DIFFUSION AND FORECAST OF MOBILE SERVICE GENERATIONS IN GERMANY, UK, FRANCE AND ITALY – A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON BASS, GOMPERTZ AND SIMPLE LOGISTIC GROWTH MODELS

Growth models, based on the theory of diffusion of innovations, are highly proficient in developing an empirical understanding of country-wide diffusion of mobile services. The currently available literature lacks in explanation of the diffusion of successive generations (G’s) of mobile services in various countries. This study furthers the research by analyzing the diffusion of 2G through 4G in Germany, UK, France and Italy, the four largest economies of Europe. We select Bass, Gompertz and Simple Logistic growth models, to analyze the diffusion process, and forecast the adoption of 3G, 4G and 5G mobile broadband, in the four countries. A comparative analysis of the diffusion model parameters, and the forecasting accuracies, estimated through non-linear least-square regression, determines Gompertz and Simple Logistic model as best suited to explain 3G and 4G diffusion, and Bass model as best suited to explain 2G diffusion. Market potential for 3G, 4G and 5G is the highest in France, Germany and Italy, respectively. However, subscribers are more likely to make a direct jump from 2G to 4G in Italy and Germany, compared to UK and France where the gradual switch from 3G to 4G to 5G is likely to be much slower

The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures: Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in Transport

This book tries to merge two streams of analysis: diffusion research, a relatively recent interdisciplinary field, and the long established disciplines of transportation planning and the economic history of transport systems. After World War II, diffusion research emerged simultaneously from a number of disciplines, including sociology, geography, and the economics of technological change. For over a hundred years economic historians have provided many detailed, but often fragmented studies of the development and socio-economic impacts of individual transport systems. At a conference held at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in 1989 on Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior it became clear that while many valuable theories and models have been developed, a unifying theoretical framework has not yet emerged in diffusion research. This is related to the fact that research has almost exclusively concentrated on a micro-level analysis of technological or social/cultural change. This book makes a contribution toward bridging the different fields of diffusion research. First, by providing an overview of the different theoretical streams within the discipline, and secondly by studying diffusion phenomena for technological change at the sectoral level up to the macro-level diffusion of pervasive transport systems. The economic history of transportation has provided many prominent examples of the fruitfulness of blending macro theory with a strong empirical basis at the sectoral level. It was not the objective of this work to develop a new comprehensive theory of infrastructure development. Instead, the study aimed at combining the methodological apparatus developed within diffusion research with the empirical research tradition of the economic history of transportation. Its objective was to provide a synthetic description, covering all successive transport modes both individually in their historical evolution, and in their integration into a holistic view of the whole transport sector. The analysis is international and spans about 200 years, i.e., the developments in a number of countries are studied to highlight similarities and differences in development patterns. With such objectives, this work is both a risky and a necessarily limited effort, but it has been undertaken in the hope of providing some new perspectives for people working in, or interested in both fields

Forecasting the Impact of Growing Shares of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles on Future Emissions of Carbon Dioxide and Air Quality Pollutants

Electric vehicles such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles are a low-pollution low-carbon alternative to conventional petrol and diesel vehicles. They currently only represent a fraction of the vehicle fleet, but demand and supply is rapidly accelerating. It is important to understand the changes in relative costs of electric vehicles, to inform scenarios of the future vehicle fleet mix and subsequent impacts on expected trends in emissions of carbon dioxide and air quality pollutants. This is of interest to policymakers worldwide who are under pressure to cut carbon emissions and improve urban air quality. Barriers to adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles still exist including the high initial cost. Total Cost of Ownership considers all vehicle costs to ascertain whether the cheaper running costs of electric vehicles can offset the higher initial cost. By modelling hybrid vehicle ownership costs from 2000 to 2015 in different geographic vehicle markets a link between cost and adoption is proven. This research found that ownership costs of hybrid and electric vehicles are falling compared to conventional vehicles, with costs already cheaper in the UK, USA and Japan with the current subsidies available, and findings that by 2030, subsidies could be phased out. This study uses three future fleet scenarios resulting from an extended generalized bass model. This model includes a fleet turnover unit with an age based scrappage curve to create scenarios of hybrid and electric vehicle uptake, which also includes the on-road fleet share of petrol and diesel vehicles by Euro standard. These scenarios characterize three different futures: Business as Usual, Battery Bonanza (where the current 2040 target of 100% hybrid and electric vehicle market share is met) and Diesel Persists, where battery price, fuel price and subsidy level vary depending upon market conditions. Hybrid and electric vehicles have lower operational CO2 and NOx emissions; however, most modelling studies to date are based on either single vehicle models or high-level estimates. This thesis assesses the impact the evolving fleet has on trends in tail-pipe emissions of CO2 and NOX from 2015 to 2040 over a typical UK urban road network. A coupled microscopic traffic and instantaneous emission-modelling framework that can properly account for the impact of traffic congestion was used to assess vehicle emissions over 24-hours of a typical day for the three future vehicle fleet scenarios. This thesis concludes that the adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles could reduce network level emissions of CO2 and NOx by up to 31.6% and 95% respectively by 2040, with greater effects during congested conditions

Contribution to energy consumption modelling and forecast in next generation access networks

La contribución del sector de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (TICs) al consumo de energía a nivel global se ha visto incrementada considerablemente en la última década al mismo tiempo que su relevancia dentro de la economía global. Se prevé que esta tendencia continúe debido al uso cada vez más intensivo de estas tecnologías. Una de las principales causas es el tráfico de datos de banda ancha generado por el uso de las redes de telecomunicaciones. De hecho como respuesta a esta demanda de recursos por parte de los usuarios, de la industria de las telecomunicaciones está iniciando el despliegue de las redes de nueva generación. En cualquier caso, el consumo de energía es un factor generalmente ausente del debate sobre el despliegue de estas tecnologías, a pesar de la posible repercusión que pueda llegar a tener en los costes y la sostenibilidad de estos proyectos. A lo largo de este trabajo se desarrollan modelos para evaluar el consumo energético de las redes de acceso de nueva generación (NGAN). Estos servirán tanto para llevar a cabo cálculos en un escenario global estático, como en cualquiera otro que determine la potencial evolución de la red de acceso a lo largo de su despliegue. Estos modelos combinan tres factores: la penetración prospectiva de cada una de las tecnologías de banda ancha analizadas, el tráfico generado por usuario y su futura evolución, y el perfil de consumo de energía de cada uno de los dispositivos de red desplegados. Tras evaluar los resultados derivados de la aplicación de los modelos en el caso demográfico específico de España, se obtienen conclusiones acerca de las diferencias tecnológicas en cuanto al consumo energético, sus implicaciones económicas, y la sensibilidad de los cálculos atendiendo a posibles modificaciones en los valores de referencia de diferentes parámetros de diseño. Se destaca por tanto el efecto en el consumo energético de los desarrollos tecnológicos, tecno-económicos, y de las decisiones en el ámbito regulatorio. Aunque como se ha dicho, se ha ejemplificado el cálculo para un caso particular, tanto los modelos como las conclusiones extraídas se pueden extrapolar a otros países similares

Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior

The diffusion of innovations is at the core of the dynamic processes that underlie social, economic, and technological change. Diffusion phenomena are not limited to the spread of new process technologies and the market penetration of new products but extend also to changes in the forms of social organization and transformations in the social fabric and cultural traits. This book is the outcome of the diffusion of the concept of diffusion as a fundamental process in society. Originating from biology, diffusion research is now carried out in many disciplines including economics, geography, history, technological change, sociology, and management science. The book illustrates the progress that has been made in understanding the nature of diffusion processes and their underlying driving forces. The contributions by leading scholars provide a novel interdisciplinary perspective and span a wide range of modeling and empirical research backgrounds

PARAMETRIC AND NON-PARAMETRIC APPROACHES FOR THE PREDICTION OF THE DIFFUSION OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE

Driven by environmental awareness and new regulations for fuel efficiency, electric vehicles (EVs) have significantly evolved in the last decade, yet their market share is still much lower than expected. In addition to understanding the reasons for this slow market penetration, it is crucial to have appropriate tools to correctly predict the diffusion of this innovative product. Recent works in forecasting the EV market combine substitution and diffusion models, where discrete choice specifications are used to address the former, and Bass-type to account for the latter. However, these methodologies are not dynamic and do not consider the fact that innovation occurs through social channels among members of a social system. This research presents two advanced methodologies that make use of real data to evaluate the adoption of the EVs in the State of Maryland. The first consists of a disaggregated substitution model that considers social influence and social conformity, which is then embedded in a diffusion model to predict electric vehicle sales. The second, in contrast, relies on non-parametric machine learning techniques for the classification of potential EV purchasers. Both make use of data collected through a stated choice experiment specifically designed to capture the inclination of users towards EVs

Econometric Advances in Diffusion Models

This thesis gives new and important insights in modeling diffusion data in marketing. It addresses

Space-temporal analysis of radiocarbon evidence and associated archaeological record: from Danube to Ebro rivers and from Bronze to Iron Ages

In this thesis we have approached the historical problem of cultural standardization at the end of Bronze Age. In particular, we have analyzed phenomena of expansion and adoption of innovation which took place in the 2nd millennium BC in Europe. To tackle this issue, we have decided to follow a quantitative approach. From a methodological point of view, the starting point has been the development of the EUBAR database which collects more than 1700 14C dates of georeferenced archaeological contexts, defined by a set of variables of presence/absence of some functional types. The analyzed region embraces an area from the Ebro to the Danube River (namely, NE Iberian Peninsula, Southern France, Northern Italy, Switzerland, Austria and Southern Germany); the time-span is 1750-750 BC. The critical analysis of each dating, concerning the taphonomic and stratigraphic information of each sample, represents the backbone of the database. The first goal has been to propose a new chronological model based on Bayesian statistical analysis of 14C dates from reliable archaeological contexts in northern Italy and southern France. Although the number of reliable dates for macroscale research remains low, it has been possible to develop four different models with the software OxCal, two contiguous ones and two sequential ones. Focusing on descriptive statistics, the 14C chronology of northern Italy seemed to be slightly higher than the conventional one, while that of southern France is confirmed by the Bayesian models. In both cases, the results claim the absolute necessity of an increase in the amount of 14C dates from selected archaeological contexts. The second goal has been to model demographic continuities and discontinuities between 1800 and 800 BC; the last term is due to the “Hallstatt disaster”. Through the analysis of frecuency of radiocarbon dates collected in the EUBAR database we have infered population stationarity on a macro-scale from the Danube to the Ebro. On the contrary, summed probability calibrated distributions (SCPDs) and histograms of medians show that episodes of change express locally. The third goal has been to detect three phenomena of adoption of innovation which took place in the 2nd millennium BC, i.e. cremation burials, vases with handles with vertical expansion and metal knives. In particular we have been able to observe that the adoption of cremation rite within the Urnfield culture followed a positive exponential trend on a macro-scale with different beginnings in different regions. Such an assumption allowed modeling the spatio-temporal diffusion of cremation burials which has shown to be characterized by a clear east to west gradient from the North-Western Alpine region to the NE of Iberian Peninsula. The same east to west directivity has been recognized for vases with handles with vertical expansion. Eventually, the thesis proposes the architecture of an Agent Based Model for explaining phenomena of diffusion and adoption of innovation in early complex societies

Life Cycles and Long Waves

The selected papers presented in this volume are from a workshop held in Montpellier, France. It was intended to focus on possible relationships between "so-called" long waves in the economy and (shorter) "life cycles" in industry and technology. This book is only a small "window" into the wide and interesting range of long-term dynamic processes discussed at the workshop. Other topics presented at the workshop included cultural developments, national evolution, education, ecological systems, social identity, and problems of technology and finance. The book also contains interesting methodological papers on general systems theory

Proceedings /5th International Symposium on Industrial Engineering – SIE2012, June 14-15, 2012., Belgrade

editors Dragan D. Milanović, Vesna Spasojević-Brkić, Mirjana Misit