Analysis and Forecasting of Trending Topics in Online Media Streams

Among the vast information available on the web, social media streams capture what people currently pay attention to and how they feel about certain topics. Awareness of such trending topics plays a crucial role in multimedia systems such as trend aware recommendation and automatic vocabulary selection for video concept detection systems. Correctly utilizing trending topics requires a better understanding of their various characteristics in different social media streams. To this end, we present the first comprehensive study across three major online and social media streams, Twitter, Google, and Wikipedia, covering thousands of trending topics during an observation period of an entire year. Our results indicate that depending on one's requirements one does not necessarily have to turn to Twitter for information about current events and that some media streams strongly emphasize content of specific categories. As our second key contribution, we further present a novel approach for the challenging task of forecasting the life cycle of trending topics in the very moment they emerge. Our fully automated approach is based on a nearest neighbor forecasting technique exploiting our assumption that semantically similar topics exhibit similar behavior. We demonstrate on a large-scale dataset of Wikipedia page view statistics that forecasts by the proposed approach are about 9-48k views closer to the actual viewing statistics compared to baseline methods and achieve a mean average percentage error of 45-19% for time periods of up to 14 days.Comment: ACM Multimedia 201

Topicality and Social Impact: Diverse Messages but Focused Messengers

Are users who comment on a variety of matters more likely to achieve high influence than those who delve into one focused field? Do general Twitter hashtags, such as #lol, tend to be more popular than novel ones, such as #instantlyinlove? Questions like these demand a way to detect topics hidden behind messages associated with an individual or a hashtag, and a gauge of similarity among these topics. Here we develop such an approach to identify clusters of similar hashtags by detecting communities in the hashtag co-occurrence network. Then the topical diversity of a user's interests is quantified by the entropy of her hashtags across different topic clusters. A similar measure is applied to hashtags, based on co-occurring tags. We find that high topical diversity of early adopters or co-occurring tags implies high future popularity of hashtags. In contrast, low diversity helps an individual accumulate social influence. In short, diverse messages and focused messengers are more likely to gain impact.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, 6 table

Viewpoint Discovery and Understanding in Social Networks

The Web has evolved to a dominant platform where everyone has the opportunity to express their opinions, to interact with other users, and to debate on emerging events happening around the world. On the one hand, this has enabled the presence of different viewpoints and opinions about a - usually controversial - topic (like Brexit), but at the same time, it has led to phenomena like media bias, echo chambers and filter bubbles, where users are exposed to only one point of view on the same topic. Therefore, there is the need for methods that are able to detect and explain the different viewpoints. In this paper, we propose a graph partitioning method that exploits social interactions to enable the discovery of different communities (representing different viewpoints) discussing about a controversial topic in a social network like Twitter. To explain the discovered viewpoints, we describe a method, called Iterative Rank Difference (IRD), which allows detecting descriptive terms that characterize the different viewpoints as well as understanding how a specific term is related to a viewpoint (by detecting other related descriptive terms). The results of an experimental evaluation showed that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on viewpoint discovery, while a qualitative analysis of the proposed IRD method on three different controversial topics showed that IRD provides comprehensive and deep representations of the different viewpoints

A Local-Global LDA Model for Discovering Geographical Topics from Social Media

Micro-blogging services can track users' geo-locations when users check-in their places or use geo-tagging which implicitly reveals locations. This "geo tracking" can help to find topics triggered by some events in certain regions. However, discovering such topics is very challenging because of the large amount of noisy messages (e.g. daily conversations). This paper proposes a method to model geographical topics, which can filter out irrelevant words by different weights in the local and global contexts. Our method is based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model but each word is generated from either a local or a global topic distribution by its generation probabilities. We evaluated our model with data collected from Weibo, which is currently the most popular micro-blogging service for Chinese. The evaluation results demonstrate that our method outperforms other baseline methods in several metrics such as model perplexity, two kinds of entropies and KL-divergence of discovered topics