Dynamic traffic assignment: model classifications and recent advances in travel choice principles

Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) has been studied for more than four decades and numerous reviews of this research area have been conducted. This review focuses on the travel choice principle and the classification of DTA models, and is supplementary to the existing reviews. The implications of the travel choice principle for the existence and uniqueness of DTA solutions are discussed, and the interrelation between the travel choice principle and the traffic flow component is explained using the nonlinear complementarity problem, the variational inequality problem, the mathematical programming problem, and the fixed point problem formulations. This paper also points out that all of the reviewed travel choice principles are extended from those used in static traffic assignment. There are also many classifications of DTA models, in which each classification addresses one aspect of DTA modeling. Finally, some future research directions are identified.postprin

Convexity and Robustness of Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Freeway Network Control

We study the use of the System Optimum (SO) Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) problem to design optimal traffic flow controls for freeway networks as modeled by the Cell Transmission Model, using variable speed limit, ramp metering, and routing. We consider two optimal control problems: the DTA problem, where turning ratios are part of the control inputs, and the Freeway Network Control (FNC), where turning ratios are instead assigned exogenous parameters. It is known that relaxation of the supply and demand constraints in the cell-based formulations of the DTA problem results in a linear program. However, solutions to the relaxed problem can be infeasible with respect to traffic dynamics. Previous work has shown that such solutions can be made feasible by proper choice of ramp metering and variable speed limit control for specific traffic networks. We extend this procedure to arbitrary networks and provide insight into the structure and robustness of the proposed optimal controllers. For a network consisting only of ordinary, merge, and diverge junctions, where the cells have linear demand functions and affine supply functions with identical slopes, and the cost is the total traffic volume, we show, using the maximum principle, that variable speed limits are not needed in order to achieve optimality in the FNC problem, and ramp metering is sufficient. We also prove bounds on perturbation of the controlled system trajectory in terms of perturbations in initial traffic volume and exogenous inflows. These bounds, which leverage monotonicity properties of the controlled trajectory, are shown to be in close agreement with numerical simulation results

Discrete Time Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models with Lane Reversals for Evacuation Planning

In an event of a natural or man-made disaster, an evacuation is likely to be called for to move residents away from potentially hazardous areas. Road congestion and traffic stalling is a common occurrence as residents evacuate towns and cities for safe refuges. Lane reversal, or contra-flow, is a remedy to increase outbound flow capacities from disaster areas which in turn will reduce evacuation time of evacuees during emergency situations. This thesis presents a discrete-time traffic assignment system with lane reversals which incorporates multiple sources and multiple destinations to predict optimal traffic flow at various times throughout the entire planning horizon. With the realization of lane reversals, naturally the threat of potential head-on collisions emerges. To avoid the occurrence of such situations, a collision prevention constraint is introduced to limit directional flow on lanes based on departure time.;This model belongs to the class of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) problems. Initially the model was formulated as a discrete-time system optimum dynamic traffic assignment (DTA-SO) problem, which is a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem. Through various proven theorems, a linearized upper bound was derived that is able to approximate the original problem with very high precision. The result is an upper bound mixed integer linear programming problem (DTA-UB). The discrete-time DTA model is suitable for evacuation planning because the model is able to take care of dynamic demands, and temporal ow assignment. Also, simultaneous route and departure is assumed and an appropriate travel time function is used to approximate the minimum and maximum travel time on an arc.;This thesis discusses the different attributes that relates to Dynamic Traffic Assignment. DTA model properties and formulation methodology are also expounded upon. A model analysis that breaks down each output into individual entities is provided to further understand the computational results of small networks. A no reversal DTA-UB model (NRDTA-UB) is formulated and its computational results are compared to DTA-UB. Through the extensive computational results, DTA-UB is proven to obtain much better results than NRDTA-UB despite having longer solving time. This is a step toward realizing the supremacy of having lane reversals in a real-life evacuation scenario

