An Economic and Life Cycle Analysis of Regional Land Use and Transportation Plans, Research Report 11-25

Travel and emissions models are commonly applied to evaluate the change in passenger and commercial travel and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use and transportation plans. Analyses conducted by the Sacramento Area Council of Governments predict a decline in such travel and emissions from their land use and transportation plan (the “Preferred Blueprint” or PRB scenario) relative to a “Business-As-Usual” scenario (BAU). However, the lifecycle GHG effects due to changes in production and consumption associated with transportation and land use plans are rarely, if ever, conducted. An earlier study conducted by the authors, applied a spatial economic model (Sacramento PECAS) to the PRB plan and found that lower labor, transport, and rental costs increased producer and consumer surplus and production and consumption relative to the BAU. As a result, lifecycle GHG emissions from these upstream economic activities may increase. At the same time, lifecycle GHG emissions associated with the manufacture of construction materials for housing may decline due to a shift in the plan from larger luxury homes to smaller multi-family homes in the plan. To explore the net impact of these opposing GHG impacts, the current study used the economic production and consumption data from the PRB and BAU scenarios as simulated with the Sacramento PECAS model as inputs to estimate the change in lifecycle GHG emissions. The economic input-output lifecycle assessment model is applied to evaluate effects related to changes in economic production and consumption as well as housing construction. This study also builds on the findings from two previous studies, which suggest potential economic incentives for jurisdictional non-compliance with Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCSs) under Senate Bill 375 (also known as the “anti-sprawl” bill). SB 375 does not require local governments to adopt general plans that are consistent with the land use plans included in SCSs, and thus such incentives could jeopardize implementation of SCSs and achievement of GHG goals. In this study, a set of scenarios is simulated with the Sacramento PECAS model, in which multiple jurisdictions partially pursue the BAU at differing rates. The PRB is treated as a straw or example SCS. The scenarios are evaluated to understand how non-conformity may influence the supply of housing by type, and holding other factors constant, the geographic and income distribution of rents, wages, commute costs, and consumer surplus

The contribution of ecological footprinting to planning policy development: using REAP to evaluate policies for sustainable housing construction

The complexity of the sustainable-development policy goal is such that policy makers are searching for tools to enable them to evaluate and develop policy directions. To date, ecological footprinting has been used mainly for raising awareness of environmental impacts but it also has considerable potential as a policy tool, enabling policy makers in their strategic work. The paper presents an application of a specific ecological footprinting development, the REAP (Resource and Energy Analysis Programme) tool, to a current policy issue, the promotion of sustainable construction. Using the London Plan of the Greater London Authority as a case study, it considers the strengths and weaknesses of this approach and how it can contribute to policy development

Insufficient Incentives for Investment in Electricity Generation

In theory, competitive electricity markets can provide incentives for efficient investment in generating capacity. We show that if consumers and investors are risk averse, investment is efficient only if investors in generating capacity can sign long-term contracts with consumers. Otherwise the uncovered price risk increases financing costs, reduces equilibrium investment levels, distorts technology choice towards less capital-intensive generation and reduces consumer utility. We observe insufficient levels of long-term contracts in existing markets, possibly because retail companies are not credible counter-parties if their final customer can switch easily. With consumer franchise, retailers can sign long-term contracts, but this solution comes at the expense of the idea of retail competition. Alternative capacity mechanisms to stimulate investment are discussed

Operational planning and bidding for district heating systems with uncertain renewable energy production

In countries with an extended use of district heating (DH), the integrated operation of DH and power systems can increase the flexibility of the power system achieving a higher integration of renewable energy sources (RES). DH operators can not only provide flexibility to the power system by acting on the electricity market, but also profit from the situation to lower the overall system cost. However, the operational planning and bidding includes several uncertain components at the time of planning: electricity prices as well as heat and power production from RES. In this publication, we propose a planning method that supports DH operators by scheduling the production and creating bids for the day-ahead and balancing electricity markets. The method is based on stochastic programming and extends bidding strategies for virtual power plants to the DH application. The uncertain factors are considered explicitly through scenario generation. We apply our solution approach to a real case study in Denmark and perform an extensive analysis of the production and trading behaviour of the DH system. The analysis provides insights on how DH system can provide regulating power as well as the impact of uncertainties and renewable sources on the planning. Furthermore, the case study shows the benefit in terms of cost reductions from considering a portfolio of units and both markets to adapt to RES production and market states

Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?

This paper examines the relationship among consumer price index, industrial production, stock market and oil prices in Greece. Initially we use a unified statistical framework (cointegration and VECM) to study the data in levels. We then employ a multivariate VAR model to examine the relationship between the cyclical components of our series. The period of the study is from 1996:1 – 2008:6. Findings suggest that oil prices and the stock market exercise a positive effect on the Greek CPI, in the long run. Cyclical components analysis suggests that oil prices exercise significant negative influence to the stock market. In addition, oil prices are negatively influencing CPI, at a significant level. However, we find no effect of oil prices on industrial production and CPI. Finally, no relationship can be documented between the industrial production and stock market for the Greek market. The findings of this study are of a particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek economy and the Greek stock market

Environmental, human health and socio-economic effects of cement powders: The multicriteria analysis as decisional methodology

The attention to sustainability-related issues has grown fast in recent decades. The experience gained with these themes reveals the importance of considering this topic in the construction industry, which represents an important sector throughout the world. This work consists on conducting a multicriteria analysis of four cement powders, with the objective of calculating and analysing the environmental, human health and socio-economic effects of their production processes. The economic, technical, environmental and safety performances of the examined powders result from official, both internal and public, documents prepared by the producers. The Analytic Hierarchy Process permitted to consider several indicators (i.e., environmental, human health related and socio-economic parameters) and to conduct comprehensive and unbiased analyses which gave the best, most sustainable cement powder. As assumed in this study, the contribution of each considered parameter to the overall sustainability has a different incidence, therefore the procedure could be used to support on-going sustainability efforts under different conditions. The results also prove that it is not appropriate to regard only one parameter to identify the ‘best’ cement powder, but several impact categories should be considered and analysed if there is an interest for pursuing different, often conflicting interests