Power Imbalance Detection in Smart Grid via Grid Frequency Deviations: A Hidden Markov Model based Approach

We detect the deviation of the grid frequency from the nominal value (i.e., 50 Hz), which itself is an indicator of the power imbalance (i.e., mismatch between power generation and load demand). We first pass the noisy estimates of grid frequency through a hypothesis test which decides whether there is no deviation, positive deviation, or negative deviation from the nominal value. The hypothesis testing incurs miss-classification errors---false alarms (i.e., there is no deviation but we declare a positive/negative deviation), and missed detections (i.e., there is a positive/negative deviation but we declare no deviation). Therefore, to improve further upon the performance of the hypothesis test, we represent the grid frequency's fluctuations over time as a discrete-time hidden Markov model (HMM). We note that the outcomes of the hypothesis test are actually the emitted symbols, which are related to the true states via emission probability matrix. We then estimate the hidden Markov sequence (the true values of the grid frequency) via maximum likelihood method by passing the observed/emitted symbols through the Viterbi decoder. Simulations results show that the mean accuracy of Viterbi algorithm is at least $5$\% greater than that of hypothesis test.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures, accepted by IEEE VTC conference, Fall 2018 editio

Evaluating Resilience of Electricity Distribution Networks via A Modification of Generalized Benders Decomposition Method

This paper presents a computational approach to evaluate the resilience of electricity Distribution Networks (DNs) to cyber-physical failures. In our model, we consider an attacker who targets multiple DN components to maximize the loss of the DN operator. We consider two types of operator response: (i) Coordinated emergency response; (ii) Uncoordinated autonomous disconnects, which may lead to cascading failures. To evaluate resilience under response (i), we solve a Bilevel Mixed-Integer Second-Order Cone Program which is computationally challenging due to mixed-integer variables in the inner problem and non-convex constraints. Our solution approach is based on the Generalized Benders Decomposition method, which achieves a reasonable tradeoff between computational time and solution accuracy. Our approach involves modifying the Benders cut based on structural insights on power flow over radial DNs. We evaluate DN resilience under response (ii) by sequentially computing autonomous component disconnects due to operating bound violations resulting from the initial attack and the potential cascading failures. Our approach helps estimate the gain in resilience under response (i), relative to (ii)

Fast and Reliable Primary Frequency Reserves From Refrigerators with Decentralized Stochastic Control

Due to increasing shares of renewable energy sources, more frequency reserves are required to maintain power system stability. In this paper, we present a decentralized control scheme that allows a large aggregation of refrigerators to provide Primary Frequency Control (PFC) reserves to the grid based on local frequency measurements and without communication. The control is based on stochastic switching of refrigerators depending on the frequency deviation. We develop methods to account for typical lockout constraints of compressors and increased power consumption during the startup phase. In addition, we propose a procedure to dynamically reset the thermostat temperature limits in order to provide reliable PFC reserves, as well as a corrective temperature feedback loop to build robustness to biased frequency deviations. Furthermore, we introduce an additional randomization layer in the controller to account for thermostat resolution limitations, and finally, we modify the control design to account for refrigerator door openings. Extensive simulations with actual frequency signal data and with different aggregation sizes, load characteristics, and control parameters, demonstrate that the proposed controller outperforms a relevant state-of-the-art controller.Comment: 44 pages, 17 figures, 9 Tables, submitted to IEEE Transactions on Power System