1,162 research outputs found
Particle-filtering approaches for nonlinear Bayesian decoding of neuronal spike trains
The number of neurons that can be simultaneously recorded doubles every seven
years. This ever increasing number of recorded neurons opens up the possibility
to address new questions and extract higher dimensional stimuli from the
recordings. Modeling neural spike trains as point processes, this task of
extracting dynamical signals from spike trains is commonly set in the context
of nonlinear filtering theory. Particle filter methods relying on importance
weights are generic algorithms that solve the filtering task numerically, but
exhibit a serious drawback when the problem dimensionality is high: they are
known to suffer from the 'curse of dimensionality' (COD), i.e. the number of
particles required for a certain performance scales exponentially with the
observable dimensions. Here, we first briefly review the theory on filtering
with point process observations in continuous time. Based on this theory, we
investigate both analytically and numerically the reason for the COD of
weighted particle filtering approaches: Similarly to particle filtering with
continuous-time observations, the COD with point-process observations is due to
the decay of effective number of particles, an effect that is stronger when the
number of observable dimensions increases. Given the success of unweighted
particle filtering approaches in overcoming the COD for continuous- time
observations, we introduce an unweighted particle filter for point-process
observations, the spike-based Neural Particle Filter (sNPF), and show that it
exhibits a similar favorable scaling as the number of dimensions grows.
Further, we derive rules for the parameters of the sNPF from a maximum
likelihood approach learning. We finally employ a simple decoding task to
illustrate the capabilities of the sNPF and to highlight one possible future
application of our inference and learning algorithm
Markovian Dynamics on Complex Reaction Networks
Complex networks, comprised of individual elements that interact with each
other through reaction channels, are ubiquitous across many scientific and
engineering disciplines. Examples include biochemical, pharmacokinetic,
epidemiological, ecological, social, neural, and multi-agent networks. A common
approach to modeling such networks is by a master equation that governs the
dynamic evolution of the joint probability mass function of the underling
population process and naturally leads to Markovian dynamics for such process.
Due however to the nonlinear nature of most reactions, the computation and
analysis of the resulting stochastic population dynamics is a difficult task.
This review article provides a coherent and comprehensive coverage of recently
developed approaches and methods to tackle this problem. After reviewing a
general framework for modeling Markovian reaction networks and giving specific
examples, the authors present numerical and computational techniques capable of
evaluating or approximating the solution of the master equation, discuss a
recently developed approach for studying the stationary behavior of Markovian
reaction networks using a potential energy landscape perspective, and provide
an introduction to the emerging theory of thermodynamic analysis of such
networks. Three representative problems of opinion formation, transcription
regulation, and neural network dynamics are used as illustrative examples.Comment: 52 pages, 11 figures, for freely available MATLAB software, see
http://www.cis.jhu.edu/~goutsias/CSS%20lab/software.htm
Estimation of sentiment effects in financial markets: A simulated method of moments approach
We take the model of Alfarano et al. (Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 32, 2008, 101-136) as a prototype agent-based model that allows reproducing the main stylized facts of financial returns. The model does so by combining fundamental news driven by Brownian motion with a minimalistic mechanism for generating boundedly rational sentiment dynamics. Since we can approximate the herding component among an ensemble of agents in the aggregate by a Langevin equation, we can either simulate the model in full at the micro level, or investigate the impact of sentiment formation in an aggregate asset pricing equation. In the simplest version of our model, only three parameters need to be estimated. We estimate this model using a simulated method of moments (SMM) approach. As it turns out, sensible parameter estimates can only be obtained if one first provides a rough "mapping" of the objective function via an extensive grid search. Due to the high correlations of the estimated parameters, uninformed choices will often lead to a convergence to any one of a large number of local minima. We also find that even for large data sets and simulated samples, the efficiency of SMM remains distinctly inferior to that of GMM based on the same set of moments. We believe that this feature is due to the limited range of moments available in univariate asset pricing models, and that the sensitivity of the present model to the specification of the SMM estimator could carry over to many related agent-based models of financial markets as well as to similar diffusion processes in mathematical finance
Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation
These notes are designed with the aim of providing a clear and concise
introduction to the subjects of Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation, and
their inter-relations, together with citations to some relevant literature in
this area. The first half of the notes is dedicated to studying the Bayesian
framework for inverse problems. Techniques such as importance sampling and
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are introduced; these methods have the
desirable property that in the limit of an infinite number of samples they
reproduce the full posterior distribution. Since it is often computationally
intensive to implement these methods, especially in high dimensional problems,
approximate techniques such as approximating the posterior by a Dirac or a
Gaussian distribution are discussed. The second half of the notes cover data
assimilation. This refers to a particular class of inverse problems in which
the unknown parameter is the initial condition of a dynamical system, and in
the stochastic dynamics case the subsequent states of the system, and the data
comprises partial and noisy observations of that (possibly stochastic)
dynamical system. We will also demonstrate that methods developed in data
assimilation may be employed to study generic inverse problems, by introducing
an artificial time to generate a sequence of probability measures interpolating
from the prior to the posterior
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