Small modular nuclear reactors as a cost-effective source of clean baseload electricity

The world needs stable and sustainable, low-carbon energy sources to address the pressing challenges of climate change and energy security. Unlike non-renewable sources of electricity, many renewable sources are intermittent. This intermittency poses a challenge in ensuring a reliable and steady supply of electricity to meet the baseload demand. Nuclear energy offers the advantage of being virtually carbon-free and capable of providing a consistent power output, to meet baseload demand. Small modular nuclear reactors also known as SMRs, present potential improvements over traditional large-scale nuclear reactors, making SMRs a potentially feasible contributing solution to the security of supply issue posed by renewables. On this basis my thesis proposes the question: Can small modular nuclear reactors be a cost-effective solution to the security of supply issue in achieving carbon-neutral power grids? Through using a cost-benefit analysis framework for financial net present value estimation while exploring the relevant economic literature, I model the financial returns of small modular nuclear reactors, SMRs, and large-scale reactors. I proceed to use the financial estimates from the cost-benefit analysis framework to model the cost-effectiveness measures of SMRs and large-scale reactors, and perform cost-effectiveness analysis comparing SMRs to large-scale reactors and an all-renewable battery-based solution for benchmarking. My results imply the needed retail market electricity price for the return on the nuclear power plant to be worthwhile for investors, ranges between $147 and$213 per MWh, for SMRs. Meanwhile, that of the large-scale reactors ranges between $101 and$2806 per MWh, and combining lead-acid batteries with intermittent wind and solar under ideal conditions, might require a retail electricity price of $575 per MWh. As I estimate the historical real average retail price for electricity over the last few years to be$140, it seems that neither SMRs nor large-scale reactors are competitive in wholesale electricity markets without policy intervention. However, my results suggest SMRs require a lower retail price of electricity for the investment to be attractive, compared to large-scale reactors and the benchmarking alternative. This led to the conclusion that small modular nuclear reactors can be a cost-effective solution to the security of supply issue in achieving carbon-neutral power grids. I recommend that policy intervention should be used to incentivize investments in SMRs and other carbon-neutral solutions, as long as the financial and social costs of these interventions are lower than the benefit of achieving carbon-neutral power grids.MasteroppgaveECON391MASV-SØKPROF-SØ

Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method

Risk management is crucial when committing investments in electricity markets. Investment projects for the generation of electricity are capital-intensive, in large part irreversible and future performance is subject to high uncertainty. Fortunately, most power generation projects have strategic flexibility for handling uncertainty and for mitigating risks under unfavorable scenarios. Modern corporate finance recognizes Real Option analysis (ROA) as the correct way to value investment projects with these characteristics. Due to both, environmental concerns and escalation of fuel prices, electricity generation from renewable sources has grown dramatically worldwide over the last decade. Renewable investment projects share many of the features mentioned. As such, option valuation methods should be applied to estimate the monetary value of flexibility in renewable energy investments. This work presents an appropriate methodology for assessing the economic value of a photovoltaic power plant under uncertainties. ROA is applied to determine the value of delaying the investment decision while waiting for better market information that would reduce acquisition costs due to progress in solar technology. The flexibility of relocating the solar facility in the future upon the appearance of a more attractive site in terms of cost, network accessibility or regulatory policies is also valued. The problem of option valuation is solved through stochastic simulation combined with recursive approximate dynamic programming techniques. The methodology developed might be used by investors for more efficient decision-making and by regulatory agencies for designing adequate support policies that encourage investment in renewable energy generation.Fil: Pringles, Rolando Marcelo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Instituto de Energía Eléctrica. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Energía Eléctrica; ArgentinaFil: Olsina, Fernando Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Instituto de Energía Eléctrica. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Energía Eléctrica; ArgentinaFil: Penizzotto Bacha, Franco Victor. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Instituto de Energía Eléctrica. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Energía Eléctrica; Argentin

Energy issue in Latin America face climate challenges - A long-term analysis with TIAM-FR

Latin America presents important energy resources and a relatively low level of CO 2 emissions. Energy needs increase and are expected to increase more and more with the objective of development and of energy access. Moreover, Latin America is already impacted by climate change with, for example, first snow, inundation, etc. So to evolve his development in sustainable manner, low carbon strategy has to be developed. This paper focuses on long term analysis of energy climate issues in Latin America and particularly studies the impact of climate policy on its energy system. Solutions to tend toward a decarbonized system are analyzed and a focus is made on Biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Notably, an interesting result is the fact that, while the carbon capture and storage option is favored in case of bioplants development, appearing as a first climate-protect option, this is not the case with fossil power plants, and renewables development is preferred, even when BECCS is " excluded "

