Establishing the Presence of a Risk Premium in the Cocoa Futures Market: An Econometric Analysis

Previous attempts at identifying and estimating a time-varying risk premium in the cocoa futures market yielded conflicting results. Using a longer series that includes the most recent cash and futures data, the existence of a time-varying risk premium in the cocoa futures market is re-investigated using LM ARCH tests and a Quadratic ARCH in Mean Error Correction Model. In contrast to available research the time series properties of the data are carefully accounted for by employing the most recent econometric techniques in testing for the presence of a risk premium. No evidence is found in support of a positive time-varying [or constant] risk premium in the cocoa futures market at conventional significance levels. The result suggests that cocoa producing countries have one less cost to consider in deciding whether or not to hedge cocoa price risk using futures contracts.Cocoa, Futures markets, time-varying risk premium, error-correction model, Agribusiness, Marketing, M,

MARKET-MAKING BEHAVIOR IN FUTURES MARKETS

This paper examines voluntary market-making behavior, namely scalping, in futures markets. Specifically, this paper studies what factors determine scalpers' entry and exit, and how scalping affects market liquidity and price volatility. The data used for the analysis are time-stamped electronic transaction data marked with traders' identities from the Dalian Futures Exchanges in China. The contributions of this paper are: (1) to give detailed analysis of scalping behavior and its impact on market liquidity; (2) to develop new econometric tools for analyzing time-series count data; (3) to propose a new measure of liquidity.Liquidity, Market-Making, Futures Markets, Scalpers, Autoregressive Conditional Intensity (ACI), Volatility, Marketing,

The Effect of Corporate Break-ups on Information Asymmetry: A Market Microstructure Analysis

This paper investigates the information environment during and after a corporate break-up utilizing direct measures of information asymmetry developed in the market microstructure literature. The analysis is based on all corporate break-ups in the United States in the period 1995-2005. The results document that information asymmetry declines significantly as a result of a break-up. However, this reduction takes place not at the time of its announcement or its completion, but after it has been fully consummated. At the same time, not all investors are equally affected, but informed investors who generate private information by skilled analysis of public information come to play a more important role compared to traditional corporate insiders. This might explain why financial advisors promote break-ups among their corporate clients, as they are likely beneficiaries. The positive stock-market reaction to break-up announcements is significantly related to reductions in insider-related information asymmetry, indicating that the advantage of skilled information analysts does not offset the overall improvement in the information environment due to a break-up.Spin-off, Divestiture, Information asymmetry

DOES THE EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH INTO PRICES CHANGE WHEN INFLATION TARGETING IS ADOPTED? THE PERUVIAN CASE STUDY BETWEEN 1994 AND 2007

This paper analyzes whether the exchange rate pass-through into prices changed when the inflation targeting scheme was adopted in Peru. Firstly, a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is simulated, which shows that adopting this scheme induces an increase in exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, applying the theory of the currency denomination of international trade, it is demonstrated that increased exchange rate volatility reduces the share of firms that set their prices in foreign currency (dollars). Given that the pass-though has a direct relationship with this share, it is shown that adopting inflation targeting generates a pass-through contraction. Secondly, we empirically test whether the Peruvian Central Bank’s decision to adopt inflation targeting in January 2002 actually had an effect on the pass-through estimating a time-varying vector autoregressive model which allows for an asymmetrical estimation of the pass-through. It provides parameters for both the pre and post inflation targeting regimes based on the assumption that the transition from one regime to the other is smooth. An analysis of the generalized impulse response functions reveals that the decision to adopt inflation targeting significantly decreased the exchange rate pass-throughs into import, producer, and consumer prices. The results are consistent with economic theory and are robust to the specification of parameters of the model.Inflation targeting/exchange rate pass-through into prices/ TV-VAR models

Worker’s remittances as stable financial flows: some evidence from India

This paper dwells upon the financial dimension of workers’ remittances as this issue has assumed significant policy attention across the spectrum of developing countries. Specifically, it addresses the following: i) Literature on workers’’ remittances in a macro economic framework; ii) Stability of workers’ remittances as a sustainable source of external finance; iii) Channels through the workers’ remittances flows into India and the issue of high transaction cost entailed in transmitting funds; and (iv) Impact of policy reforms in India on the modes of remittance transfers.Workers' remittances; financial flows; transaction cost

Dollarization hysteresis and network externalities: theory and evidence from an informal Bolivian credit market

This paper considers network externalities from currency acceptability as a determinant of observed persistence of dollarization in Latin American countries. A model with efficiencies from establishing a network of currency users is constructed. Model implications are then tested using a unique data set of daily loan records from an informal Bolivian credit market. Empirical results are consistent with dollarization hysteresis being driven by network externalities from currency adoption. The results also imply that credible exchange rate stabilization policy alone is not sufficient to achieve dollarization reversal.Bolivia ; Latin America ; Dollar, American

Domestic or U.S. News: What Drives Canadian Financial Markets?

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Canadian and U.S. central bank communication and macroeconomic news on Canadian bond, stock, and foreign exchange market returns and volatility. First, central bank communication and macro news from both countries have an impact on Canadian financial markets. Second, Canadian central bank communication is more relevant than its U.S. counterpart, whereas in the case of macro news, that originating from the United States dominates. Third, we find evidence that the impact of Canadian news reaches its maximum when the Canadian target rate departs from the Federal Funds target rate (2002–2004) and thereafter. The introduction of fixed announcement dates (FAD) initially does not cause a noticeable break in the data. Finally, Canadian and U.S. target rate changes lead to higher price volatility, and so does other U.S. news. Other Canadian news, however, lowers price volatility.Bank of Canada, Central Bank Communication, Federal Reserve Bank, Financial Markets, Macroeconomic News, Monetary Policy

Idiosyncratic Risk, Market Risk and Correlation Dynamics in European Equity Markets

We examine total, market and idiosyncratic risk and correlation dynamics using daily data from 1993 to 2001 on the 6 largest euro-zone stock market indices and 42 firms from the Dow Jones Eurostoxx50 index. We also estimate conditional correlations using the asymmetric DCC-MVGARCH model. Comparing our results with those of Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel and Xu (2001), stock correlations are higher and have declined less in the euro-zone than in the United States over the 1990s, implying a lower benefit from diversification strategies. By contrast,correlations amongst market indices have risen, with a structural break related to the process of financial integration in the euro-zone.WTO, agricultural protection, trade liberalization, poverty alleviation