802 research outputs found
Discovering Graphical Granger Causality Using the Truncating Lasso Penalty
Components of biological systems interact with each other in order to carry
out vital cell functions. Such information can be used to improve estimation
and inference, and to obtain better insights into the underlying cellular
mechanisms. Discovering regulatory interactions among genes is therefore an
important problem in systems biology. Whole-genome expression data over time
provides an opportunity to determine how the expression levels of genes are
affected by changes in transcription levels of other genes, and can therefore
be used to discover regulatory interactions among genes.
In this paper, we propose a novel penalization method, called truncating
lasso, for estimation of causal relationships from time-course gene expression
data. The proposed penalty can correctly determine the order of the underlying
time series, and improves the performance of the lasso-type estimators.
Moreover, the resulting estimate provides information on the time lag between
activation of transcription factors and their effects on regulated genes. We
provide an efficient algorithm for estimation of model parameters, and show
that the proposed method can consistently discover causal relationships in the
large , small setting. The performance of the proposed model is
evaluated favorably in simulated, as well as real, data examples. The proposed
truncating lasso method is implemented in the R-package grangerTlasso and is
available at http://www.stat.lsa.umich.edu/~shojaie.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl
Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models
High dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models require a large number of
parameters to be estimated and may suffer of inferential problems. We propose a
new Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) Lasso prior (BNP-Lasso) for high-dimensional
VAR models that can improve estimation efficiency and prediction accuracy. Our
hierarchical prior overcomes overparametrization and overfitting issues by
clustering the VAR coefficients into groups and by shrinking the coefficients
of each group toward a common location. Clustering and shrinking effects
induced by the BNP-Lasso prior are well suited for the extraction of causal
networks from time series, since they account for some stylized facts in
real-world networks, which are sparsity, communities structures and
heterogeneity in the edges intensity. In order to fully capture the richness of
the data and to achieve a better understanding of financial and macroeconomic
risk, it is therefore crucial that the model used to extract network accounts
for these stylized facts.Comment: Forthcoming in "Journal of Econometrics" ---- Revised Version of the
paper "Bayesian nonparametric Seemingly Unrelated Regression Models" ----
Supplementary Material available on reques
Penalized Likelihood Methods for Estimation of Sparse High Dimensional Directed Acyclic Graphs
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are commonly used to represent causal
relationships among random variables in graphical models. Applications of these
models arise in the study of physical, as well as biological systems, where
directed edges between nodes represent the influence of components of the
system on each other. The general problem of estimating DAGs from observed data
is computationally NP-hard, Moreover two directed graphs may be observationally
equivalent. When the nodes exhibit a natural ordering, the problem of
estimating directed graphs reduces to the problem of estimating the structure
of the network. In this paper, we propose a penalized likelihood approach that
directly estimates the adjacency matrix of DAGs. Both lasso and adaptive lasso
penalties are considered and an efficient algorithm is proposed for estimation
of high dimensional DAGs. We study variable selection consistency of the two
penalties when the number of variables grows to infinity with the sample size.
We show that although lasso can only consistently estimate the true network
under stringent assumptions, adaptive lasso achieves this task under mild
regularity conditions. The performance of the proposed methods is compared to
alternative methods in simulated, as well as real, data examples.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure
Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets
Identifying causal relationships and quantifying their strength from observational time series data are key problems in disciplines dealing with complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system or the human body. Data-driven causal inference in such systems is challenging since datasets are often high dimensional and nonlinear with limited sample sizes. Here, we introduce a novel method that flexibly combines linear or nonlinear conditional independence tests with a causal discovery algorithm to estimate causal networks from large-scale time series datasets. We validate the method on time series of well-understood physical mechanisms in the climate system and the human heart and using large-scale synthetic datasets mimicking the typical properties of real-world data. The experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in detection power, which opens up entirely new possibilities to discover and quantify causal networks from time series across a range of research fields
High-Dimensional Dependency Structure Learning for Physical Processes
In this paper, we consider the use of structure learning methods for
probabilistic graphical models to identify statistical dependencies in
high-dimensional physical processes. Such processes are often synthetically
characterized using PDEs (partial differential equations) and are observed in a
variety of natural phenomena, including geoscience data capturing atmospheric
and hydrological phenomena. Classical structure learning approaches such as the
PC algorithm and variants are challenging to apply due to their high
computational and sample requirements. Modern approaches, often based on sparse
regression and variants, do come with finite sample guarantees, but are usually
highly sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters, e.g., parameter
for sparsity inducing constraint or regularization. In this paper, we present
ACLIME-ADMM, an efficient two-step algorithm for adaptive structure learning,
which estimates an edge specific parameter in the first step,
and uses these parameters to learn the structure in the second step. Both steps
of our algorithm use (inexact) ADMM to solve suitable linear programs, and all
iterations can be done in closed form in an efficient block parallel manner. We
compare ACLIME-ADMM with baselines on both synthetic data simulated by partial
differential equations (PDEs) that model advection-diffusion processes, and
real data (50 years) of daily global geopotential heights to study information
flow in the atmosphere. ACLIME-ADMM is shown to be efficient, stable, and
competitive, usually better than the baselines especially on difficult
problems. On real data, ACLIME-ADMM recovers the underlying structure of global
atmospheric circulation, including switches in wind directions at the equator
and tropics entirely from the data.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures, International Conference on Data Mining 201
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