Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks

STAND: A Spatio-Temporal Algorithm for Network Diffusion Simulation

Information, ideas, and diseases, or more generally, contagions, spread over space and time through individual transmissions via social networks, as well as through external sources. A detailed picture of any diffusion process can be achieved only when both a good network structure and individual diffusion pathways are obtained. The advent of rich social, media and locational data allows us to study and model this diffusion process in more detail than previously possible. Nevertheless, how information, ideas or diseases are propagated through the network as an overall process is difficult to trace. This propagation is continuous over space and time, where individual transmissions occur at different rates via complex, latent connections. To tackle this challenge, a probabilistic spatiotemporal algorithm for network diffusion (STAND) is developed based on the survival model in this research. Both time and spatial distance are used as explanatory variables to simulate the diffusion process over two different network structures. The aim is to provide a more detailed measure of how different contagions are transmitted through various networks where nodes are geographic places at a large scale

Mean-field diffusive dynamics on weighted networks

Diffusion is a key element of a large set of phenomena occurring on natural and social systems modeled in terms of complex weighted networks. Here, we introduce a general formalism that allows to easily write down mean-field equations for any diffusive dynamics on weighted networks. We also propose the concept of annealed weighted networks, in which such equations become exact. We show the validity of our approach addressing the problem of the random walk process, pointing out a strong departure of the behavior observed in quenched real scale-free networks from the mean-field predictions. Additionally, we show how to employ our formalism for more complex dynamics. Our work sheds light on mean-field theory on weighted networks and on its range of validity, and warns about the reliability of mean-field results for complex dynamics.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Entropy Rate of Diffusion Processes on Complex Networks

The concept of entropy rate for a dynamical process on a graph is introduced. We study diffusion processes where the node degrees are used as a local information by the random walkers. We describe analitically and numerically how the degree heterogeneity and correlations affect the diffusion entropy rate. In addition, the entropy rate is used to characterize complex networks from the real world. Our results point out how to design optimal diffusion processes that maximize the entropy for a given network structure, providing a new theoretical tool with applications to social, technological and communication networks.Comment: 4 pages (APS format), 3 figures, 1 tabl

Who Contributes to the Knowledge Sharing Economy?

Information sharing dynamics of social networks rely on a small set of influencers to effectively reach a large audience. Our recent results and observations demonstrate that the shape and identity of this elite, especially those contributing \emph{original} content, is difficult to predict. Information acquisition is often cited as an example of a public good. However, this emerging and powerful theory has yet to provably offer qualitative insights on how specialization of users into active and passive participants occurs. This paper bridges, for the first time, the theory of public goods and the analysis of diffusion in social media. We introduce a non-linear model of \emph{perishable} public goods, leveraging new observations about sharing of media sources. The primary contribution of this work is to show that \emph{shelf time}, which characterizes the rate at which content get renewed, is a critical factor in audience participation. Our model proves a fundamental \emph{dichotomy} in information diffusion: While short-lived content has simple and predictable diffusion, long-lived content has complex specialization. This occurs even when all information seekers are \emph{ex ante} identical and could be a contributing factor to the difficulty of predicting social network participation and evolution.Comment: 15 pages in ACM Conference on Online Social Networks 201

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio