SUNRISE: Drought monitoring in China - a brief review

Drought is one of the most complex and costly natural hazards. It develops slowly and can affect a large area meaning it can be difficult to pinpoint the start and/or the end of an event. Drought is primarily driven by a deficit in precipitation but an additional level of complexity is introduced when these deficits in precipitation propagate to other parts of the hydrological cycle such as soil moisture, river flows and groundwater levels over different time scales

Drought monitoring and early warning in China: a review of research to pave the way for operational systems

Geographic and socio-economic factors combined make China particularly vulnerable to droughts. Here we review academic literature to assess publication trends on the topics of drought monitoring and early warning in China, exploring the common themes and recent advances presented. Literature searches for the 1970–2017 period were made for a range of search terms relating to drought monitoring. It was found that publications on these topics started to appear sporadically in 1989 and have increased rapidly since the early 2000s, with the rate of publication increasing over the last eight years. The scope of studies varied, often with the spatial scale considered: at the national scale, studies focused on evaluating existing indices, while new indices were developed and tested at the regional scale – relating, in general, to monitoring agricultural and meteorological droughts. At the catchment scale, novel monitoring techniques were developed, often incorporating other data types such as modelled data or soil moisture measurements. National scale operational drought monitoring in China is currently being improved and updated. However, although operational systems are discussed in the literature, there is a still a disconnect between theory and practice with the most recent advances not yet operationalised. Here, we identify the methods and approaches which can be translated from the experimental case study scale to the national operational scale

Modelling agricultural drought: a review of latest advances in big data technologies

Open Access Journal; Published online: 12 Oct 2022This article reviews the main recent applications of multi-sensor remote sensing and Artificial Intelligence techniques in multivariate modelling of agricultural drought. The study focused mainly on three fundamental aspects, namely descriptive modelling, predictive modelling, and spatial modelling of expected risks and vulnerability to drought. Thus, out of 417 articles across all studies on drought, 226 articles published from 2010 to 2022 were analyzed to provide a global overview of the current state of knowledge on multivariate drought modelling using the inclusion criteria. The main objective is to review the recent available scientific evidence regarding multivariate drought modelling based on the joint use of geospatial technologies and artificial intelligence. The analysis focused on the different methods used, the choice of algorithms and the most relevant variables depending on whether they are descriptive or predictive models. Criteria such as the skill score, the given game complexity used, and the nature of validation data were considered to draw the main conclusions. The results highlight the very heterogeneous nature of studies on multivariate modelling of agricultural drought, and the very original nature of studies on multivariate modelling of agricultural drought in the recent literature. For future studies, in addition to scientific advances in prospects, case studies and comparative studies appear necessary for an in-depth analysis of the reproducibility and operational applicability of the different approaches proposed for spatial and temporal modelling of agricultural drought

A new station-enabled multi-sensor integrated index for drought monitoring

Remote sensing data are frequently incorporated into drought indices used widely by research and management communities to assess and diagnose current and historic drought events. The integrated drought indices combine multiple indicators and reflect drought conditions from a range of perspectives (i.e., hydrological, agricultural, meteorological). However, the success of most remote sensing based drought indices is constrained by geographic regions since their performance strongly depends on environmental factors such as land cover type, temperature, and soil moisture. To address this limitation, we propose a framework for a new integrated drought index that performs well across diverse climate regions. Our framework uses a geographically weighted regression model and principal component analysis to composite a range of vegetation and meteorological indices derived from multiple remote sensing platforms and in-situ drought indices developed from meteorological station data. Our new index, which we call the station-enabled Geographically Independent Integrated Drought Index (GIIDI_station), compared favorably with other common drought indices such as Microwave Integrated Drought Index (MIDI), Optimized Meteorological Drought Index (OMDI), Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI). Using Pearson correlation analyses between remote sensing and in-situ drought indices during the growing season (April to October) from 2002 to 2011, we show that GIIDI_station had the best correlations with in-situ drought indices. Across the entire study region of the continental United States, the performance of GIIDI_station was not affected by common environmental factors such as precipitation, temperature, land cover and soil conditions. Taken together, our results suggest that GIIDI_station has considerable potential to improve our ability of monitoring drought at regional scales, provided local meteorological station data are available

Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Agricultural Drought in Upper Progo Watershed Based on Remote Sensing and Land Physical Characteristics

