Development of a Fast and Detailed Model of Urban-Scale Chemical and Physical Processing

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).A reduced form metamodel has been produced to simulate the effects of physical, chemical, and meteorological processing of highly reactive trace species in hypothetical urban areas, which is capable of efficiently simulating the urban concentration, surface deposition, and net mass flux of these species. A polynomial chaos expansion and the probabilistic collocation method have been used for the metamodel, and its coefficients were fit so as to be applicable under a broad range of present-day and future conditions. The inputs upon which this metamodel have been formed are based on a combination of physical properties (average temperature, diurnal temperature range, date, and latitude), anthropogenic properties (patterns and amounts of emissions), and the surrounding environment (background concentrations of certain species). Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the inputs were used to run a detailed parent chemical and physical model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), thousands of times. Outputs from these runs were used in turn to both determine the coefficients of and test the precision of the metamodel, as compared with the detailed parent model. The deviations between the metamodel and the parent mode for many important species (O3, CO, NOx, and BC) were found to have a weighted RMS error less than 10% in all cases, with many of the specific cases having a weighted RMS error less than 1%. Some of the other important species (VOCs, PAN, OC, and sulfate aerosol) usually have their weighted RMS error less than 10% as well, except for a small number of cases. These cases, in which the highly non-linear nature of the processing is too large for the third order metamodel to give an accurate fit, are explained in terms of the complexity and non-linearity of the physical, chemical, and meteorological processing. In addition, for those species in which good fits have not been obtained, the program has been designed in such a way that values which are not physically realistic are flagged. Sensitivity tests have been performed, to observe the response of the 16 metamodels (4 different meteorologies and 4 different urban types) to a broad set of potential inputs. These results were compared with observations of ozone, CO, formaldehyde, BC, and PM10 from a few well observed urban areas, and in most of the cases, the output distributions were found to be within ranges of the observations. Overall, a set of efficient and robust metamodels have been generated which are capable of simulating the effects of various physical, chemical, and meteorological processing, and capable of determining the urban concentrations, mole fractions, and fluxes of species, important to human health and the climate.Federal Agencies and industries that sponsor the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Development of Distributed Research Center for analysis of regional climatic and environmental changes

We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes in the Northern extratropical areas. The DRC should provide the specialists working in climate related sciences and decision-makers with accurate and detailed climatic characteristics for the selected area and reliable and affordable tools for their in-depth statistical analysis and studies of the effects of climate change. Within the framework of the project, new approaches to cloud processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) inherent to climate change studies are developed and deployed on technical platforms of both institutions. We discuss here the state of the art in this domain, describe web based information-computational systems developed by the partners, justify the methods chosen to reach the project goal, and briefly list the results obtained so far

A coupled terrestrial and aquatic biogeophysical model of the Upper Merrimack River watershed, New Hampshire, to inform ecosystem services evaluation and management under climate and land-cover change

Accurate quantification of ecosystem services (ES) at regional scales is increasingly important for making informed decisions in the face of environmental change. We linked terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem process models to simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrological and water quality characteristics related to ecosystem services. The linked model integrates two existing models (a forest ecosystem model and a river network model) to establish consistent responses to changing drivers across climate, terrestrial, and aquatic domains. The linked model is spatially distributed, accounts for terrestrial–aquatic and upstream–downstream linkages, and operates on a daily time-step, all characteristics needed to understand regional responses. The model was applied to the diverse landscapes of the Upper Merrimack River watershed, New Hampshire, USA. Potential changes in future environmental functions were evaluated using statistically downscaled global climate model simulations (both a high and low emission scenario) coupled with scenarios of changing land cover (centralized vs. dispersed land development) for the time period of 1980–2099. Projections of climate, land cover, and water quality were translated into a suite of environmental indicators that represent conditions relevant to important ecosystem services and were designed to be readily understood by the public. Model projections show that climate will have a greater influence on future aquatic ecosystem services (flooding, drinking water, fish habitat, and nitrogen export) than plausible changes in land cover. Minimal changes in aquatic environmental indicators are predicted through 2050, after which the high emissions scenarios show intensifying impacts. The spatially distributed modeling approach indicates that heavily populated portions of the watershed will show the strongest responses. Management of land cover could attenuate some of the changes associated with climate change and should be considered in future planning for the region

Environmental science applications with Rapid Integrated Mapping and analysis System (RIMS)

The Rapid Integrated Mapping and analysis System (RIMS) has been developed at the University of New Hampshire as an online instrument for multidisciplinary data visualization, analysis and manipulation with a focus on hydrological applications. Recently it was enriched with data and tools to allow more sophisticated analysis of interdisciplinary data. Three different examples of specific scientific applications with RIMS are demonstrated and discussed. Analysis of historical changes in major components of the Eurasian pan-Arctic water budget is based on historical discharge data, gridded observational meteorological fields, and remote sensing data for sea ice area. Express analysis of the extremely hot and dry summer of 2010 across European Russia is performed using a combination of near-real time and historical data to evaluate the intensity and spatial distribution of this event and its socioeconomic impacts. Integrative analysis of hydrological, water management, and population data for Central Asia over the last 30 years provides an assessment of regional water security due to changes in climate, water use and demography. The presented case studies demonstrate the capabilities of RIMS as a powerful instrument for hydrological and coupled human-natural systems research

Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model that simulated climate and chemistry effects of IPCC SRES emissions. We use EPPA to assess the human health damages (including acute mortality and morbidity outcomes) caused by ozone pollution and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (SRES A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that acute mortalities will exceed 2 million. We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.United States Department of Energy, Office of Science (BER) grants DE-FG02-94ER61937 and DE-FG02-93ER61677, the United States Environmental Protection Agency grant EPA-XA-83344601-0, and the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment

The report presents a review of methods used in Europe for trend analysis, climate change projections and non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. In addition, main findings of the analyses are presented, including a comparison of trend analysis results and climate change projections. Existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation that incorporate climate change are reviewed. The report concludes with a discussion of research needs on non-stationary frequency analysis for considering the effects of climate change and inclusion in design guidelines. Trend analyses are reported for 21 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. A large number of national and regional trend studies have been carried out. Most studies are based on statistical methods applied to individual time series of extreme precipitation or extreme streamflow using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test or regression analysis. Some studies have been reported that use field significance or regional consistency tests to analyse trends over larger areas. Some of the studies also include analysis of trend attribution. The studies reviewed indicate that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant increasing trends at regional or national level of extreme streamflow. For some smaller regions increases in extreme streamflow are reported. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows. Climate change projections have been reported for 14 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. The review shows various approaches for producing climate projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency based on alternative climate forcing scenarios, climate projections from available global and regional climate models, methods for statistical downscaling and bias correction, and alternative hydrological models. A large number of the reported studies are based on an ensemble modelling approach that use several climate forcing scenarios and climate model projections in order to address the uncertainty on the projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Some studies also include alternative statistical downscaling and bias correction methods and hydrological modelling approaches. Most studies reviewed indicate an increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trend of extreme precipitation. Hydrological projections of peak flows and flood frequency show both positive and negative changes. Large increases in peak flows are reported for some catchments with rainfall-dominated peak flows, whereas a general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are reported for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows. The latter is consistent with the observed trends. The review of existing guidelines in Europe on design floods and design rainfalls shows that only few countries explicitly address climate change. These design guidelines are based on climate change adjustment factors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on design return period and projection horizon. The review indicates a gap between the need for considering climate change impacts in design and actual published guidelines that incorporate climate change in extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Most of the studies reported are based on frequency analysis assuming stationary conditions in a certain time window (typically 30 years) representing current and future climate. There is a need for developing more consistent non-stationary frequency analysis methods that can account for the transient nature of a changing climate

Measuring Welfare Loss Caused by Air Pollution in Europe: A CGE Analysis

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).To evaluate the socio-economic impacts of air pollution, we develop an integrated approach based on computable general equilibrium (CGE). Applying our approach to Europe shows that even there, where air quality is relatively high compared with other parts of the world, health-related damages caused by air pollution are substantial. We estimate that in 2005, air pollution in Europe caused a consumption loss of around 220 billion Euro (year 2000 prices, around 3 percent of consumption level) and a social welfare loss of around 370 billion Euro, measured as the sum of lost consumption and leisure (around 2 percent of welfare level). In addition, we estimated that a set of 2020-targeting air quality improvement policy scenarios, which are proposed in the 2005 CAFE program, would bring 18 European countries as a whole a welfare gain of 37 to 49 billion Euro (year 2000 prices) in year 2020 alone.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Impacts of air pollution on human and ecosystem health, and implications for the National Emission Ceilings Directive. Insights from Italy

Across the 28 EU member states there were nearly half a million premature deaths in 2015 as a result of exposure to PM2.5, O3 and NO2. To set the target for air quality levels and avoid negative impacts for human and ecosystems health, the National Emission Ceilings Directive (NECD, 2016/2284/EU) sets objectives for emission reduction for SO2, NOx, NMVOCs, NH3 and PM2.5 for each Member State as percentages of reduction to be reached in 2020 and 2030 compared to the emission levels into 2005. One of the innovations of NECD is Article 9, that mentions the issue of “monitoring air pollution impacts” on ecosystems. We provide a clear picture of what is available in term of monitoring network for air pollution impacts on Italian ecosystems, summarizing what has been done to control air pollution and its effects on different ecosystems in Italy. We provide an overview of the impacts of air pollution on health of the Italian population and evaluate opportunities and implementation of Article 9 in the Italian context, as a case study beneficial for all Member States. The results showed that SO42− deposition strongly decreased in all monitoring sites in Italy over the period 1999–2017, while NO3− and NH4+ decreased more slightly. As a consequence, most of the acid-sensitive sites which underwent acidification in the 1980s partially recovered. The O3 concentration at forest sites showed a decreasing trend. Consequently, AOT40 (the metric identified to protect vegetation from ozone pollution) showed a decrease, even if values were still above the limit for forest protection (5000 ppb h−1), while PODy (flux-based metric under discussion as new European legislative standard for forest protection) showed an increase. National scale studies pointed out that PM10 and NO2 induced about 58,000 premature deaths (year 2005), due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. The network identified for Italy contains a good number of monitoring sites (6 for terrestrial ecosystem monitoring, 4 for water bodies monitoring and 11 for ozone impact monitoring) distributed over the territory and will produce a high number of monitored parameters for the implementation of the NECD