Incorporating statistical model error into the calculation of acceptability prices of contingent claims

The determination of acceptability prices of contingent claims requires the choice of a stochastic model for the underlying asset price dynamics. Given this model, optimal bid and ask prices can be found by stochastic optimization. However, the model for the underlying asset price process is typically based on data and found by a statistical estimation procedure. We define a confidence set of possible estimated models by a nonparametric neighborhood of a baseline model. This neighborhood serves as ambiguity set for a multi-stage stochastic optimization problem under model uncertainty. We obtain distributionally robust solutions of the acceptability pricing problem and derive the dual problem formulation. Moreover, we prove a general large deviations result for the nested distance, which allows to relate the bid and ask prices under model ambiguity to the quality of the observed data.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figure

Complexity-Free Generalization via Distributionally Robust Optimization

Established approaches to obtain generalization bounds in data-driven optimization and machine learning mostly build on solutions from empirical risk minimization (ERM), which depend crucially on the functional complexity of the hypothesis class. In this paper, we present an alternate route to obtain these bounds on the solution from distributionally robust optimization (DRO), a recent data-driven optimization framework based on worst-case analysis and the notion of ambiguity set to capture statistical uncertainty. In contrast to the hypothesis class complexity in ERM, our DRO bounds depend on the ambiguity set geometry and its compatibility with the true loss function. Notably, when using maximum mean discrepancy as a DRO distance metric, our analysis implies, to the best of our knowledge, the first generalization bound in the literature that depends solely on the true loss function, entirely free of any complexity measures or bounds on the hypothesis class

Predict-then-Calibrate: A New Perspective of Robust Contextual LP

Contextual optimization, also known as predict-then-optimize or prescriptive analytics, considers an optimization problem with the presence of covariates (context or side information). The goal is to learn a prediction model (from the training data) that predicts the objective function from the covariates, and then in the test phase, solve the optimization problem with the covariates but without the observation of the objective function. In this paper, we consider a risk-sensitive version of the problem and propose a generic algorithm design paradigm called predict-then-calibrate. The idea is to first develop a prediction model without concern for the downstream risk profile or robustness guarantee, and then utilize calibration (or recalibration) methods to quantify the uncertainty of the prediction. While the existing methods suffer from either a restricted choice of the prediction model or strong assumptions on the underlying data, we show the disentangling of the prediction model and the calibration/uncertainty quantification has several advantages. First, it imposes no restriction on the prediction model and thus fully unleashes the potential of off-the-shelf machine learning methods. Second, the derivation of the risk and robustness guarantee can be made independent of the choice of the prediction model through a data-splitting idea. Third, our paradigm of predict-then-calibrate applies to both (risk-sensitive) robust and (risk-neutral) distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulations. Theoretically, it gives new generalization bounds for the contextual LP problem and sheds light on the existing results of DRO for contextual LP. Numerical experiments further reinforce the advantage of the predict-then-calibrate paradigm in that an improvement on either the prediction model or the calibration model will lead to a better final performance.Comment: 30 pages, 8 figure

Distributionally Robust Optimization: A Review

The concepts of risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and robust optimization have developed significantly over the last decade. Statistical learning community has also witnessed a rapid theoretical and applied growth by relying on these concepts. A modeling framework, called distributionally robust optimization (DRO), has recently received significant attention in both the operations research and statistical learning communities. This paper surveys main concepts and contributions to DRO, and its relationships with robust optimization, risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and function regularization

A Survey of Contextual Optimization Methods for Decision Making under Uncertainty

Recently there has been a surge of interest in operations research (OR) and the machine learning (ML) community in combining prediction algorithms and optimization techniques to solve decision-making problems in the face of uncertainty. This gave rise to the field of contextual optimization, under which data-driven procedures are developed to prescribe actions to the decision-maker that make the best use of the most recently updated information. A large variety of models and methods have been presented in both OR and ML literature under a variety of names, including data-driven optimization, prescriptive optimization, predictive stochastic programming, policy optimization, (smart) predict/estimate-then-optimize, decision-focused learning, (task-based) end-to-end learning/forecasting/optimization, etc. Focusing on single and two-stage stochastic programming problems, this review article identifies three main frameworks for learning policies from data and discusses their strengths and limitations. We present the existing models and methods under a uniform notation and terminology and classify them according to the three main frameworks identified. Our objective with this survey is to both strengthen the general understanding of this active field of research and stimulate further theoretical and algorithmic advancements in integrating ML and stochastic programming