Agricultural drought is alarmed by meteorological drought characterized by lower year-to-year rainfall. Under long period and continuous water deficits, plants may demonstrate stress symptoms and wilt or die. Furthermore, agricultural drought leads to crop failures and threaten the food security of an area. Progo Hulu sub-watershed is a major agricultural area in Temanggung Regency. Spatial-temporal pattern-based information about agricultural drought can be a basis for decision making in drought mitigation. This study aims to analyze spatial and temporal distribution patterns of drought, analyze the physical characteristics of land and their influence on drought pattern, and establish a prediction model of drought distribution patterns based on four physical characteristics of the land. Landsat 8 imagery is used to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural drought in Upper Progo watershed using an improved Temperature vegetation Dryness Index (iTVDI). Slope, land use, landform, and soil texture are the physical characteristics of land as the variables to determine the most influential factor of drought pattern. They are analyzed using multiple regression analysis techniques. Pixel samples are obtained through purposive sampling method based on land units. The results reveal that the spatial-temporal distribution of agricultural drought occurs rapidly on the slopes and foothills of Sumbing and Sindoro. These areas have the highest average value of the iTVDI index. Agricultural drought extends gradually in line with the number of days without rainfall. Landform is a physical characteristic that most influences the distribution of agricultural drought. The established model by utilizing four variables of physical characteristics generates an average value which almost similar to the iTVDI value produced by remote sensing data. The model can be useful to estimate drought distribution based on the number of days without rainfall

Assessment of Drought in Grasslands: Spatio – Temporal Analyses of Soil Moisture and Extreme Climate Effects in Southwestern Mongolia

Soil moisture plays an essential key role in the assessment of hydrological and meteorological droughts that may affect a wide area of the natural grassland and the groundwater resource. The surface soil moisture distribution as a function of time and space is highly relevant for hydrological, ecological, and agricultural applications, especially in water-limited or drought-prone regions. However, gauging soil moisture is challenging because of its high variability. While point-scale in-situ measurements are scarce, the remote sensing tools remain the only practical means to obtain regional and global-scale soil moisture estimates. A Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) is the first satellite mission ever designed to gauge the Earth’s surface soil moisture (SM) at the near-daily time scales. This work aims to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of SMOS soil moisture, determine the effect of the climate extremes on the vegetation growth cycle, and demonstrate the feasibility of using our drought model (GDI) the Gobi Drought Index. The GDI is based on the combination of SMOS soil moisture and several products from the MODIS satellite. We used this index for hydro-meteorological drought monitoring in Southwestern Mongolia. Firstly, we validated bias-corrected SMOS soil moisture for Mongolia by the in-situ soil moisture observations 2000 to 2015. Validation shows satisfactory results for assessing drought and water-stress conditions in the grasslands of Mongolia. The correlation analysis between SMOS and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) index in the various ecosystems shows a high correlation between the bias-corrected, monthly-averaged SMOS and NDVI data (R2 > 0.81). Further analysis of the SMOS and in situ SM data revealed a good match between spatial SM distribution and the rainfall events over Southwestern Mongolia. For example, during dry 2015, SM was decreased by approximately 30% across the forest-steppe and steppe areas. We also notice that both NDVI and rainfall can be used as indicators for grassland monitoring in Mongolia. The second part of this research, analyzed several dzud (specific type of climate winter disaster) events (2000, 2001, 2002, and 2010) related to drought, to comprehend the spatial and temporal variability of vegetation conditions in the Gobi region of Mongolia. We determined how these extreme climatic events affect vegetation cover and local grazing conditions using the seasonal aridity index (aAIZ), NDVI, and livestock mortality data. The NDVI is used as an indicator of vegetation activity and growth. Its spatial and temporal pattern is expected to reflect the changes in surface vegetation density and status induced by water-deficit conditions. The Gobi steppe areas showed the highest degree of vulnerability to climate, with a drastic decline of grassland in arid areas. We found that under certain dzud conditions, rapid regeneration of vegetation can occur. A thick snow layer acting as a water reservoir combined with high livestock losses can lead to an increase of the maximum August NDVI. The snowy winters can cause a 10 to 20-day early peak in NDVI and the following increase in vegetation growth. However, during a year with dry winter conditions, the vegetation growth phase begins later due to water deficiency and the entire year has a weaker vegetation growth. Generally, livestock loss and the reduction of grazing pressure was played a crucial role in vegetation recovery after extreme climatic events in Mongolia. At the last stage of our study, we develop an integrated Gobi drought index (GDI), derived from SMOS and LST, PET, and NDVI MODIS products. GDI can incorporate both, the meteorological and soil moisture drought patterns and sufficiently well represent overall drought conditions in the arid lands. Specifically, the monthly GDI and 1-month standardized precipitation index SPI showed significant correlations. Both of them are useful for drought monitoring in semi-arid lands. But, the SPI requires in situ data that are sparse, while the GDI is free from the meteorological network restriction. Consequently, we compared the GDI with other drought indices (VSWI, NDDI, NDWI, and in-situ SM). Comparison of these drought indices with the GDI allowed assessing the droughts’ behavior from different angles and quantified better their intensity. The GDI maps at fine-scale (< 1km) permit extending the applicability of our drought model to regional and local studies. These maps were generated from 2000 to 2018 across Southwestern Mongolia. Fine-scale GDI drought maps are currently limited to the whole territory for Mongolia but the algorithm is dynamic and can be transported to any region. The GDI drought index can be served as a useful tool for prevention services to detect extremely dry soil and vegetation conditions posing a risk of drought and groundwater resource depletion. It was able to detect the drought events that were underestimated by the National Drought Watch System in Mongolia. In summary, with the help of satellite, climatological, and geophysical data, the integrated GDI can be beneficial for vegetation drought stress characterization and can be a useful tool to monitor the effectiveness of pasture land restoration management practices for Mongolian livelihoods. The future application of the GDI can be extended to monitor potential impacts on water resources and agriculture in Mongolia, which have been impacted by long periods of drought

