observations for additional information sharing. The Bayesian framework permits
joint estimation of the model parameters, provides exact inference (up to MCMC
error) on specific parameters, and allows generalized dependence structures.
Sampling from the posterior distribution is accomplished with an efficient
Gibbs sampling algorithm. We illustrate the proposed framework with two
applications: (1) multi-economy yield curve data from the recent global
recession, and (2) local field potential brain signals in rats, for which we
develop a multivariate functional time series approach for multivariate
time-frequency analysis. Supplementary materials, including R code and the
multi-economy yield curve data, are available online
A cognitive hierarchy model of learning in networks
This paper proposes a method for estimating a hierarchical model of bounded rationality in games of learning in networks. A cognitive hierarchy comprises a set of cognitive types whose behavior ranges from random to substantively rational. SpeciÖcally, each cognitive type in the model corresponds to the number of periods in which economic agents process new information. Using experimental data, we estimate type distributions in a variety of task environments and show how estimated distributions depend on the structural properties of the environments. The estimation results identify signiÖcant levels of behavioral hetero-geneity in the experimental data and overall conÖrm comparative static conjectures on type distributions across task environments. Surprisingly, the model replicates the aggregate pat-terns of the behavior in the data quite well. Finally, we found that the dominant type in the data is closely related to Bayes-rational behavior
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