Disintegration and Bayesian Inversion via String Diagrams

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.Comment: Accepted for publication in Mathematical Structures in Computer Scienc

Causal inference via string diagram surgery

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endo-functor which performs 'string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on two well-known toy examples: one where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause and where we show that this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature; the other one is an illustration of counterfactual reasoning where the same interventional techniques are used, but now in a 'twinned' set-up, with two version of the world - one factual and one counterfactual - joined together via exogenous variables that capture the uncertainties at hand

A categorical semantics for causal structure

We present a categorical construction for modelling causal structures within a general class of process theories that include the theory of classical probabilistic processes as well as quantum theory. Unlike prior constructions within categorical quantum mechanics, the objects of this theory encode fine-grained causal relationships between subsystems and give a new method for expressing and deriving consequences for a broad class of causal structures. We show that this framework enables one to define families of processes which are consistent with arbitrary acyclic causal orderings. In particular, one can define one-way signalling (a.k.a. semi-causal) processes, non-signalling processes, and quantum $n$-combs. Furthermore, our framework is general enough to accommodate recently-proposed generalisations of classical and quantum theory where processes only need to have a fixed causal ordering locally, but globally allow indefinite causal ordering. To illustrate this point, we show that certain processes of this kind, such as the quantum switch, the process matrices of Oreshkov, Costa, and Brukner, and a classical three-party example due to Baumeler, Feix, and Wolf are all instances of a certain family of processes we refer to as $\textrm{SOC}_n$ in the appropriate category of higher-order causal processes. After defining these families of causal structures within our framework, we give derivations of their operational behaviour using simple, diagrammatic axioms.Comment: Extended version of a LICS 2017 paper with the same titl

The Compositional Structure of Bayesian Inference

Bayes\u27 rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference

Active Inference in String Diagrams: A Categorical Account of Predictive Processing and Free Energy

We present a categorical formulation of the cognitive frameworks of Predictive Processing and Active Inference, expressed in terms of string diagrams interpreted in a monoidal category with copying and discarding. This includes diagrammatic accounts of generative models, Bayesian updating, perception, planning, active inference, and free energy. In particular we present a diagrammatic derivation of the formula for active inference via free energy minimisation, and establish a compositionality property for free energy, allowing free energy to be applied at all levels of an agent's generative model. Aside from aiming to provide a helpful graphical language for those familiar with active inference, we conversely hope that this article may provide a concise formulation and introduction to the framework