Computational driver behavior models for vehicle safety applications

The aim of this thesis is to investigate how human driving behaviors can be formally described in mathematical models intended for online personalization of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) or offline virtual safety evaluations. Both longitudinal (braking) and lateral (steering) behaviors in routine driving and emergencies are addressed. Special attention is paid to driver glance behavior in critical situations and the role of peripheral vision.First, a hybrid framework based on autoregressive models with exogenous input (ARX-models) is employed to predict and classify driver control in real time. Two models are suggested, one targeting steering behavior and the other longitudinal control behavior. Although the predictive performance is unsatisfactory, both models can distinguish between different driving styles.Moreover, a basic model for drivers\u27 brake initiation and modulation in critical longitudinal situations (specifically for rear-end conflicts) is constructed. The model is based on a conceptual framework of noisy evidence accumulation and predictive processing. Several model extensions related to gaze behavior are also proposed and successfully fitted to real-world crashes and near-crashes. The influence of gaze direction is further explored in a driving simulator study, showing glance response times to be independent of the glance\u27s visual eccentricity, while brake response times increase for larger gaze angles, as does the rate of missed target detections.Finally, the potential of a set of metrics to quantify subjectively perceived risk in lane departure situations to explain drivers\u27 recovery steering maneuvers was investigated. The most influential factors were the relative yaw angle and splay angle error at steering initiation. Surprisingly, it was observed that drivers often initiated the recovery steering maneuver while looking off-road.To sum up, the proposed models in this thesis facilitate the development of personalized ADASs and contribute to trustworthy virtual evaluations of current, future, and conceptual safety systems. The insights and ideas contribute to an enhanced, human-centric system development, verification, and validation process. In the long term, this will likely lead to improved vehicle safety and a reduced number of severe injuries and fatalities in traffic

Less is Sometimes More – The Impact of In-Vehicle Information Systems on Perceived Range Stress

Recent research has emphasized a new dimension of driver stress, the concern of getting stranded with an electric vehicle due to a depleted battery, referred to as range stress. One promising solution is seen in the appropriate provision of relevant information through in-vehicle information systems. We aim to investigate how individuals perceive the interaction of these systems with a particular focus on range stress. Thus, we employed an experimental research design in real traffic situations consisting of 70 participants. We put participants in a critical range situation and showed that the provision of volatile and too much range-related information leads to increased range stress perception, and hence, negatively affects the willingness to use electric vehicles. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge, as it points to the importance of accounting for potential dysfunctional consequences of increased use of information systems

Making overtaking cyclists safer: Driver intention models in threat assessment and decision-making of advanced driver assistance system

Introduction: The number of cyclist fatalities makes up 3% of all fatalities globally and 7.8% in the European Union. Cars overtaking cyclists on rural roads are complex situations. Miscommunication and misunderstandings between road users may lead to crashes and severe injuries, particularly to cyclists, due to lack of protection. When making a car overtaking a cyclist safer, it is important to understand the interaction between road users and use in the development of an Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS). Methods: First, a literature review was carried out on driver and interaction modeling. A Unified Modeling Language (UML) framework was introduced to operationalize the interaction definition to be used in the development of ADAS. Second, the threat assessment and decision-making algorithm were developed that included the driver intention model. The counterfactual simulation was carried out on artificial crash data and field data to understand the intention-based ADAS\u27s performance and crash avoidance compared to a conventional system. The method focused on cars overtaking cyclists when an oncoming vehicle was present. Results: An operationalized definition of interaction was proposed to highlight the interaction between road users. The framework proposed uses UML diagrams to include interaction in the existing driver modeling approaches. The intention-based ADAS results showed that using the intention model, earlier warning or emergency braking intervention can be activated to avoid a potential rear-end collision with a cyclist without increasing more false activations than a conventional system. Conclusion: The approach used to integrate the driver intention model in developing an intention-based ADAS can improve the system\u27s effectiveness without compromising its acceptance. The intention-based ADAS has implications towards reducing worldwide road fatalities and in achieving sustainable development goals and car assessment program

On Statistical Methods for Safety Validation of Automated Vehicles

Automated vehicles (AVs) are expected to bring safer and more convenient transport in the future. Consequently, before introducing AVs at scale to the general public, the required levels of safety should be shown with evidence. However, statistical evidence generated by brute force testing using safety drivers in real traffic does not scale well. Therefore, more efficient methods are needed to evaluate if an AV exhibits acceptable levels of risk.This thesis studies the use of two methods to evaluate the AV\u27s safety performance efficiently. Both methods are based on assessing near-collision using threat metrics to estimate the frequency of actual collisions. The first method, called subset simulation, is here used to search the scenario parameter space in a simulation environment to estimate the probability of collision for an AV under development. More specifically, this thesis explores how the choice of threat metric, used to guide the search, affects the precision of the failure rate estimation. The result shows significant differences between the metrics and that some provide precise and accurate estimates.The second method is based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT), which is used to model the behavior of rare events. In this thesis, near-collision scenarios are identified using threat metrics and then extrapolated to estimate the frequency of actual collisions. The collision frequency estimates from different types of threat metrics are assessed when used with EVT for AV safety validation. Results show that a metric relating to the point where a collision is unavoidable works best and provides credible estimates. In addition, this thesis proposes how EVT and threat metrics can be used as a proactive safety monitor for AVs deployed in real traffic. The concept is evaluated in a fictive development case and compared to a reactive approach of counting the actual events. It is found that the risk exposure of releasing a non-safe function can be significantly reduced by applying the proposed EVT monitor

Probabilistic Threat Assessment and Driver Modeling in Collision Avoidance Systems

This paper presents a probabilistic framework for decision-making in collision avoidance systems, targeting all types of collision scenarios with all types of single road users and objects. Decisions on when and how to assist the driver are made by taking a Bayesian approach to estimate how a collision can be avoided by an autonomous brake intervention, and the probability that the driver will consider the intervention as motivated. The driver model makes it possible to initiate earlier braking when it is estimated that the driver acceptance for interventions is high. The framework and the proposed driver model are evaluated in several scenarios, using authentic tracker data and a differential GPS. It is shown that the driver model can increase the benefit of collision avoidance systems — particularly in traffic situations where the future trajectory of another road user is hard for the driver to predict, e.g. when a playing child enters the roadway

Implementation and Evaluation of a Cooperative Vehicle-to-Pedestrian Safety Application

While the development of Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) safety applications based on Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) has been extensively undergoing standardization for more than a decade, such applications are extremely missing for Vulnerable Road Users (VRUs). Nonexistence of collaborative systems between VRUs and vehicles was the main reason for this lack of attention. Recent developments in Wi-Fi Direct and DSRC-enabled smartphones are changing this perspective. Leveraging the existing V2V platforms, we propose a new framework using a DSRC-enabled smartphone to extend safety benefits to VRUs. The interoperability of applications between vehicles and portable DSRC enabled devices is achieved through the SAE J2735 Personal Safety Message (PSM). However, considering the fact that VRU movement dynamics, response times, and crash scenarios are fundamentally different from vehicles, a specific framework should be designed for VRU safety applications to study their performance. In this article, we first propose an end-to-end Vehicle-to-Pedestrian (V2P) framework to provide situational awareness and hazard detection based on the most common and injury-prone crash scenarios. The details of our VRU safety module, including target classification and collision detection algorithms, are explained next. Furthermore, we propose and evaluate a mitigating solution for congestion and power consumption issues in such systems. Finally, the whole system is implemented and analyzed for realistic crash scenarios