Technology Trajectory Mapping Using Data Envelopment Analysis: The Ex-ante use of Disruptive Innovation Theory on Flat Panel Technologies

In this paper, we propose a technology trajectory mapping approach using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) that scrutinizes technology progress patterns from multidimensional perspectives. Literature reviews on technology trajectory mappings have revealed that it is imperative to identify key performance measures that can represent different value propositions and then apply them to the investigation of technology systems in order to capture indications of the future disruption. The proposed approach provides a flexibility not only to take multiple characteristics of technology systems into account but also to deal with various tradeoffs among technology attributes by imposing weight restrictions in the DEA model. The application of this approach to the flat panel technologies is provided to give a strategic insight for the players involved

Measurement framework for assessing disruptive innovations

Assessing potential disruptiveness of innovations is an important but challenging task for incumbents. However, the extant literature focuses only on technological and marketplace aspects, and most of the documented methods tend to be case specific. In this study, we present a multidimensional measurement framework to assess the disruptive potential of product innovations. The framework is designed based on the concept that the nature of disruptive innovations is multidimensional. Three aspects are considered, i.e., technological features, marketplace dynamics and external environment. Ten indicators of the three categories are proposed and then connected based on the conceptual and literature analysis. Three innovations, namely, WeChat (successful), Modularised Mobile Phone (failed) and Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality (ongoing), are selected as case studies. A panel of industrial experts with PhD degree in engineering is surveyed. The survey results are calculated and analysed according to the framework and then compared against the developments of the innovations. We also check the robustness of this framework by surveying other groups of people, and the results are nearly identical to the previous findings. This study enables a systematic assessment of disruptive potential of innovations using the framework, providing insights for decisions in product launch and resource allocation.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

The Use of Transferable Permits in the Transport Sector

This report focuses on the potential use of domestic transferable permit (TPs) systems in the transport sector, in order to address the issue of mobility needs management and especially the reductions of airborne pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Firstly the context of the transport sector is briefly reviewed, the main arguments for or against the use of TPs in the sector are analysed and relevant areas are identified. Secondly four case studies of past, present or possible future permits systems are presented and evaluated. The main conclusions are: TPs applied to mobile sources are technically feasible at acceptable financial costs for protecting sensitive geographic areas. TPs schemes applied to automakers for unit vehicle emissions are also viable. Clarity, simplicity in target and pragmatism in scheme design help for their success. Regarding the broader GHG issue end-user TPs would currently involve significant administrative costs when compared with fuel tax system. Given the social resistance encountered by increase in fuel taxes in several countries, end-user TPs with free allocation may intrinsically have potential greater effectiveness and acceptance and should be thoroughly evaluated case-by-case as an alternative.Domestic transferable permits ; Emissions reduction ; Mobile sources ; Transport Sector

California methanol assessment. Volume 1: Summary report

The near term methanol industry, the competitive environment, long term methanol market, the transition period, air quality impacts of methanol, roles of the public and private sectors are considered

Contingency plans for chromium utilization. Publication NMAB-335

The United States depends entirely on foreign sources for the critical material, chromium, making it very vulnerable to supply disruptions. The effectiveness of programs such as stockpiling, conservation, and research and development for substitutes to reduce the impact of disruption of imports of chromite and ferrochromium are discussed. Alternatives for decreasing chromium consumption also are identified for chromium-containing materials in the areas of design, processing, and substitution

The implications of the rise of clean energy on lithium market dynamics

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering, Johannesburg 2018This research aims to assess the factors surrounding the emergence of markets with the greatest potential for rechargeable lithium battery adoption. The implications of the rise of electric vehicles and electrical energy storage are measured against lithium supply and market pricing. This was resolved by reviewing all available information and comparing it with the intricacies of resources, production and recycling. An analysis of price formation is also undertaken before making assumptions to enable a forecast of future market dynamics until 2030. Electric vehicles will require almost threefold the lithium produced in 2015 by the end of the period considered, with grid storage predicted to follow suit. No geological supply constraints were found, but economic scarcity is a strong possibility. Production is highly vulnerable to disruption due to concentration and the situation is exacerbated by inelastic demand. Recycling may be the most critical means of diversifying and improving supplies.XL201

Ex-Ante Prediction of Disruptive Innovation: The Case of Battery Technologies

Battery technologies represent a highly relevant field that is undergoing conversions in the context of, for instance, battery electric vehicles or stationary power storage for renewable energies. Currently, lithium-ion batteries represent the predominant technology that has, however, a considerable environmental impact that could hinder the emergence of sustainable energy systems. Driven by these conversions, several authors claim that potentially disruptive technologies could occur. The concept of disruptive innovation has been highly regarded in research and practice, but has only been successfully regarded from an ex-post perspective. However, without the possibility to establish ex-ante predictions of disruptive innovation, several authors disregard the concept of having significant relevance for practice. In response to this research gap, the present paper attempts to establish an ex-ante prediction of potential disruptive innovation. The method is based on the disruption hazard model by Sood and Tellis, testing seven hypotheses regarding a potential disruption hazard of redox-flow batteries towards lithium-ion batteries. The paper finds that redox-flow batteries could represent a disruptive technology, but this evaluation is limited to an expert evaluation. The authors discuss this finding, as the technical characteristics of redox-flow batteries support its role as a potential disruptive innovation, concluding with implications, limitations as well as suggestions for future research

The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation

This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 °C mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5 °C mitigation. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated high-efficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting experts’ perceptions and a quantitative scaling-up of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C

Top-down sustainability transitions in action: How do incumbent actors drive electric mobility diffusion in China, Japan, and California?

In explaining how socio-technical transitions occur, prevailing theories focus on bottom-up processes driven by new entrants, diverse actors and open-ended exploration in small, protected niches. Incumbent firms are frequently portrayed as hampering change, while managerial strategies using traditional public policy instruments remain understudied. Addressing this bias, we examine strategies used by networks of incumbent state and industry actors in China, Japan and California to accelerate the production and diffusion of battery-electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles. We build a comprehensive framework that systematically marries mechanisms of industrial transformation described in developmental-state literature with theories of socio-technical change from transitions scholarship. We then use a vast dataset of secondary documents and interviews to examine the principal strategies employed in each country, identifying variations over two phases of technological diffusion. Findings reveal that the incumbent actor networks in each country have collectively employed multiple but similar strategies. Yet closer inspection of specific policy instruments, such as regulations and performance-based incentives, along with ambitions to phase out vehicles with internal combustion engines, reveals differences across cases. We explain these by considering different motivations for each country’s transition and influencing socio-political conditions. Our study contributes to the enrichment of future transitions research in at least two ways. Theoretically, by integrating literature on transitions and developmental states, we deepen understanding of how incumbent state and market actors can attempt to drive socio-technical change. Empirically, our analysis provides important evidence for understanding the strategies driving top-down transitions outside northern Europe, and the conditions affecting instrument choice