11,430 research outputs found
Time evolution of the behaviour of Brazilian legislative Representatives using a complex network approach
The follow up of Representative behavior after elections is imperative for a
democratic Representative system, at the very least to punish betrayal with no
re-election. Our goal was to show how to follow Representatives' and how to
show behavior in real situations and observe trends in political crises
including the onset of game changing political instabilities. We used
correlation and correlation distance matrices of Brazilian Representative votes
during four presidential terms. Re-ordering these matrices with Minimal
Spanning Trees displays the dynamical formation of clusters for the sixteen
year period, which includes one Presidential impeachment. The reordered
matrices, colored by correlation strength and by the parties clearly show the
origin of observed clusters and their evolution over time. When large clusters
provide government support cluster breaks, political instability arises, which
could lead to an impeachment, a trend we observed three years before the
Brazilian President was impeached. We believe this method could be applied to
foresee other political storms.Comment: 11 pages, 4 Figure
Reconceptualizing major policy change in the advocacy coalition framework: a discourse network analysis of German pension politics
How does major policy change come about? This article identifies and rectifies weaknesses in the conceptualization of innovative policy change in the Advocacy Coalition Framework. In a case study of policy belief change preceding an innovative reform in the German subsystem of old-age security, important new aspects of major policy change are carved out. In particular, the analysis traces a transition from one single hegemonic advocacy coalition to another stable coalition, with a transition phase between the two equilibria. The transition phase is characterized (i) by a bipolarization of policy beliefs in the subsystem and (ii) by state actors with shifting coalition memberships due to policy learning across coalitions or due to executive turnover. Apparently, there are subsystems with specific characteristics (presumably redistributive rather than regulative subsystems) in which one hegemonic coalition is the default, or the "normal state." In these subsystems, polarization and shifting coalition memberships seem to interact to produce coalition turnover and major policy change. The case study is based on discourse network analysis, a combination of qualitative content analysis and social network analysis, which provides an intertemporal measurement of advocacy coalition realignment at the level of policy beliefs in a subsystem
Opinion dynamics with backfire effect and biased assimilation
The democratization of AI tools for content generation, combined with unrestricted access to mass media for all (e.g. through microblogging and social media), makes it increasingly hard for people to distinguish fact from fiction. This raises the question of how individual opinions evolve in such a networked environment without grounding in a known reality. The dominant approach to studying this problem uses simple models from the social sciences on how individuals change their opinions when exposed to their social neighborhood, and applies them on large social networks.
We propose a novel model that incorporates two known social phenomena: (i) Biased Assimilation: the tendency of individuals to adopt other opinions if they are similar to their own; (ii) Backfire Effect: the fact that an opposite opinion may further entrench someone in their stance, making their opinion more extreme instead of moderating it. To the best of our knowledge this is the first DeGroot-type opinion formation model that captures the Backfire Effect. A thorough theoretical and empirical analysis of the proposed model reveals intuitive conditions for polarization and consensus to exist, as well as the properties of the resulting opinions
Quantifying and minimizing risk of conflict in social networks
Controversy, disagreement, conflict, polarization and opinion divergence in social networks have been the subject of much recent research. In particular, researchers have addressed the question of how such concepts can be quantified given people’s prior opinions, and how they can be optimized by influencing the opinion of a small number of people or by editing the network’s connectivity.
Here, rather than optimizing such concepts given a specific set of prior opinions, we study whether they can be optimized in the average case and in the worst case over all sets of prior opinions. In particular, we derive the worst-case and average-case conflict risk of networks, and we propose algorithms for optimizing these.
For some measures of conflict, these are non-convex optimization problems with many local minima. We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the nature of some of these local minima, and show how they are related to existing organizational structures.
Empirical results show how a small number of edits quickly decreases its conflict risk, both average-case and worst-case. Furthermore, it shows that minimizing average-case conflict risk often does not reduce worst-case conflict risk. Minimizing worst-case conflict risk on the other hand, while computationally more challenging, is generally effective at minimizing both worst-case as well as average-case conflict risk
Ideological and Temporal Components of Network Polarization in Online Political Participatory Media
Political polarization is traditionally analyzed through the ideological
stances of groups and parties, but it also has a behavioral component that
manifests in the interactions between individuals. We present an empirical
analysis of the digital traces of politicians in politnetz.ch, a Swiss online
platform focused on political activity, in which politicians interact by
creating support links, comments, and likes. We analyze network polarization as
the level of intra- party cohesion with respect to inter-party connectivity,
finding that supports show a very strongly polarized structure with respect to
party alignment. The analysis of this multiplex network shows that each layer
of interaction contains relevant information, where comment groups follow
topics related to Swiss politics. Our analysis reveals that polarization in the
layer of likes evolves in time, increasing close to the federal elections of
2011. Furthermore, we analyze the internal social network of each party through
metrics related to hierarchical structures, information efficiency, and social
resilience. Our results suggest that the online social structure of a party is
related to its ideology, and reveal that the degree of connectivity across two
parties increases when they are close in the ideological space of a multi-party
system.Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures, Internet, Policy & Politics Conference,
University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, 25-26 September 201
- …