Sequential Monte Carlo EM for multivariate probit models

Multivariate probit models (MPM) have the appealing feature of capturing some of the dependence structure between the components of multidimensional binary responses. The key for the dependence modelling is the covariance matrix of an underlying latent multivariate Gaussian. Most approaches to MLE in multivariate probit regression rely on MCEM algorithms to avoid computationally intensive evaluations of multivariate normal orthant probabilities. As an alternative to the much used Gibbs sampler a new SMC sampler for truncated multivariate normals is proposed. The algorithm proceeds in two stages where samples are first drawn from truncated multivariate Student $t$ distributions and then further evolved towards a Gaussian. The sampler is then embedded in a MCEM algorithm. The sequential nature of SMC methods can be exploited to design a fully sequential version of the EM, where the samples are simply updated from one iteration to the next rather than resampled from scratch. Recycling the samples in this manner significantly reduces the computational cost. An alternative view of the standard conditional maximisation step provides the basis for an iterative procedure to fully perform the maximisation needed in the EM algorithm. The identifiability of MPM is also thoroughly discussed. In particular, the likelihood invariance can be embedded in the EM algorithm to ensure that constrained and unconstrained maximisation are equivalent. A simple iterative procedure is then derived for either maximisation which takes effectively no computational time. The method is validated by applying it to the widely analysed Six Cities dataset and on a higher dimensional simulated example. Previous approaches to the Six Cities overly restrict the parameter space but, by considering the correct invariance, the maximum likelihood is quite naturally improved when treating the full unrestricted model.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures. In press, Computational Statistics & Data Analysi

Open TURNS: An industrial software for uncertainty quantification in simulation

The needs to assess robust performances for complex systems and to answer tighter regulatory processes (security, safety, environmental control, and health impacts, etc.) have led to the emergence of a new industrial simulation challenge: to take uncertainties into account when dealing with complex numerical simulation frameworks. Therefore, a generic methodology has emerged from the joint effort of several industrial companies and academic institutions. EDF R&D, Airbus Group and Phimeca Engineering started a collaboration at the beginning of 2005, joined by IMACS in 2014, for the development of an Open Source software platform dedicated to uncertainty propagation by probabilistic methods, named OpenTURNS for Open source Treatment of Uncertainty, Risk 'N Statistics. OpenTURNS addresses the specific industrial challenges attached to uncertainties, which are transparency, genericity, modularity and multi-accessibility. This paper focuses on OpenTURNS and presents its main features: openTURNS is an open source software under the LGPL license, that presents itself as a C++ library and a Python TUI, and which works under Linux and Windows environment. All the methodological tools are described in the different sections of this paper: uncertainty quantification, uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis and metamodeling. A section also explains the generic wrappers way to link openTURNS to any external code. The paper illustrates as much as possible the methodological tools on an educational example that simulates the height of a river and compares it to the height of a dyke that protects industrial facilities. At last, it gives an overview of the main developments planned for the next few years

Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Multigraded Hilbert Series of noncommutative modules

In this paper, we propose methods for computing the Hilbert series of multigraded right modules over the free associative algebra. In particular, we compute such series for noncommutative multigraded algebras. Using results from the theory of regular languages, we provide conditions when the methods are effective and hence the sum of the Hilbert series is a rational function. Moreover, a characterization of finite-dimensional algebras is obtained in terms of the nilpotency of a key matrix involved in the computations. Using this result, efficient variants of the methods are also developed for the computation of Hilbert series of truncated infinite-dimensional algebras whose (non-truncated) Hilbert series may not be rational functions. We consider some applications of the computation of multigraded Hilbert series to algebras that are invariant under the action of the general linear group. In fact, in this case such series are symmetric functions which can be decomposed in terms of Schur functions. Finally, we present an efficient and complete implementation of (standard) graded and multigraded Hilbert series that has been developed in the kernel of the computer algebra system Singular. A large set of tests provides a comprehensive experimentation for the proposed algorithms and their implementations.Comment: 28 pages, to appear in Journal of Algebr

Generalized Linear Models for Geometrical Current predictors. An application to predict garment fit

The aim of this paper is to model an ordinal response variable in terms of vector-valued functional data included on a vector-valued RKHS. In particular, we focus on the vector-valued RKHS obtained when a geometrical object (body) is characterized by a current and on the ordinal regression model. A common way to solve this problem in functional data analysis is to express the data in the orthonormal basis given by decomposition of the covariance operator. But our data present very important differences with respect to the usual functional data setting. On the one hand, they are vector-valued functions, and on the other, they are functions in an RKHS with a previously defined norm. We propose to use three different bases: the orthonormal basis given by the kernel that defines the RKHS, a basis obtained from decomposition of the integral operator defined using the covariance function, and a third basis that combines the previous two. The three approaches are compared and applied to an interesting problem: building a model to predict the fit of children’s garment sizes, based on a 3D database of the Spanish child population. Our proposal has been compared with alternative methods that explore the performance of other classifiers (Suppport Vector Machine and k-NN), and with the result of applying the classification method proposed in this work, from different characterizations of the objects (landmarks and multivariate anthropometric measurements instead of currents), obtaining in all these cases worst results