A goodness of fit measure related to r² for model performance assessment

Checking the predictive worth of an environmental model inevitably includes a goodness of fit metric to quantify the degree of matching to recorded data, thereby giving a measure of model performance. Considerable analysis and discussion have taken place over fit indices in hydrology, but a neglected aspect is the degree of communicability to other disciplines. It is suggested that a fit index is best communicated to colleagues via reference to models giving unbiased predictions, because unbiased environmental models are a desirable goal across disciplines. That is, broad recognition of a fit index is aided if it simplifies in the unbiased case to a familiar and logical expression. This does not hold for the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency E which reduces to the somewhat awkward unbiased expression E = 2 – 1/r², where r² is the coefficient of determination. A new goodness of fit index V is proposed for model validation as V =  r²/(2-E), which simplifies to the easily communicated V = r4 in the unbiased case. The index is defined over the range 0 ≤ V ≤ 1, and it happens that V < E for larger values of E. Some synthetic and recorded data sets are used to illustrate characteristics of V in comparison to

Sun as a Star: Science Learning Activities for Afterschool

This educator's guide features eight activities in which younger students use brainstorming, observations, and experiments to learn about the Sun. They will begin by learning that light is our means of studying the Sun, use spectroscopes to separate white light into its component colors, and learn that there are other forms of light outside the visible spectrum. Then the students will conduct experiments to learn how light travels and set up an outdoor investigation to find out how the size and position of shadows relate to the position of the Sun in the sky. In the final activities, they will construct a model to simulate the motion of the Sun relative to the Earth, view satellite images taken by the SOHO satellite, and extend their knowledge of the Sun as a star by observing images of stars and recording their ideas on whether all stars are like the Sun. Educational levels: Primary elementary, Intermediate elementary, Middle school

A Roadmap for Building Data Science Capacity for Health Discovery and Innovation in Africa

Technological advances now make it possible to generate diverse, complex and varying sizes of data in a wide range of applications from business to engineering to medicine. In the health sciences, in particular, data are being produced at an unprecedented rate across the full spectrum of scientific inquiry spanning basic biology, clinical medicine, public health and health care systems. Leveraging these data can accelerate scientific advances, health discovery and innovations. However, data are just the raw material required to generate new knowledge, not knowledge on its own, as a pile of bricks would not be mistaken for a building. In order to solve complex scientific problems, appropriate methods, tools and technologies must be integrated with domain knowledge expertise to generate and analyze big data. This integrated interdisciplinary approach is what has become to be widely known as data science. Although the discipline of data science has been rapidly evolving over the past couple of decades in resource-rich countries, the situation is bleak in resource-limited settings such as most countries in Africa primarily due to lack of well-trained data scientists. In this paper, we highlight a roadmap for building capacity in health data science in Africa to help spur health discovery and innovation, and propose a sustainable potential solution consisting of three key activities: a graduate-level training, faculty development, and stakeholder engagement. We also outline potential challenges and mitigating strategies

A New Cosmology of Risks and Crises: Time for a Radical Shift in Paradigm and Practice

Crises in the 21st century differ—structurally— from those we had to deal with in the last century. Those were traditionally defined and handled as a combination of “threat, urgency and uncertainty”. Today, they are better described in terms of a destruction of vital references and a dynamic of systemic implosions. If crises were a type of severe, dynamic accident , they are becoming the essential mode of life of our hypercomplex systems. These transboundary crises mark a watershed between mindsets and tools of the past, and the new strategic landscape which we are now in. The intellectual and governance challenges are extreme. But looking backwards is not an option. It is vital to forge new routes into Terrae Incognitae. The goal of this article is to help build a) a renewed understanding of the emerging challenges we face; b) a better strategic response to these systemic dislocations which are now the name of the game.