Multi-sensor remote sensing for drought characterization: current status, opportunities and a roadmap for the future

Satellite based remote sensing offers one of the few approaches able to monitor the spatial and temporal development of regional to continental scale droughts. A unique element of remote sensing platforms is their multi-sensor capability, which enhances the capacity for characterizing drought from a variety of perspectives. Such aspects include monitoring drought influences on vegetation and hydrological responses, as well as assessing sectoral impacts (e.g., agriculture). With advances in remote sensing systems along with an increasing range of platforms available for analysis, this contribution provides a timely and systematic review of multi-sensor remote sensing drought studies, with a particular focus on drought related datasets, drought related phenomena and mechanisms, and drought modeling. To explore this topic, we first present a comprehensive summary of large-scale remote sensing datasets that can be used for multi-sensor drought studies. We then review the role of multi-sensor remote sensing for exploring key drought related phenomena and mechanisms, including vegetation responses to drought, land-atmospheric feedbacks during drought, drought-induced tree mortality, drought-related ecosystem fires, post-drought recovery and legacy effects, flash drought, as well as drought trends under climate change. A summary of recent modeling advances towards developing integrated multi-sensor remote sensing drought indices is also provided. We conclude that leveraging multi-sensor remote sensing provides unique benefits for regional to global drought studies, particularly in: 1) revealing the complex drought impact mechanisms on ecosystem components; 2) providing continuous long-term drought related information at large scales; 3) presenting real-time drought information with high spatiotemporal resolution; 4) providing multiple lines of evidence of drought monitoring to improve modeling and prediction robustness; and 5) improving the accuracy of drought monitoring and assessment efforts. We specifically highlight that more mechanism-oriented drought studies that leverage a combination of sensors and techniques (e.g., optical, microwave, hyperspectral, LiDAR, and constellations) across a range of spatiotemporal scales are needed in order to progress and advance our understanding, characterization and description of drought in the future

Investigating the relationship between the inter-annual variability of satellite-derived vegetation phenology and a proxy of biomass production in the Sahel

In the Sahel region, moderate to coarse spatial resolution remote sensing time series are used in early warning monitoring systems with the aim of detecting unfavorable crop and pasture conditions and informing stakeholders about impending food security risks. Despite growing evidence that vegetation productivity is directly related to phenology, most approaches to estimate such risks do not explicitly take into account the actual timing of vegetation growth and development. The date of the start of the season (SOS) or of the peak canopy density can be assessed by remote sensing techniques in a timely manner during the growing season. However, there is limited knowledge about the relationship between vegetation biomass production and these variables at regional scale. This study describes a first attempt to increase our understanding of such a relationship through the analysis of phenological variables retrieved from SPOT-VEGETATION time series of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR). Two key phenological variables (growing season length, GSL; timing of SOS) and the maximum value of FAPAR attained during the growing season (Peak) are analyzed as potentially related to a proxy of biomass production (CFAPAR, the cumulative value of FAPAR during the growing season). GSL, SOS and Peak all show different spatial patterns of correlation with CFAPAR. In particular, GSL shows a high and positive correlation with CFAPAR over the whole Sahel (mean r = 0.78). The negative correlation between delays in SOS and CFAPAR is stronger (mean r = -0.71) in the southern agricultural band of the Sahel, while the positive correlation between Peak FAPAR and CFAPAR is higher in the northern and more arid grassland region (mean r = 0.75). The consistency of the results and the actual link between remote-sensing derived phenological parameters and biomass production were evaluated using field measurements of aboveground herbaceous biomass of rangelands in Senegal. This study demonstrates the potential of phenological variables as indicators of biomass production. Nevertheless, the strength of the relation between phenological variables and biomass production is not universal and indeed quite variable geographically, with large scattered areas not showing a statistically significant relationship.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource