Probabilistic projections of the future climate for the world and the continental USA

In this paper, we study possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the 21st century climate on the continental USA using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework. Climate change simulations use an emissions scenario developed with the IGSM’s Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model. The scenario represents a global emission path consistent with the current view on the trajectories of technological and economic development. The estimates of possible changes in climate are based on an ensemble of 400 simulations with the IGSM’s MIT Earth System Model (MESM), a model of intermediate complexity. Regional changes over the USA were obtained using statistical downscaling that incorporates results from the simulations with the CMIP5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The results show that under the considered emissions scenario, surface air temperature averaged over the continental USA increases by 2.6 to 4.4K by the last decade of the 21st century (90% probability interval) relative to pre-industrial temperatures, compare to 2.3 to 3.4K for the whole globe. Corresponding changes in precipitation are -0.65 to 0.34 mm/day and 0.13 to 0.22 mm/day, respectively. There is significant variation in the geographical distribution of those changes among the ensemble simulations.This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under grant #DE-FG02-94ER61937 and other government, industry and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. For a complete list of sponsors and U.S. government funding sources, see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Uncertainty Studies in Global and Regional Climate Change: The IGSM-CAM

http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publicationsThis paper describes an integrated assessment framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the IGSM-CAM incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from uncertainties intrinsic to the economic model, from parametric uncertainty to uncertainty in future climate policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate response: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. Thus, the IGSM-CAM is a computationally efficient framework to explore the uncertainty in future global and regional climate change due to uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions. This study further presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent by 2100) and three sets of climate parameters. The chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change. As such, this study presents new estimates of the 90% probability interval of regional climate change for different emissions scenarios. These results underscore the large uncertainty in regional climate change resulting from uncertainty in climate parameters and emissions, and the statistical uncertainty due to natural variability.The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by a number of federal agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors. (For the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current.html)

IMPACT: Investigation of Mobile-user Patterns Across University Campuses using WLAN Trace Analysis

We conduct the most comprehensive study of WLAN traces to date. Measurements collected from four major university campuses are analyzed with the aim of developing fundamental understanding of realistic user behavior in wireless networks. Both individual user and inter-node (group) behaviors are investigated and two classes of metrics are devised to capture the underlying structure of such behaviors. For individual user behavior we observe distinct patterns in which most users are 'on' for a small fraction of the time, the number of access points visited is very small and the overall on-line user mobility is quite low. We clearly identify categories of heavy and light users. In general, users exhibit high degree of similarity over days and weeks. For group behavior, we define metrics for encounter patterns and friendship. Surprisingly, we find that a user, on average, encounters less than 6% of the network user population within a month, and that encounter and friendship relations are highly asymmetric. We establish that number of encounters follows a biPareto distribution, while friendship indexes follow an exponential distribution. We capture the encounter graph using a small world model, the characteristics of which reach steady state after only one day. We hope for our study to have a great impact on realistic modeling of network usage and mobility patterns in wireless networks.Comment: 16 pages, 31 figure

Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Clean and Renewable Energy Standards for Electricity

http://globalchange.mit.edu/research/publications/reports/allWe examine the efficiency and distributional impacts of greenhouse gas policies directed toward the electricity sector in a model that links a “top-down” general equilibrium representation of the U.S. economy with a “bottom-up” electricity-sector dispatch and capacity expansion model. Our modeling framework features a high spatial and temporal resolution of electricity supply and demand, including renewable energy resources and generating technologies, while representing CO2 abatement options in non-electric sectors as well as economy-wide interactions. We find that clean and renewable energy standards entail substantial efficiency costs compared to an economy-wide carbon pricing policy such as a cap-and-trade program or a carbon tax, and that these policies are regressive across the income distribution. The geographical distribution of cost is characterized by high burdens for regions that depend on non-qualifying generation fuels, primarily coal. Regions with abundant hydro power and wind resources, and a relatively clean generation mix in the absence of policy, are among the least impacted. An important shortcoming of energy standards vis-`a-vis a first-best carbon pricing policy is that no revenue is generated that can be used to alter unintended distributional consequences.The authors acknowledge the support of the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, which is operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Colorado-Boulder, the Colorado School of Mines, the Colorado State University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Stanford University under grant NREL 6A502020 “Integration of a Computable General Equilibrium Model with an Electricity Sector Optimization Model to Assess the Economic Impacts of U.S. Climate Policy”. We further acknowledge support of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a combination of government, industry, and foundation funding, the MIT Energy Initiative, and additional support for this work from a coalition of industrial sponsors (for a complete list see: http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all)

Forschungsschiff METEOR Reise Nr. 61 (2004) - Nordost-Atlantik

R/V METEOR Cruise No. 61 was divided into three different legs, which all focused on the NEAtlantic to the west of Ireland from the Porcupine Seabight towards the Rockall Bank. Legs 1 and 3 concentrated on geo-biological studies on the carbonate mounds in this region, which are covered by a unique cold water coral fauna. Leg 2 dealt with seismic investigations in order to investigate the extension processes that led to the development of the Porcupine rift basin. The foci of the individual legs were on the following themes. M61-1 was a multidisciplinary cruise addressing biological, paleo-geological and hydrographical scientific objectives in the carbonate mound provinces west of Ireland in the eastern Porcupine Seabight and on the Rockall Bank. The cruise started in Lisbon (Portugal) and ended in Cork (Ireland). M61-1 activities were embedded within the ESF-DFG MOUNDFORCE project of the EUROMARGINS Programme. Together with the succeeding M61-3 cruise, these Meteor activities document Germany´s strong scientific and logistic support for the success of this challenging programme. Investigations are also designed as a preparatory cruise for the EUproject HERMES (Hotspot Ecosystem Research on the Margins of European Seas; start April 2005). All institutions participating in M61-1 are partners in HERMES Work package 2 "Coral Reef and Carbonate Mound Systems". M 61-2 was directed at researching the earth's crust in the vicinity of the Porcupine rift basin. During this leg, seismic research has been undertaken in the Porcupine Basin west of Ireland, an area that represents a natural laboratory for the investigation of extensional processes. Firstly, both sides of a rift basin occurring in close proximity to each other could have been studied here, allowing questions about the symmetry of extension to be addressed by several east-west profiles parallel to the direction of extension. Secondly, the amount of extension increases from north to south, so a series of east-west cross sections on different latitudes has provided information on crustal structure during variable extension. The spatial changes between these sections also represent the temporal development of the rift through continued extension. In order to achieve these research goals, a series of east-west oriented wide angle reflection profiles in the Porcupine Basin has been acquired. These profiles aid in the explanation of extensional processes and their development through continued extension. They also address insufficiently explained questions about the initiation of large scale magmatism and intrusion, the onset of mantle serpentinisation and the development of detachment faults. M61-3 During this leg, the only recently discovered 'carbonate mounds' on the NWEuropean continental margin have been investigated, which represent unique geo- and ecosystems for European waters. The broad scientific interest that is directed at these mounds is reflected in three EU-projects, which until recently almost exclusively concentrated their efforts on the mounds, as well as the currently operating ESF-EUROMARGINS project MOUNDFORCE M 61-3 focused on the use of a 'Remotely Operated Vehicle' (ROV) for the investigation of the carbonate mounds. The primary tasks of Bremen's QUEST ROV were a detailed characterization of individual mound structures, selective sample collection and the retrieval of sensor systems placed at the seafloor one year before. These ROV tasks have been supplemented by hydro-acoustic measurements and conventional sediment sampling in order to work - in close collaboration with M61-1 - on the main research focuses of the MOUNDFORCE project: (a) analysis of the environmental factors that drive the development of the 'carbonate mounds', (b) surveying the benthic communities in dependence of changing environmental factors and (c) investigations to the stabilization and lithification of the mound sediments

Distributional Impacts of a U.S. Greenhouse Gas Policy: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Carbon Pricing

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We develop a new model of the U.S., the U.S. Regional Energy Policy (USREP) model that is resolved for large states and regions of the U.S. and by income class and apply the model to investigate a $15 per ton CO2 equivalent price on greenhouse gas emissions. Previous estimates of distributional impacts of carbon pricing have been done outside of the model simulation and have been based on energy expenditure patterns of households in different regions and of different income levels. By estimating distributional effects within the economic model, we include the effects of changes in capital returns and wages on distribution and find that the effects are significant and work against the expenditure effects. We find the following: First, while results based only on energy expenditure have shown carbon pricing to be regressive we find the full distributional effect to be neutral or slightly progressive. This demonstrates the importance of tracing through all economic impacts and not just focusing on spending side impacts. Second, the ultimate impact of such a policy on households depends on how allowances, or the revenue raised from auctioning them, is used. Free distribution to firms would be highly regressive, benefiting higher income households and forcing lower income households to bear the full cost of the policy and what amounts to a transfer of wealth to higher income households. Lump sum distribution through equal-sized household rebates would make lower income households absolutely better off while shifting the costs to higher income households. Schemes that would cut taxes are generally slightly regressive but improve somewhat the overall efficiency of the program. Third, proposed legislation would distribute allowances to local distribution companies (electricity and natural gas distributors) and public utility commissions would then determine how the value of those allowances was used. A significant risk in such a plan is that distribution to households might be perceived as lowering utility rates That reduced the efficiency of the policy we examined by 40 percent. Finally, the states on the coasts bear little cost or can benefit because of the distribution of allowance revenue while mid-America and southern states bear the highest costs. This regional pattern reflects energy consumption and energy production difference among states. Use of allowance revenue to cut taxes generally exacerbates these regional differences because coastal states are also generally higher income states, and those with higher incomes benefit more from tax cuts.MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a combination of government, industry, and foundation funding, the MIT Energy Initiative, and additional support for this work from a coalition of industrial sponsors