Dynamic route choice in hurricane evacuation

In this research a framework is developed for modeling route choice in hurricane evacuation. Two behavioral hypotheses are evaluated which together with the route choice model, constitute the contributions of the research. The first hypothesis states that beside congestion, other variables such as familiarity with the route, availability of fuel and shelter, facility class, and length of route have an effect on an evacuees\u27 route choice. The second hypothesis states that as time passes and storm conditions change, the impact each variable has on route choice changes. The logit structure was used for modeling the choice process and stated choice data previously collected from the New Orleans area on hypothetical storms was used to calibrate the model. The study found that accessibility of a route, familiarity with a route, facility class, length of a route, and availability of services (gas stations and hotels) had an effect on evacuation route choice. The magnitude of the coefficients of perceived service, accessibility, and distance differed among those evacuating in the first half of the evacuation period versus those that evacuated in the second half but coefficients of facility class were not significantly different between two time intervals. Observed traffic count data from hurricane Katrina evacuation was used to validate the model. Comparison of traffic volumes predicted by the model with actual traffic volumes from hurricane Katrina shows error percentages of 17.5, 0.01, and 28 percent of error for volumes on I-10, I-55, and US-61 respectively

Road network maintenance and repair considering day-to-day traffic dynamics and transient congestion

Road maintenance and repair (M&R) are essential for keeping the performance of traffic infrastructure at a satisfactory level, and extending their lifetime to the fullest extent possible. For road networks, effective M&R plans should not be constructed in a myopic or ad-hoc fashion regardless of the subsequent benefits and costs associated with those projects considered. A hallmark of road M&R studies is the use of user equilibrium (UE) models to predict network traffic for a given set of road conditions with or without M&R. However, UE approaches ignore the traffic disequilibrium states and transient congestion as a result of M&R derived disruptions to network traffic on a day-to-day (DTD) time scale, which could produce additional substantial travel costs. As shown in the numerical studies on a M&R plan of the Sioux Falls network, the additional maintenance derived travel cost is about 4 billion, which is far exceed the actual M&R construction cost of 0.2 billion. Therefore, it is necessary to recognise the substantial social costs induced by maintenance-derived disruptions in the form of transient congestion when planning M&R. This realistic and pressing issue is not properly addressed by the road M&R planning problems with traffic equilibrium constraints. This thesis proposes a dual-time-scale road network M&R model aiming to simultaneously capture the long-term effects of M&R activities under traffic equilibria, and the maintenance-derived transient congestion using day-to-day (DTD) traffic evolutionary dynamics. The notion of ‘day’ is arbitrarily defined (e.g. weeks or months). The proposed M&R model consists of three sub-models: (1) a within-day dynamic network loading (DNL) model; (2) a day-to-day dynamic traffic assignment (DTD DTA) model; and (3) a day-to-day road quality model. The within-day traffic dynamics is captured by the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) fluid dynamic network loading model. The day-to-day phase of the traffic dynamics specify travellers’ route and departure time choices in a stochastic manner based on a sequential mixed multinomial or nested Logit model. Travel information sharing behaviour is further integrated into this macroscopic doubly dynamic (both within-day and day-to-day dynamic) traffic assignment (DDTA) model to account for the impact of incomplete information on travel experiences. A deterministic day-to-day road quality model based on an exponential form of traffic flow is employed to govern the road deterioration process, where a quarter-car index (QI) is applied. All these dynamics are incorporated in a holistic dual-time-scale M&R model, which captures realistic phenomena associated with short-term and long-term effects of M&R, including physical queuing and spillback, road capacity reduction, temporal-spatial shift of congestion due to on-going M&R activities, and the tendency to converge to an equilibrium after M&R actions. Following the dual-time-scale road network M&R model, a bi-level road M&R optimisation model is proposed, where the aforementioned three sub-models are incorporated into the lower-level problem, while the upper-level is to minimise M&R expenditure and network travel costs while maintaining a satisfactory level of road quality. The M&R planning horizon is long yet finite (e.g. years or decades). A ‘quality-usage’ feedback mechanism is investigated in the proposed bi-level M&R model, namely, (1) the DTD road quality evolution as a result of DTD traffic loads and the M&R effectiveness; and (2) the evolution of DTD traffic in response to both DTD road deterioration and the improved road quality after M&R activities. The effectiveness of developed M&R optimisation model is demonstrated through case studies on the Sioux Falls network. A metaheuristic Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach is employed to solve the M&R problems given its highly nonlinear, nonconvex and non-differentiable nature. Explicit travellers’ choice behaviour dynamics and complex traffic phenomena such as network paradoxes arising from M&R activities are illustrated. Through a comparison with the results under the dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) method, the proposed DTD method achieves significant reduction in network travel cost of $ 25 million, approximately 20% of the total cost. This points to the benefit of using the DTD dynamics for capturing network’s responses to M&R in a more realistic way. The M&R model proposed in this thesis could provide valuable managerial insights for road M&R planning agencies.Open Acces

