A hierarchical Mamdani-type fuzzy modelling approach with new training data selection and multi-objective optimisation mechanisms: A special application for the prediction of mechanical properties of alloy steels

In this paper, a systematic data-driven fuzzy modelling methodology is proposed, which allows to construct Mamdani fuzzy models considering both accuracy (precision) and transparency (interpretability) of fuzzy systems. The new methodology employs a fast hierarchical clustering algorithm to generate an initial fuzzy model efficiently; a training data selection mechanism is developed to identify appropriate and efficient data as learning samples; a high-performance Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) based multi-objective optimisation mechanism is developed to further improve the fuzzy model in terms of both the structure and the parameters; and a new tolerance analysis method is proposed to derive the confidence bands relating to the final elicited models. This proposed modelling approach is evaluated using two benchmark problems and is shown to outperform other modelling approaches. Furthermore, the proposed approach is successfully applied to complex high-dimensional modelling problems for manufacturing of alloy steels, using ‘real’ industrial data. These problems concern the prediction of the mechanical properties of alloy steels by correlating them with the heat treatment process conditions as well as the weight percentages of the chemical compositions

Learning Opposites with Evolving Rules

The idea of opposition-based learning was introduced 10 years ago. Since then a noteworthy group of researchers has used some notions of oppositeness to improve existing optimization and learning algorithms. Among others, evolutionary algorithms, reinforcement agents, and neural networks have been reportedly extended into their opposition-based version to become faster and/or more accurate. However, most works still use a simple notion of opposites, namely linear (or type- I) opposition, that for each $x\in[a,b]$ assigns its opposite as $\breve{x}_I=a+b-x$. This, of course, is a very naive estimate of the actual or true (non-linear) opposite $\breve{x}_{II}$, which has been called type-II opposite in literature. In absence of any knowledge about a function $y=f(\mathbf{x})$ that we need to approximate, there seems to be no alternative to the naivety of type-I opposition if one intents to utilize oppositional concepts. But the question is if we can receive some level of accuracy increase and time savings by using the naive opposite estimate $\breve{x}_I$ according to all reports in literature, what would we be able to gain, in terms of even higher accuracies and more reduction in computational complexity, if we would generate and employ true opposites? This work introduces an approach to approximate type-II opposites using evolving fuzzy rules when we first perform opposition mining. We show with multiple examples that learning true opposites is possible when we mine the opposites from the training data to subsequently approximate $\breve{x}_{II}=f(\mathbf{x},y)$.Comment: Accepted for publication in The 2015 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE 2015), August 2-5, 2015, Istanbul, Turke

Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S. regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table

Recent advances in directional statistics

Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999), still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics, image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference, hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future developments discussed.Comment: 61 page

Analysis and Application of Advanced Control Strategies to a Heating Element Nonlinear Model

open4siSustainable control has begun to stimulate research and development in a wide range of industrial communities particularly for systems that demand a high degree of reliability and availability (sustainability) and at the same time characterised by expensive and/or safety critical maintenance work. For heating systems such as HVAC plants, clear conflict exists between ensuring a high degree of availability and reducing costly maintenance times. HVAC systems have highly non-linear dynamics and a stochastic and uncontrollable driving force as input in the form of intake air speed, presenting an interesting challenge for modern control methods. Suitable control methods can provide sustainable maximisation of energy conversion efficiency over wider than normally expected air speeds and temperatures, whilst also giving a degree of “tolerance” to certain faults, providing an important impact on maintenance scheduling, e.g. by capturing the effects of some system faults before they become serious.This paper presents the design of different control strategies applied to a heating element nonlinear model. The description of this heating element was obtained exploiting a data driven and physically meaningful nonlinear continuous time model, which represents a test bed used in passive air conditioning for sustainable housing applications. This model has low complexity while achieving high simulation performance. The physical meaningfulness of the model provides an enhanced insight into the performance and functionality of the system. In return, this information can be used during the system simulation and improved model based and data driven control designs for tight temperature regulation. The main purpose of this study is thus to give several examples of viable and practical designs of control schemes with application to this heating element model. Moreover, extensive simulations and Monte Carlo analysis are the tools for assessing experimentally the main features of the proposed control schemes, in the presence of modelling and measurement errors. These developed control methods are also compared in order to evaluate advantages and drawbacks of the considered solutions. Finally, the exploited simulation tools can serve to highlight the potential application of the proposed control strategies to real air conditioning systems.openTurhan, T.; Simani, S.; Zajic, I.; Gokcen Akkurt, G.Turhan, T.; Simani, Silvio; Zajic, I.; Gokcen Akkurt, G

Perception-based fuzzy partitions for visual texture modelling

Visual textures in images are usually described by humans using linguistic terms related to their perceptual properties, like “very coarse”, “low directional”, or “high contrasted”. Computational models with the ability of providing a perceptual texture characterization on the basis of these terms can be very useful in tasks like semantic description of images, content-based image retrieval using linguistic queries, or expert systems design based on low level visual features. In this paper, we address the problem of simulating the human perception of texture, obtaining linguistic labels to describe it in natural language. For this modeling, fuzzy partitions defined on the domain of some of the most representative measures of each property are employed. In order to define the fuzzy partitions, the number of linguistic labels and the parameters of the membership functions are calculated taking into account the relationship between the computational values given by the measures and the human perception of the corresponding property. The performance of each fuzzy partition is analyzed and tested using the human assessments, and a ranking of measures is obtained according to their ability to represent the perception of the property, allowing to identify the most suitable measure

Speedup of Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic Systems Based on GPU for Robot Navigation

As the number of rules and sample rate for type 2 fuzzy logic systems (T2FLSs) increases, the speed of calculations becomes a problem. The T2FLS has a large membership value of inherent algorithmic parallelism that modern CPU architectures do not exploit. In the T2FLS, many rules and algorithms can be speedup on a graphics processing unit (GPU) as long as the majority of computation a various stages and components are not dependent on each other. This paper demonstrates how to install interval type 2 fuzzy logic systems (IT2-FLSs) on the GPU and experiments for obstacle avoidance behavior of robot navigation. GPU-based calculations are high-performance solution and free up the CPU. The experimental results show that the performance of the GPU is many times faster than CPU