Importance Sketching of Influence Dynamics in Billion-scale Networks

The blooming availability of traces for social, biological, and communication networks opens up unprecedented opportunities in analyzing diffusion processes in networks. However, the sheer sizes of the nowadays networks raise serious challenges in computational efficiency and scalability. In this paper, we propose a new hyper-graph sketching framework for inflence dynamics in networks. The central of our sketching framework, called SKIS, is an efficient importance sampling algorithm that returns only non-singular reverse cascades in the network. Comparing to previously developed sketches like RIS and SKIM, our sketch significantly enhances estimation quality while substantially reducing processing time and memory-footprint. Further, we present general strategies of using SKIS to enhance existing algorithms for influence estimation and influence maximization which are motivated by practical applications like viral marketing. Using SKIS, we design high-quality influence oracle for seed sets with average estimation error up to 10x times smaller than those using RIS and 6x times smaller than SKIM. In addition, our influence maximization using SKIS substantially improves the quality of solutions for greedy algorithms. It achieves up to 10x times speed-up and 4x memory reduction for the fastest RIS-based DSSA algorithm, while maintaining the same theoretical guarantees.Comment: 12 pages, to appear in ICDM 2017 as a regular pape

Causal Inference in Disease Spread across a Heterogeneous Social System

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is challenging due to invisible causality between events and their time-evolving intensity. We infer causal relationships between infections and quantify the reflexivity of a meta-population, the level of feedback on event occurrences by its internal dynamics (likelihood of a regional outbreak triggered by previous cases). These are enabled by our new proposed model, the Latent Influence Point Process (LIPP) which models disease spread by incorporating macro-level internal dynamics of meta-populations based on human mobility. We analyse 15-year dengue cases in Queensland, Australia. From our causal inference, outbreaks are more likely driven by statewide global diffusion over time, leading to complex behavior of disease spread. In terms of reflexivity, precursory growth and symmetric decline in populous regions is attributed to slow but persistent feedback on preceding outbreaks via inter-group dynamics, while abrupt growth but sharp decline in peripheral areas is led by rapid but inconstant feedback via intra-group dynamics. Our proposed model reveals probabilistic causal relationships between discrete events based on intra- and inter-group dynamics and also covers direct and indirect diffusion processes (contact-based and vector-borne disease transmissions).Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1711.0635

From Micro to Macro: Uncovering and Predicting Information Cascading Process with Behavioral Dynamics

Cascades are ubiquitous in various network environments. How to predict these cascades is highly nontrivial in several vital applications, such as viral marketing, epidemic prevention and traffic management. Most previous works mainly focus on predicting the final cascade sizes. As cascades are typical dynamic processes, it is always interesting and important to predict the cascade size at any time, or predict the time when a cascade will reach a certain size (e.g. an threshold for outbreak). In this paper, we unify all these tasks into a fundamental problem: cascading process prediction. That is, given the early stage of a cascade, how to predict its cumulative cascade size of any later time? For such a challenging problem, how to understand the micro mechanism that drives and generates the macro phenomenons (i.e. cascading proceese) is essential. Here we introduce behavioral dynamics as the micro mechanism to describe the dynamic process of a node's neighbors get infected by a cascade after this node get infected (i.e. one-hop subcascades). Through data-driven analysis, we find out the common principles and patterns lying in behavioral dynamics and propose a novel Networked Weibull Regression model for behavioral dynamics modeling. After that we propose a novel method for predicting cascading processes by effectively aggregating behavioral dynamics, and propose a scalable solution to approximate the cascading process with a theoretical guarantee. We extensively evaluate the proposed method on a large scale social network dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly outperform other state-of-the-art baselines in multiple tasks including cascade size prediction, outbreak time prediction and cascading process prediction.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figure