The 'New Economy' and Economic Growth in Transition Economies

post-communist transition, new economy, ICT, economic growth

Computer Adoption and Returns in Transition

Across nine transition economies, it is the young, educated, English-speaking workers with the best access to local telecommunications infrastructures that work with computers. These workers earn about 25% more than do workers of comparable observable skills who do not use computers. Controlling for likely simultaneity between computer use at work and labor market earnings makes the apparent returns to computer use disappear. These results are corroborated using Russian longitudinal data on earnings and computer use on the job. High costs of computer use in transition economies suppress wages that firms can pay their workers who use computers.

Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro

This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative to the euro area for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40140/3/wp754.pd

Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro

This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative to the euro area for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.Inflation targeting; Monetary convergence; Euro adoption; EU new Member States.

Abstracts : Policy Research working paper series - numbers 2754 - 2802

This paper contains abstracts of Policy Research working paper series, numbers 2754 - 2802.Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Poverty Assessment,Economic Theory&Research

Assessing the potential for knowledge-based development in transition countries. Bruegel Working Paper 2010/01, May 2010

This Working Paper by Bruegel Senior Fellow Reinhilde Veugelers examines the potential for a knowledge-based growth path in transition countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. The paper looks closely at how total-factor productivity, a residual growth factor commonly interpreted as reflecting technological progress, drives growth rates in these economies which exhibit a much lower GDP per capita compared to the EU15 or the United States. By analysing the prerequisites for knowledge-based growth, the author explains why transition countries are at a systemic disadvantage relative to the EU15, US and Japan and have limited potential for knowledge-based growth

Options for the exchange rate policies in the EU accession countries (and other emerging market economies)

We develop an institutional framework for central banks that try to pursue a stability-oriented monetary policy with the strategy of exchange rate targeting. Recent experience shows that a crucial element of this approach is to avoid destabilising capital inflows. Policy makers can exert monetary pressure by two different but interrelated channels: the interest rate and the exchange rate. We introduce an open-economy Taylor rule which determines the domestic interest rate of a central bank targeting a depreciation of its exchange rate. The interrelation of the two channels is taken into account by a risk premium adjusted uncovered interest parity condition. In our view sustained violations of this constraint provide an important explanation for the problem of speculative capital inflows. We distinguish between two basically different types of pegs: fixed nominal exchange rate targets and flexible nominal exchange rate targets. With the lessons that we draw from the past experiences of these regimes in Asia, Latin America, Eastern and Central Europe and the ERM I, we develop a framework for the exchange rate strategies of the accession countries during their path towards EMU entry. --EU accession countries,monetary integration,emerging market economies,flexible nominal exchange rate target,open-economy Taylor rule,UIP,risk premium,monetary conditions index,capital flows

The Diffusion of the Internet and the Geography of the Digital Divide in the United States

This paper analyses the rapid diffusion of the Internet across the United States over the past decade for both households and firms. We put the Internet's diffusion into the context of economic diffusion theory where we consider costs and benefits on the demand and supply side. We also discuss several pictures of the Internet's physical presence using some of the current main techniques for Internet measurement. We highlight different economic perspectives and explanations for the digital divide, that is, unequal availability and use of the Internet.