Feasibility analysis of repowering a wind park in Galicia

Treballs Finals del Màster d’Energies Renovables i Sostenibilitat Energètica, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2020-2021, Tutor: Cristian Fàbrega GallegoEl objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la viabilidad de la repotenciación de un antiguo parque eólico en Galicia, España. Con base en la evaluación de los recursos eólicos en la región y el cálculo de la distribución de Weibull correspondiente, propusimos un plan para reemplazar los aerogeneradores originales Siemens Bonus Mk-IV por aerogeneradores Vestas V117/3600 que tienen mayor eficiencia y mayor potencia. Con esta sustitución, la producción de energía anual del parque eólico ha pasado de 112.868 MWh a 223.028 MWh, lo que casi se duplica. Este plan no requiere nuevos permisos porque no aumentará la potencia del parque eólico instalada en más de un 40%, por lo que cumple con las leyes y regulaciones vigentes y. Se estableció un modelo de financiamiento del plan de repotenciación para calcular el valor actual neto, tomando como ingresos de la producción de electricidad por el nuevo tipo de turbina, su costo de capital estimado y otros parámetros relevantes. La inversión inicial requiere 59 millones de euros, los ingresos anuales por generación de energía son de aproximadamente 10,6 millones de euros. Teniendo en cuenta otros costos como las operaciones, se necesitarán alrededor de 6,45 años para recuperar la inversión requerida y luego comenzar a lucrar gradualmente. Se puede ver claramente que este plan de repotenciación es factible. Esto también indica que el desarrollo de la energía sostenible en el futuro se puede mejorar continuamente mediante la repotenciación de las centrales eléctricas caducadas en servicio

Power from shore to Utsira High : evaluation of the project’s cost efficiency and its effect on Norwegian and European emissions

This thesis evaluates the cost efficiency of a power from shore (PFS) project on Utsira High and its effect on Norwegian and European greenhouse gas emissions. The Ministry of Finance’s framework for economic analyses is applied in order to calculate and determine the project’s costs for the Norwegian economy and its national emission reductions, leading to the abatement cost. The abatement cost is compared with the expected price of EU ETS allowances in order to determine the cost efficiency of the project. Furthermore, the effect on European emissions is evaluated by applying relevant knowledge of the Nordic and European power markets and by referring to recent studies in the area. We have calculated an abatement cost of NOK 1163.37 per ton CO2 reduced. EU ETS allowances have a current price of NOK 28.66, with an estimated value of NOK 305 in 2020. We therefore conclude that the project is not a cost efficient measure for Norway to fulfill its international climate commitments. Although the analysis shows that the PFS project will reduce national emissions by 31.91 million tons CO2, we show that the project is unlikely to have any effect on European emissions. In order to reach non-binding national goals specified in the Climate Agreement of 2012, Climate Cure 2020 (2010) states that all measures with abatement cost up to NOK 1100 per ton CO2 must be implemented. As the abatement cost of the PFS project is close to this cost, the authorities may press for implementation if the national goals become binding commitments in the future

Power from shore to Utsira High : evaluation of the project’s cost efficiency and its effect on Norwegian and European emissions

This thesis evaluates the cost efficiency of a power from shore (PFS) project on Utsira High and its effect on Norwegian and European greenhouse gas emissions. The Ministry of Finance’s framework for economic analyses is applied in order to calculate and determine the project’s costs for the Norwegian economy and its national emission reductions, leading to the abatement cost. The abatement cost is compared with the expected price of EU ETS allowances in order to determine the cost efficiency of the project. Furthermore, the effect on European emissions is evaluated by applying relevant knowledge of the Nordic and European power markets and by referring to recent studies in the area. We have calculated an abatement cost of NOK 1163.37 per ton CO2 reduced. EU ETS allowances have a current price of NOK 28.66, with an estimated value of NOK 305 in 2020. We therefore conclude that the project is not a cost efficient measure for Norway to fulfill its international climate commitments. Although the analysis shows that the PFS project will reduce national emissions by 31.91 million tons CO2, we show that the project is unlikely to have any effect on European emissions. In order to reach non-binding national goals specified in the Climate Agreement of 2012, Climate Cure 2020 (2010) states that all measures with abatement cost up to NOK 1100 per ton CO2 must be implemented. As the abatement cost of the PFS project is close to this cost, the authorities may press for implementation if the national goals become binding commitments in the future

Nuclear Power as an Option in Electrical Generation Planning for Small Economy and Electricity Grid

Implementing a NPP in countries with relatively small total GDP (small economy) and usually with small electricity grid face two major problems and constrains: the ability to obtain the considerable financial resources required on reasonable terms and to connect large NPP to small electricity grid. Nuclear generation financing in developing countries involves complex issues that need to be fully understood and dealt with by all the parties involved. Besides conventional approaches for financing power generation projects in developing countries, recently some alternative approaches for mobilizing financial resources are developed. The safe and economic operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP) requires the plant to be connected to an electrical grid system that has adequate capacity for exporting the power from the NPP, and for providing a reliable electrical supply to the NPP for safe start-up, operation and normal or emergency shut-down of the plant. Connection of any large new power plant to the electrical grid system in a country may require significant modification and strengthening of the grid system, but for NPPs there may be added requirements to the structure of the grid system and the way it is controlled and maintained to ensure adequate reliability. Paper shows the comparative assesment of NPP adn differrent base load technologies as an option in electrical generation planning for small economy and electricity gri

Incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix

The present work aims to examine the strategic decision of future electricity generation mix considering, together with all other factors, the effect of the external cost associated with the available power generation technology options, not only during their operation but also during their whole life cycle. The analysis has been performed by integrating the Life Cycle Assessment concept into a linear programming model for the yearly decisions on which option should be used to minimize the electricity generation cost. The model has been applied for the case of Greece for the years 2012-2050 and has led to several interesting results. Firstly, most of the new generating capacity should be renewable (mostly biomass and wind), while natural gas is usually the only conventional fuel technology chosen. If externalities are considered, wind energy increases its share and hydro-power replaces significant amounts of biomass-generated energy. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis has been performed. One of the most important findings is that natural gas increases its contribution when externalities are increased. Summing-up, external cost has been found to be a significant percentage of the total electricity generation cost for some energy sources, therefore significantly changing the ranking order of cost-competitiveness for the energy sources examined

Water-Energy Nexus Approaches for Solar Development and Water Treatment in the Southwestern United States

Water is crucial for energy production and conversion, and energy is crucial for various water related processes including water conveyance, treatment and distribution. Sustainability of water and energy are inextricably linked with each other. Over-utilization/ degradation of these resources may occur due to limited availability of water under the changing climate scenario, growing population, and increasing pollution due to the burning of fossil fuels. The goal of the current research was to study the water-energy nexus of the Southwestern U.S. and develop approaches for solar development and treatment of drinking water. To achieve the overall objective, the work was divided into two main research tasks. Research task 1 addressed the water demands and availability issues for utility-scale solar development in six southwestern states to meet the target goals of their renewable portfolio standards (RPS) between the years of 2015-2030. Solar energy-water nexus was analyzed for the southwestern states of Arizona, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah. Estimates were gathered for water withdrawal and consumption (related to plant construction, operations, and dismantling) and land use (direct and total) for solar technologies of concentrated solar power and solar photovoltaics (PV), and harmonized through review and screening of relevant literature. Next, the estimates were incorporated into a system dynamics model to analyze water availability and usage, land availability and usage, and associated reductions in carbon emissions for utility-scale solar development in the nineteen solar energy zones (SEZs) of six southwestern states based upon the RPS during 2015-2030. Results showed that solar PV was the most appropriate technology for water-limited regions. Sufficient land was available within the 19 SEZs to meet the RPS requirements. Available water was adequate to meet RPS solar carve-out water requirements for Nevada and New Mexico. Further, solar development led to tremendous reduction in carbon emissions in the region. Contributions of this study include a greater understanding of solar energy-water nexus, especially on a local scale, which is crucial for successful implementation of energy policies, by quantifying the effects of solar land and water demands on the resources of southwestern region. The generated model may be used as a screening tool for a crude assessment of future energy planning, solar project applications, and permit approvals. For future work, the generated model can be modified to analyze the performances of renewables in addition to solar. Research task 2 involved the application of water-energy nexus approach for treatment of drinking water, which is an energy-intensive process and essential for safeguarding public health. Environmental impacts of the nexus are carbon emissions, which were reduced by using distributed solar to fulfill the energy requirements of three drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs), located in southwestern United States. The three plants differed by capacity (10 MGD, 90 MGD, 300 MGD), raw water source (groundwater, river, lake), and unit processes involved for treatment of raw water (in-line filtration, conventional filtration, direct filtration). Energy consumption was determined for various energy driving units. This, along with the existing acreage of the plant and economic feasibility; the DWTP was sized for solar photovoltaics. System Advisor Model was used for the performance and economic analysis of the solar system. Associated reduction in carbon emissions was also estimated. Energy intensity was determined as 153.7, 165.4, and 508.1 Wh m-3 for the small, medium and large DWTP, respectively. Pumping operation was determined to be the largest consumer of electricity for all three plants and utilized about 98%, 95%, and 90% of the total energy consumption for the 10 MGD, 90 MGD and 300 MGD plant, respectively. The development of solar PV for the three treatment plants was found to be economically feasible with positive NPV, with and without battery-storage systems. However, standalone solar PV development was not profitable for the 300 MGD DWTP for offsetting the total energy consumption. Further, the economic assessment was sensitive to changes in governmental incentives and financial parameters. Existing landholdings of the plants were sufficient for solar development. Moreover, change in geographic location from the southwest to east coast US, identified governmental incentives to affect the economic feasibility of PV systems. Contributions of this study include a successful application of the water-energy nexus approach for sustainable treatment of drinking water, by offsetting the fossil-fuel based energy consumption of three existing DWTPs by means of solar development. The design equations and results for the energy consumption can be applied to other plants utilizing similar processes. With the aim of incorporating sustainability in DWTPs in the southwestern U.S., the study provides a roadmap for using solar PV for DWTPs, leading to reduction in carbon emissions, energy costs and achieving energy independence