The war effect: a macro view of the economic and environmental situation of Ukraine

Today, Ukraine find itself in a very difficult situation, on the one hand, the already unstable economy has just begun to recover after the coronavirus crisis; on the other hand, it is suffering colossal losses from Russian aggression. The article examines the current economic and ecological state of Ukraine, considering the influence of such drastic external factors as a military invasion with the aim of determining the prerequisites for the formation of an effective social and environmental policy and developing approaches to the improvement and stabilization of the national economy. To achieve the goals of the article, have been used intersectoral balance and in particular economic impact analysis (EIA), which was conducted on the example of the Ukrainian agricultural sector, because it is one of the three driving forces of its economy. The results of the study showed the scenarios of possible changes and their consequences for the economy of the state as a whole, and in the future can be used for study in order to develop new and improve existing methods of solving socio-economic problems at the national level and preserving natural capital, as one of the key elements on path to sustainable development.18 página

Global Food Price Shock and the Poor in Egypt and Ukraine

The global food price shock of 2006-2008 has particularly affected poorer strata of populations in several developing countries. In Egypt and some other countries it has put food subsidy schemes to the test. This paper develops two comparable computable general equilibrium models for Egypt and Ukraine which are used to simulate direct and indirect impacts of the food price surge and various policy options on the performance of the main macroeconomic indicators as well as on poverty outcomes. The results illustrate the limited ability of realistic policy responses to mitigate negative social consequences of an external price shock. Food import tariff cuts are a partial remedy faring better than other analysed options. Furthermore, the Egyptian system of food subsidies needs substantial reforms limiting the related fiscal burden and improving the targeting of the poor population.food subsidy, agriculture, price shock, poverty, Ukraine, Egypt

Accession to the WTO. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: the Case of Ukraine. Part II.

This research studies the accession of a transition country to the World Trade Organization on the case of Ukraine. Quantitative results are obtained by building a Computable General Equilibrium model in the mathematical programming language General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS). Four scenarios are simulated: 1) import tariffs reform; 2) improvement of exports access; 3) improvement of investment climate and 4) the scenario that combines previous three, or a full WTO accession. The results of the model show that in all scenarios there is growth of both exports and imports. By contrast, output and household consumption levels vary from scenario to scenario. The first two simulations, tariff reform and improvement of export access, show no significant change in domestic production and consumption. Thus, with expanded trade and practically the same output and consumption, Ukraine merely becomes more open and shifts to foreign trade. In the third scenario, improvement of investment climate has the most favourable results. Owning to better allocation of resources, both domestic production and consumption expand and the welfare of households increases by nearly 10% of consumption or 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The combined scenario shows a somewhat smaller but still significant improvement in welfare: over 8% of consumption or 1.8% of GDP

Accession to the WTO. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: the Case of Ukraine. Part II.

This research studies the accession of a transition country to the World Trade Organization on the case of Ukraine. Quantitative results are obtained by building a Computable General Equilibrium model in the mathematical programming language General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS). Four scenarios are simulated: 1) import tariffs reform; 2) improvement of exports access; 3) improvement of investment climate and 4) the scenario that combines previous three, or a full WTO accession. The results of the model show that in all scenarios there is growth of both exports and imports. By contrast, output and household consumption levels vary from scenario to scenario. The first two simulations, tariff reform and improvement of export access, show no significant change in domestic production and consumption. Thus, with expanded trade and practically the same output and consumption, Ukraine merely becomes more open and shifts to foreign trade. In the third scenario, improvement of investment climate has the most favourable results. Owning to better allocation of resources, both domestic production and consumption expand and the welfare of households increases by nearly 10% of consumption or 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The combined scenario shows a somewhat smaller but still significant improvement in welfare: over 8% of consumption or 1.8% of GDP

Impact of foreign direct investments on export of Russian Federation

06.03.2018 tarihli ve 30352 sayılı Resmi Gazetede yayımlanan “Yükseköğretim Kanunu İle Bazı Kanun Ve Kanun Hükmünde Kararnamelerde Değişiklik Yapılması Hakkında Kanun” ile 18.06.2018 tarihli “Lisansüstü Tezlerin Elektronik Ortamda Toplanması, Düzenlenmesi ve Erişime Açılmasına İlişkin Yönerge” gereğince tam metin erişime açılmıştır.Bu çalışmada Rusya federasyonu özelinde kabul edilen doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile ihracat arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Çalışmamıza teorik girdi oluşturması bakımından konu ile ilgili olarak daha once yapılan çalışmalar kapsamlı olarak taranmış ve konu ile ilgili olan önemli çalışmalar Literatür taraması başlığı altında verilmiştir. Bu çalışma için 1996 – 2016 yılları arasında çeyrek dönemler bazında doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve ihracat istatistikleri kullanılmış, söz konusu istatistikler Rusya İstatistik Kurumu ve Merkez Banka verilerinden derlenmiştir. Araştırılan ilişkinin analizi için E-Views ekonometri paket programı ile Granger Nedesellik testi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Granger nedensellik testi sonuçları Ampirik bulgular başlığı altında tartışılmış ve sonuç kısmında yorumlanmıştır.This study aims to analyze the relationship between inward foreign direct investments (FDI) and export in Russian Federation. Previous researches related to our topic have been examined broadly in terms of the theoretical input to our work and the most important were provided under the Literature Review. For the analysis quarterly data from 1996 till 2016 for FDI, export and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), provided by National Committee of Statistics of Russian Federation and Central Bank has been used. E-Views Econometric Modeling and Analysis Package and Granger Casualty Test have been used for the research of relationship. The results of Granger Casualty Test are provided in the Empirical Results section and explained in Conclusio

