Doubly Robust Off-policy Value Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning

We study the problem of off-policy value evaluation in reinforcement learning (RL), where one aims to estimate the value of a new policy based on data collected by a different policy. This problem is often a critical step when applying RL in real-world problems. Despite its importance, existing general methods either have uncontrolled bias or suffer high variance. In this work, we extend the doubly robust estimator for bandits to sequential decision-making problems, which gets the best of both worlds: it is guaranteed to be unbiased and can have a much lower variance than the popular importance sampling estimators. We demonstrate the estimator's accuracy in several benchmark problems, and illustrate its use as a subroutine in safe policy improvement. We also provide theoretical results on the hardness of the problem, and show that our estimator can match the lower bound in certain scenarios.Comment: 14 pages; 4 figures; ICML 201

More Robust Doubly Robust Off-policy Evaluation

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning (RL), where the goal is to estimate the performance of a policy from the data generated by another policy(ies). In particular, we focus on the doubly robust (DR) estimators that consist of an importance sampling (IS) component and a performance model, and utilize the low (or zero) bias of IS and low variance of the model at the same time. Although the accuracy of the model has a huge impact on the overall performance of DR, most of the work on using the DR estimators in OPE has been focused on improving the IS part, and not much on how to learn the model. In this paper, we propose alternative DR estimators, called more robust doubly robust (MRDR), that learn the model parameter by minimizing the variance of the DR estimator. We first present a formulation for learning the DR model in RL. We then derive formulas for the variance of the DR estimator in both contextual bandits and RL, such that their gradients w.r.t.~the model parameters can be estimated from the samples, and propose methods to efficiently minimize the variance. We prove that the MRDR estimators are strongly consistent and asymptotically optimal. Finally, we evaluate MRDR in bandits and RL benchmark problems, and compare its performance with the existing methods

Double Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Off-Policy Evaluation in Markov Decision Processes

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. We consider for the first time the semiparametric efficiency limits of OPE in Markov decision processes (MDPs), where actions, rewards, and states are memoryless. We show existing OPE estimators may fail to be efficient in this setting. We develop a new estimator based on cross-fold estimation of $q$-functions and marginalized density ratios, which we term double reinforcement learning (DRL). We show that DRL is efficient when both components are estimated at fourth-root rates and is also doubly robust when only one component is consistent. We investigate these properties empirically and demonstrate the performance benefits due to harnessing memorylessness

Off-Policy Exploitability-Evaluation in Two-Player Zero-Sum Markov Games

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is the problem of evaluating new policies using historical data obtained from a different policy. In the recent OPE context, most studies have focused on single-player cases, and not on multi-player cases. In this study, we propose OPE estimators constructed by the doubly robust and double reinforcement learning estimators in two-player zero-sum Markov games. The proposed estimators project exploitability that is often used as a metric for determining how close a policy profile (i.e., a tuple of policies) is to a Nash equilibrium in two-player zero-sum games. We prove the exploitability estimation error bounds for the proposed estimators. We then propose the methods to find the best candidate policy profile by selecting the policy profile that minimizes the estimated exploitability from a given policy profile class. We prove the regret bounds of the policy profiles selected by our methods. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed estimators through experiments

Horizon: Facebook's Open Source Applied Reinforcement Learning Platform

In this paper we present Horizon, Facebook's open source applied reinforcement learning (RL) platform. Horizon is an end-to-end platform designed to solve industry applied RL problems where datasets are large (millions to billions of observations), the feedback loop is slow (vs. a simulator), and experiments must be done with care because they don't run in a simulator. Unlike other RL platforms, which are often designed for fast prototyping and experimentation, Horizon is designed with production use cases as top of mind. The platform contains workflows to train popular deep RL algorithms and includes data preprocessing, feature transformation, distributed training, counterfactual policy evaluation, optimized serving, and a model-based data understanding tool. We also showcase and describe real examples where reinforcement learning models trained with Horizon significantly outperformed and replaced supervised learning systems at Facebook.Comment: 10 page