Dynamic Traffic Models in Transportation Science

Traffic assignment models are crucial for traffic planners to be able to predict traffic distributions, especially, in light of possible changes of the infrastructure, e.g., road constructions, traffic light controls, etc. The starting point of the seminar was the observation that there is a trend in the transportation community (science as well as industry) to base such predictions on complex computer-based simulations that are capable of resolving many elements of a real transportation system. On the other hand, within the past few years, the theory of dynamic traffic assignments in terms of equilibrium existence and equilibrium computation has not matured to the point matching the model complexity inherent in simulations. In view of the above, this interdisciplinary seminar brought together leading scientists in the areas traffic simulations, algorithmic game theory and dynamic traffic assignment as well as people from industry with strong scientific background who identified possible ways to bridge the described gap

An intersection-movement-based stochastic dynamic user optimal route choice model for assessing network performance

Different from traditional methods, this paper formulates the logit-based stochastic dynamic user optimal (SDUO) route choice problem as a fixed point (FP) problem in terms of intersection movement choice probabilities, which contain travelers’ route information so that the realistic effects of physical queues can be captured in the formulation when a physical-queue traffic flow model is adopted, and that route enumeration and column generation heuristics can be avoided in the solution procedure when efficient path sets are used. The choice probability can be either destination specific or origin–destination specific, resulting into two formulations. To capture the effect of physical queues in these FP formulations, the link transmission model is modified for the network loading and travel time determination. The self-regulated averaging method (SRAM) was adopted to solve the FP formulations. Numerical examples were developed to illustrate the properties of the problem and the effectiveness of the solution method. The proposed models were further used to evaluate the effect of information quality and road network improvement on the network performance in terms of total system travel time (TSTT) and the cost of total vehicle emissions (CTVE). Numerical results show that providing better information quality, enhancing link outflow capacity, or constructing a new road can lead to poor network performance.postprin

Forecast based traffic signal coordination using congestion modelling and real-time data

This dissertation focusses on the implementation of a Real-Time Simulation-Based Signal Coordination module for arterial traffic, as proof of concept for the potential of integrating a new generation of advanced heuristic optimisation tools into Real-Time Traffic Management Systems. The endeavour represents an attempt to address a number of shortcomings observed in most currently marketed on-line signal setting solutions and provide better adaptive signal timings. It is unprecedented in its use of a Genetic Algorithm coupled with Continuous Dynamic Traffic Assignment as solution evaluation method, only made possible by the recently presented parallelisation strategies for the underlying algorithms. Within a fully functional traffic modelling and management framework, the optimiser is developed independently, leaving ample space for future adaptations and extensions, while relying on the best available technology to provide it fast and realistic solution evaluation based on reliable real-time supply and demand data. The optimiser can in fact operate on high quality network models that are well calibrated and always up-to-date with real-world road conditions; rely on robust, multi-source network wide traffic data, rather than being attached to single detectors; manage area coordination using an external simulation engine, rather than a na¨ıve flow propagation model that overlooks crucial traffic dynamics; and even incorporate real-time traffic forecast to account for transient phenomena in the near future to act as a feedback controller. Results clearly confirm the efficacy of the proposed method, by which it is possible to obtain relevant and consistent corridor performance improvements with respect to widely known arterial bandwidth maximisation techniques under a range of different traffic conditions. The computational efforts involved are already manageable for realistic real-world applications, and future extensions of the presented approach to more complex problems seem within reach thanks to the load distribution strategies already envisioned and prepared for in the context of this work