DPVis: Visual Analytics with Hidden Markov Models for Disease Progression Pathways

Clinical researchers use disease progression models to understand patient status and characterize progression patterns from longitudinal health records. One approach for disease progression modeling is to describe patient status using a small number of states that represent distinctive distributions over a set of observed measures. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and its variants are a class of models that both discover these states and make inferences of health states for patients. Despite the advantages of using the algorithms for discovering interesting patterns, it still remains challenging for medical experts to interpret model outputs, understand complex modeling parameters, and clinically make sense of the patterns. To tackle these problems, we conducted a design study with clinical scientists, statisticians, and visualization experts, with the goal to investigate disease progression pathways of chronic diseases, namely type 1 diabetes (T1D), Huntington's disease, Parkinson's disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). As a result, we introduce DPVis which seamlessly integrates model parameters and outcomes of HMMs into interpretable and interactive visualizations. In this study, we demonstrate that DPVis is successful in evaluating disease progression models, visually summarizing disease states, interactively exploring disease progression patterns, and building, analyzing, and comparing clinically relevant patient subgroups.Comment: to appear at IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphic

Approximate Data Mining Techniques on Clinical Data

The past two decades have witnessed an explosion in the number of medical and healthcare datasets available to researchers and healthcare professionals. Data collection efforts are highly required, and this prompts the development of appropriate data mining techniques and tools that can automatically extract relevant information from data. Consequently, they provide insights into various clinical behaviors or processes captured by the data. Since these tools should support decision-making activities of medical experts, all the extracted information must be represented in a human-friendly way, that is, in a concise and easy-to-understand form. To this purpose, here we propose a new framework that collects different new mining techniques and tools proposed. These techniques mainly focus on two aspects: the temporal one and the predictive one. All of these techniques were then applied to clinical data and, in particular, ICU data from MIMIC III database. It showed the flexibility of the framework, which is able to retrieve different outcomes from the overall dataset. The first two techniques rely on the concept of Approximate Temporal Functional Dependencies (ATFDs). ATFDs have been proposed, with their suitable treatment of temporal information, as a methodological tool for mining clinical data. An example of the knowledge derivable through dependencies may be "within 15 days, patients with the same diagnosis and the same therapy usually receive the same daily amount of drug". However, current ATFD models are not analyzing the temporal evolution of the data, such as "For most patients with the same diagnosis, the same drug is prescribed after the same symptom". To this extent, we propose a new kind of ATFD called Approximate Pure Temporally Evolving Functional Dependencies (APEFDs). Another limitation of such kind of dependencies is that they cannot deal with quantitative data when some tolerance can be allowed for numerical values. In particular, this limitation arises in clinical data warehouses, where analysis and mining have to consider one or more measures related to quantitative data (such as lab test results and vital signs), concerning multiple dimensional (alphanumeric) attributes (such as patient, hospital, physician, diagnosis) and some time dimensions (such as the day since hospitalization and the calendar date). According to this scenario, we introduce a new kind of ATFD, named Multi-Approximate Temporal Functional Dependency (MATFD), which considers dependencies between dimensions and quantitative measures from temporal clinical data. These new dependencies may provide new knowledge as "within 15 days, patients with the same diagnosis and the same therapy receive a daily amount of drug within a fixed range". The other techniques are based on pattern mining, which has also been proposed as a methodological tool for mining clinical data. However, many methods proposed so far focus on mining of temporal rules which describe relationships between data sequences or instantaneous events, without considering the presence of more complex temporal patterns into the dataset. These patterns, such as trends of a particular vital sign, are often very relevant for clinicians. Moreover, it is really interesting to discover if some sort of event, such as a drug administration, is capable of changing these trends and how. To this extent, we propose a new kind of temporal patterns, called Trend-Event Patterns (TEPs), that focuses on events and their influence on trends that can be retrieved from some measures, such as vital signs. With TEPs we can express concepts such as "The administration of paracetamol on a patient with an increasing temperature leads to a decreasing trend in temperature after such administration occurs". We also decided to analyze another interesting pattern mining technique that includes prediction. This technique discovers a compact set of patterns that aim to describe the condition (or class) of interest. Our framework relies on a classification model that considers and combines various predictive pattern candidates and selects only those that are important to improve the overall class prediction performance. We show that our classification approach achieves a significant reduction in the number of extracted patterns, compared to the state-of-the-art methods based on minimum predictive pattern mining approach, while preserving the overall classification accuracy of the model. For each technique described above, we developed a tool to retrieve its kind of rule. All the results are obtained by pre-processing and mining clinical data and, as mentioned before, in particular ICU data from MIMIC III database

A Framework for Discovery and Diagnosis of Behavioral Transitions in Event-streams