Safe Policy Improvement with Baseline Bootstrapping

This paper considers Safe Policy Improvement (SPI) in Batch Reinforcement Learning (Batch RL): from a fixed dataset and without direct access to the true environment, train a policy that is guaranteed to perform at least as well as the baseline policy used to collect the data. Our approach, called SPI with Baseline Bootstrapping (SPIBB), is inspired by the knows-what-it-knows paradigm: it bootstraps the trained policy with the baseline when the uncertainty is high. Our first algorithm, $\Pi_b$-SPIBB, comes with SPI theoretical guarantees. We also implement a variant, $\Pi_{\leq b}$-SPIBB, that is even more efficient in practice. We apply our algorithms to a motivational stochastic gridworld domain and further demonstrate on randomly generated MDPs the superiority of SPIBB with respect to existing algorithms, not only in safety but also in mean performance. Finally, we implement a model-free version of SPIBB and show its benefits on a navigation task with deep RL implementation called SPIBB-DQN, which is, to the best of our knowledge, the first RL algorithm relying on a neural network representation able to train efficiently and reliably from batch data, without any interaction with the environment.Comment: accepted as a long oral at ICML201

Learning When-to-Treat Policies

Many applied decision-making problems have a dynamic component: The policymaker needs not only to choose whom to treat, but also when to start which treatment. For example, a medical doctor may choose between postponing treatment (watchful waiting) and prescribing one of several available treatments during the many visits from a patient. We develop an "advantage doubly robust" estimator for learning such dynamic treatment rules using observational data under the assumption of sequential ignorability. We prove welfare regret bounds that generalize results for doubly robust learning in the single-step setting, and show promising empirical performance in several different contexts. Our approach is practical for policy optimization, and does not need any structural (e.g., Markovian) assumptions

Data-Efficient Off-Policy Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning

In this paper we present a new way of predicting the performance of a reinforcement learning policy given historical data that may have been generated by a different policy. The ability to evaluate a policy from historical data is important for applications where the deployment of a bad policy can be dangerous or costly. We show empirically that our algorithm produces estimates that often have orders of magnitude lower mean squared error than existing methods---it makes more efficient use of the available data. Our new estimator is based on two advances: an extension of the doubly robust estimator (Jiang and Li, 2015), and a new way to mix between model based estimates and importance sampling based estimates

Behaviour Policy Estimation in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation: Calibration Matters

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating a behaviour policy for use in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) when the true behaviour policy is unknown. Via a series of empirical studies, we demonstrate how accurate OPE is strongly dependent on the calibration of estimated behaviour policy models: how precisely the behaviour policy is estimated from data. We show how powerful parametric models such as neural networks can result in highly uncalibrated behaviour policy models on a real-world medical dataset, and illustrate how a simple, non-parametric, k-nearest neighbours model produces better calibrated behaviour policy estimates and can be used to obtain superior importance sampling-based OPE estimates.Comment: Accepted to workshop on Machine Learning for Causal Inference, Counterfactual Prediction, and Autonomous Action at ICML 201

Data-Efficient Policy Evaluation Through Behavior Policy Search

We consider the task of evaluating a policy for a Markov decision process (MDP). The standard unbiased technique for evaluating a policy is to deploy the policy and observe its performance. We show that the data collected from deploying a different policy, commonly called the behavior policy, can be used to produce unbiased estimates with lower mean squared error than this standard technique. We derive an analytic expression for the optimal behavior policy --- the behavior policy that minimizes the mean squared error of the resulting estimates. Because this expression depends on terms that are unknown in practice, we propose a novel policy evaluation sub-problem, behavior policy search: searching for a behavior policy that reduces mean squared error. We present a behavior policy search algorithm and empirically demonstrate its effectiveness in lowering the mean squared error of policy performance estimates.Comment: Accepted to ICML 2017; Extended version; 15 page