Evidence and future potential of mobile phone data for disease disaster management

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Global health threats such as the recent Ebola and Zika virus outbreaks require rapid and robust responses to prevent, reduce and recover from disease dispersion. As part of broader big data and digital humanitarianism discourses, there is an emerging interest in data produced through mobile phone communications for enhancing the data environment in such circumstances. This paper assembles user perspectives and critically examines existing evidence and future potential of mobile phone data derived from call detail records (CDRs) and two-way short message service (SMS) platforms, for managing and responding to humanitarian disasters caused by communicable disease outbreaks. We undertake a scoping review of relevant literature and in-depth interviews with key informants to ascertain the: (i) information that can be gathered from CDRs or SMS data; (ii) phase(s) in the disease disaster management cycle when mobile data may be useful; (iii) value added over conventional approaches to data collection and transfer; (iv) barriers and enablers to use of mobile data in disaster contexts; and (v) the social and ethical challenges. Based on this evidence we develop a typology of mobile phone data sources, types, and end-uses, and a decision-tree for mobile data use, designed to enable effective use of mobile data for disease disaster management. We show that mobile data holds great potential for improving the quality, quantity and timing of selected information required for disaster management, but that testing and evaluation of the benefits, constraints and limitations of mobile data use in a wider range of mobile-user and disaster contexts is needed to fully understand its utility, validity, and limitations.A portion of this research was funded as part of the Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) programme, by the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)

A Comparative Study Of The Health Facilities Of Jackson High School And Four Adjacent Schools In Smith County

Tie recent war, to be sure, Pas lad a potent part in causing stress and strain to young and old of this generation from anxiety, fear, grief, and bereavement to the uprooting of thousands of youth for the nation1s service then trying to relocate them and their families in the post war days. Adjustments from surface to air travel, with possible weekends in Europe, tell how man has mastered time and space in this world of ours. Now the great unsolved problem before him is mastering himself. His physical prowess, greatly magnified through machines which his own brain has invented, has far exceeded his spiritual strength, also far exceeded his knowledge of his own health and welfare. So those of us who wish to keep pace and contribute to the world\u27s work must of necessity be strong enough in mind and body to be able to equate ourselves in balanced living in this magic modern world. Etheridge says, balance living gives health to body, mind, and heart. This involves more than just wishful thinking on our part. It calls for sober planning of our lives with definite health goals, not only in our minds but in our daily practices. We must seek to live larger lives than just routine. Abundant living with work bring? radiance and service into life. Thus it is found that health is the best working tool for operation on the highest level of which we are capable, the is, being useful contributing members of a society which demands service to our 2 community and to our nation and to the world

Evolutionary Subject Tagging in the Humanities; Supporting Discovery and Examination in Digital Cultural Landscapes

In this paper, the authors attempt to identify problematic issues for subject tagging in the humanities, particularly those associated with information objects in digital formats. In the third major section, the authors identify a number of assumptions that lie behind the current practice of subject classification that we think should be challenged. We move then to propose features of classification systems that could increase their effectiveness. These emerged as recurrent themes in many of the conversations with scholars, consultants, and colleagues. Finally, we suggest next steps that we believe will help scholars and librarians develop better subject classification systems to support research in the humanities.NEH Office of Digital Humanities: Digital Humanities Start-Up Grant (HD-51166-10

Food Environments: What is the Role of Demographics in Fijians\u27 Decision Making Related to Food Choice and Overall Nutrition Behavior?

Due to the recent increased quantity of nutrition-related diseases worldwide, current research recommends exploring environmental factors that influence this trend. The Islands of Fiji are of particular concern because of the growing number of non- communicable diseases. On the same small island, nutrition problems vary according to demographic. Thus, the different environments of each demographic constitute diverse food environments, which are manifested in varied nutrition concerns. This study explored environmental motivators of food choice for the Fijian population. Gathering the perspectives of Fijian Islanders using a narrative inquiry research format proved to be insightful in measuring the environmental influences of decisions pertaining to food

High-Throughput Screening for Drug Discovery

The book focuses on various aspects and properties of high-throughput screening (HTS), which is of great importance in the development of novel drugs to treat communicable and non-communicable diseases. Chapters in this volume discuss HTS methodologies, resources, and technologies and highlight the significance of HTS in personalized and precision medicine