101,910 research outputs found
Active network management for electrical distribution systems: problem formulation, benchmark, and approximate solution
With the increasing share of renewable and distributed generation in
electrical distribution systems, Active Network Management (ANM) becomes a
valuable option for a distribution system operator to operate his system in a
secure and cost-effective way without relying solely on network reinforcement.
ANM strategies are short-term policies that control the power injected by
generators and/or taken off by loads in order to avoid congestion or voltage
issues. Advanced ANM strategies imply that the system operator has to solve
large-scale optimal sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty. For
example, decisions taken at a given moment constrain the future decisions that
can be taken and uncertainty must be explicitly accounted for because neither
demand nor generation can be accurately forecasted. We first formulate the ANM
problem, which in addition to be sequential and uncertain, has a nonlinear
nature stemming from the power flow equations and a discrete nature arising
from the activation of power modulation signals. This ANM problem is then cast
as a stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear program, as well as second-order cone
and linear counterparts, for which we provide quantitative results using state
of the art solvers and perform a sensitivity analysis over the size of the
system, the amount of available flexibility, and the number of scenarios
considered in the deterministic equivalent of the stochastic program. To foster
further research on this problem, we make available at
http://www.montefiore.ulg.ac.be/~anm/ three test beds based on distribution
networks of 5, 33, and 77 buses. These test beds contain a simulator of the
distribution system, with stochastic models for the generation and consumption
devices, and callbacks to implement and test various ANM strategies
Process algebra for performance evaluation
This paper surveys the theoretical developments in the field of stochastic process algebras, process algebras where action occurrences may be subject to a delay that is determined by a random variable. A huge class of resource-sharing systems – like large-scale computers, client–server architectures, networks – can accurately be described using such stochastic specification formalisms. The main emphasis of this paper is the treatment of operational semantics, notions of equivalence, and (sound and complete) axiomatisations of these equivalences for different types of Markovian process algebras, where delays are governed by exponential distributions. Starting from a simple actionless algebra for describing time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains, we consider the integration of actions and random delays both as a single entity (like in known Markovian process algebras like TIPP, PEPA and EMPA) and as separate entities (like in the timed process algebras timed CSP and TCCS). In total we consider four related calculi and investigate their relationship to existing Markovian process algebras. We also briefly indicate how one can profit from the separation of time and actions when incorporating more general, non-Markovian distributions
HMM based scenario generation for an investment optimisation problem
This is the post-print version of the article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2012 Springer-Verlag.The Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a standard method for modelling financial time series. An important criticism of this method is that the parameters of the GBM are assumed to be constants; due to this fact, important features of the time series, like extreme behaviour or volatility clustering cannot be captured. We propose an approach by which the parameters of the GBM are able to switch between regimes, more precisely they are governed by a hidden Markov chain. Thus, we model the financial time series via a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a GBM in each state. Using this approach, we generate scenarios for a financial portfolio optimisation problem in which the portfolio CVaR is minimised. Numerical results are presented.This study was funded by NET ACE at OptiRisk Systems
Hybrid performance modelling of opportunistic networks
We demonstrate the modelling of opportunistic networks using the process
algebra stochastic HYPE. Network traffic is modelled as continuous flows,
contact between nodes in the network is modelled stochastically, and
instantaneous decisions are modelled as discrete events. Our model describes a
network of stationary video sensors with a mobile ferry which collects data
from the sensors and delivers it to the base station. We consider different
mobility models and different buffer sizes for the ferries. This case study
illustrates the flexibility and expressive power of stochastic HYPE. We also
discuss the software that enables us to describe stochastic HYPE models and
simulate them.Comment: In Proceedings QAPL 2012, arXiv:1207.055
Efficient Parallel Statistical Model Checking of Biochemical Networks
We consider the problem of verifying stochastic models of biochemical
networks against behavioral properties expressed in temporal logic terms. Exact
probabilistic verification approaches such as, for example, CSL/PCTL model
checking, are undermined by a huge computational demand which rule them out for
most real case studies. Less demanding approaches, such as statistical model
checking, estimate the likelihood that a property is satisfied by sampling
executions out of the stochastic model. We propose a methodology for
efficiently estimating the likelihood that a LTL property P holds of a
stochastic model of a biochemical network. As with other statistical
verification techniques, the methodology we propose uses a stochastic
simulation algorithm for generating execution samples, however there are three
key aspects that improve the efficiency: first, the sample generation is driven
by on-the-fly verification of P which results in optimal overall simulation
time. Second, the confidence interval estimation for the probability of P to
hold is based on an efficient variant of the Wilson method which ensures a
faster convergence. Third, the whole methodology is designed according to a
parallel fashion and a prototype software tool has been implemented that
performs the sampling/verification process in parallel over an HPC
architecture
MOLNs: A cloud platform for interactive, reproducible and scalable spatial stochastic computational experiments in systems biology using PyURDME
Computational experiments using spatial stochastic simulations have led to
important new biological insights, but they require specialized tools, a
complex software stack, as well as large and scalable compute and data analysis
resources due to the large computational cost associated with Monte Carlo
computational workflows. The complexity of setting up and managing a
large-scale distributed computation environment to support productive and
reproducible modeling can be prohibitive for practitioners in systems biology.
This results in a barrier to the adoption of spatial stochastic simulation
tools, effectively limiting the type of biological questions addressed by
quantitative modeling. In this paper, we present PyURDME, a new, user-friendly
spatial modeling and simulation package, and MOLNs, a cloud computing appliance
for distributed simulation of stochastic reaction-diffusion models. MOLNs is
based on IPython and provides an interactive programming platform for
development of sharable and reproducible distributed parallel computational
experiments
Generating a Performance Stochastic Model from UML Specifications
Since its initiation by Connie Smith, the process of Software Performance
Engineering (SPE) is becoming a growing concern. The idea is to bring
performance evaluation into the software design process. This suitable
methodology allows software designers to determine the performance of software
during design. Several approaches have been proposed to provide such
techniques. Some of them propose to derive from a UML (Unified Modeling
Language) model a performance model such as Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) or
Stochastic process Algebra (SPA) models. Our work belongs to the same category.
We propose to derive from a UML model a Stochastic Automata Network (SAN) in
order to obtain performance predictions. Our approach is more flexible due to
the SAN modularity and its high resemblance to UML' state-chart diagram
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