Date stream mining techniques can be used in tracking user behaviors as they attempt to achieve their goals. Quality metrics over stream-mined models identify potential changes in user goal attainment. When the quality of some data mined models varies significantly from nearby models—as defined by quality metrics—then the user’s behavior is automatically flagged as a potentially significant behavioral change. Decision tree, sequence pattern and Hidden Markov modeling being used in this study. These three types of modeling can expose different aspect of user’s behavior. In case of decision tree modeling, the specific changes in user behavior can automatically characterized by differencing the data-mined decision-tree models. The sequence pattern modeling can shed light on how the user changes his sequence of actions and Hidden Markov modeling can identifies the learning transition points. This research describes how model-quality monitoring and these three types of modeling as a generic framework can aid recognition and diagnoses of behavioral changes in a case study of cognitive rehabilitation via emailing. The date stream mining techniques mentioned are used to monitor patient goals as part of a clinical plan to aid cognitive rehabilitation. In this context, real time data mining aids clinicians in tracking user behaviors as they attempt to achieve their goals. This generic framework can be widely applicable to other real-time data-intensive analysis problems. In order to illustrate this fact, the similar Hidden Markov modeling is being used for analyzing the transactional behavior of a telecommunication company for fraud detection. Fraud similarly can be considered as a potentially significant transaction behavioral change

Journalistic practices of science popularization in the context of users’ agenda: A case study of „New Scientist”

The article includes a discussion of two models which describe contemporary communication processes in journalism: agenda-setting and news value, indicating the need to expand their research tools to include qualitative methods, and merging the analyses of the reception and the message. It also includes indications as to the possibility, or even the social relevance, of the methods for applying those research perspectives to analysing journalism popularising science. Later, I present the results of an analysis of the content of a sample of 500 most read popular science texts available on the New Scientist website. I demonstrate which thematic areas were valued by the readers, and what values are most commonly applied. Further, upon applying a filter in the form of surveys regarding reader preferences, I discuss the main linguistic devices utilised for controlling readers’ attention. The shaping of the hierarchy of importance of items of news is the result of a dynamic interaction between (1) the thematic priorities and discursive strategies of imposing elite representations of science within media agenda, and (2) the means of negotiating order and values of specific content, which are correlated with readers’ preferences, both in terms of the content and the form of providing popular scientific information

Explainable temporal data mining techniques to support the prediction task in Medicine

In the last decades, the increasing amount of data available in all fields raises the necessity to discover new knowledge and explain the hidden information found. On one hand, the rapid increase of interest in, and use of, artificial intelligence (AI) in computer applications has raised a parallel concern about its ability (or lack thereof) to provide understandable, or explainable, results to users. In the biomedical informatics and computer science communities, there is considerable discussion about the `` un-explainable" nature of artificial intelligence, where often algorithms and systems leave users, and even developers, in the dark with respect to how results were obtained. Especially in the biomedical context, the necessity to explain an artificial intelligence system result is legitimate of the importance of patient safety. On the other hand, current database systems enable us to store huge quantities of data. Their analysis through data mining techniques provides the possibility to extract relevant knowledge and useful hidden information. Relationships and patterns within these data could provide new medical knowledge. The analysis of such healthcare/medical data collections could greatly help to observe the health conditions of the population and extract useful information that can be exploited in the assessment of healthcare/medical processes. Particularly, the prediction of medical events is essential for preventing disease, understanding disease mechanisms, and increasing patient quality of care. In this context, an important aspect is to verify whether the database content supports the capability of predicting future events. In this thesis, we start addressing the problem of explainability, discussing some of the most significant challenges need to be addressed with scientific and engineering rigor in a variety of biomedical domains. We analyze the ``temporal component" of explainability, focusing on detailing different perspectives such as: the use of temporal data, the temporal task, the temporal reasoning, and the dynamics of explainability in respect to the user perspective and to knowledge. Starting from this panorama, we focus our attention on two different temporal data mining techniques. The first one, based on trend abstractions, starting from the concept of Trend-Event Pattern and moving through the concept of prediction, we propose a new kind of predictive temporal patterns, namely Predictive Trend-Event Patterns (PTE-Ps). The framework aims to combine complex temporal features to extract a compact and non-redundant predictive set of patterns composed by such temporal features. The second one, based on functional dependencies, we propose a methodology for deriving a new kind of approximate temporal functional dependencies, called Approximate Predictive Functional Dependencies (APFDs), based on a three-window framework. We then discuss the concept of approximation, the data complexity of deriving an APFD, the introduction of two new error measures, and finally the quality of APFDs in terms of coverage and reliability. Exploiting these methodologies, we analyze intensive care unit data from the MIMIC dataset