The Role of Services in Total Productivity Growth of Indian Manufacturing Firms: A Firm Level Analysis Since 2000

Services were considered non-tradable in the initial stages (in the mid-eighties). However, with the advent of Information Communication and Technology (ICT) and other modern services, services have become increasingly tradable day by day. Since, the eighties, there had been a rapid expansion of the Indian service sector, surpassing the agriculture and manufacturing sector. With the expansion, important services like communication, financial, transport, insurance, research and development, business services, legal services and other professional services etc. were on high demand in the manufacturing sector. Absence of such important services would act as a bottleneck in major investment projects of a manufacturing firm. Specialized services obtained from the external agency would help the firm to focus on its non-core activities and improve its productivity growth and competitiveness. Against this backdrop, the study mainly examines the role of services in enhancing the productivity growth of the Indian Manufacturing firms since 2000. The firm level data was collected from Prowess database. The study was done at the aggregate and disaggregated level. The results conclude that services have been playing a positive role in enhancing the productivity growth of the manufacturing sector and also for the industry group like textile group, machinery group etc. However, for the Electronics Group services did not play a significant role so far

Assessment of Russian embargo impact on economies of the EU countries

The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of Russia’s embargo on the economies of most affected EU countries. Russia is the fourth largest trading partner and the second largest importer of Europe’s agriculture products. According to the Eurostat, Russia’s food import counts approximately 10% of Europe’s total export of agriculture and food products. In June 2014, the European Union (EU) adopted a series of economic sanctions against Russia due to the Ukraine’s territorial crisis. As retaliation, Russia imposed a one-year food embargo on the import of a whole range of food products from the EU, Norway, Australia, Canada and the USA on 7 August 2014. In June 2015 the ban was extended to be effective until August 5, 2016, and it may be subsequently extended for another 1-year period. The most affected European countries are: the Baltic States, Finland, Poland, and Germany (as shown in the database of GTAP 2011). The impact of Russia’s counter-sanction on the economy of the EU countries is assessed in this study by conducting Input-Output multiplier analysis together with comparison studies. In order to allow a holistic view of the impact on the interested regions, the disaggregated Input-Output matrix for those four European countries of interest is constructed from the dataset of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) in 2011. The results show that the impact on the whole economy of these four countries is moderate in terms of their change in GDP, but it does have significant negative impacts on certain industries of each economy, for instance, bovine meat industry in Germany, vegetables and fruits in both Baltic States and Poland, and dairy products in Finland. These impacts on production level may further forward its negative effects to the related labors and firms who run the risk of losing their income due to the embargo

Unilateral climate policy and competitiveness: The implications of differential emission pricing

Unilateral emission reduction commitments raise concerns on international competitiveness and emission leakage that result in preferential regulatory treatment of domestic energy-intensive and trade-exposed industries. Our analysis illustrates the potential pitfalls of climate policy design which narrowly focuses on competitiveness concerns about energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) branches. The sector-specific gains of preferential regulation in favour of these branches must be traded off against the additional burden imposed on other industries. Beyond burden shifting between industries, differential emission pricing bears the risk for substantial excess cost in emission reduction as policy concedes (too) low carbon prices to EITE industries and thereby foregoes relatively cheap abatement options in these sectors. From the perspective of global cost-effectiveness we find that differential emission pricing of EITE industries hardly reduces emission leakage since the latter is driven through robust international energy market responses to emission constraints. As a consequence the scope for efficiency compared to uniform pricing is very limited. Only towards stringent emission reduction targets will a moderate price differentiation achieve sufficient gains from leakage reduction to offset the losses of diverging marginal abatement cost.unilateral climate policy design, leakage, competitiveness

Uncertainty propagation and environmental input-output modelling : evidence from Russia

Combustion of fossil fuels accounts for the large majority of the global greenhouse gas emissions. Russia is a major producer of fossil fuels and hence one of the leaders in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. A significant body of literature incorporates Russia within a multi-regional framework, but no comprehensive study assessed its role in a single-region setting. The aim of this thesis is to study the production structure of the Russian economy, its embodied carbon emissions, and the drivers of the embodied emission changes over the course of 1980-2013. To accomplish this objective, input-output modeling methodology and the data from two different national sources are utilized. Due to concerns about the quality of national data, comprehensive sensitivity tests are carried out on derived input-output multipliers to stochastic perturbations using Monte Carlo simulation approach and norm theory. It is shown that the underlying input-output system is well-behaved. Multipliers are stable and converge to the long-run equilibrium similar to those derived from German data as well as the WIOD and Eora databases. Through the application of input-output modeling methodology we provide a comprehensive study of the underlying inter-industrial relations which characterize the flow structure and the technology state of the Russian economy. Thereafter, we employ an environmentally extended input-output modeling framework in the structural decomposition analysis to study the drivers of changes in energy-related CO2 emissions. The obtained results provide insights for the effective implementation of environmental policy