LM-type tests for idiosyncratic and common unit roots in the exact factor model with AR(1) dynamics

Recent developments within the panel unit-root literature have illustrated how the exact factor model serves as a parsimonious framework and allows for consistent maximum likelihood inference even when it is misspecified contra the more general approximate factor model. In this paper we consider an exact factor model with AR(1) dynamics and propose LM-type tests for idiosyncratic and common unit roots. We derive the asymptotic distributions and carry out simulations to investigate size and power of the tests in finite samples, as well as compare the performance with some existing tests

European Integration, Productivity Growth and Real Convergence

This paper derives a stochastic endogenous growth model that investigates the impact of European Union integration on convergence and productivity growth. We deviate from the general strand of literature by not only deriving a theoretical model for the effects of integration on the rate of economic growth, but also by using more appropriate estimation techniques. The outcome of a series of panel and structural break tests examining the accession process of five recent members to the Union generally show improved rates of productivity growth and convergence to EU standards. We then draw from the experience of these recent members to derive implications for the first-round EU candidate countries. Subsequent tests on the first-round candidate countries find a high level of heterogeneity in growth rates, and a fast-paced convergence to EU standards.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40043/3/wp657.pd

Panel Data Tests Of PPP: A Critical Overview

This paper reviews recent developments in the analysis of non-stationary panels, focusing on empirical applications of panel unit root and cointegration tests in the context of PPP. It highlights various drawbacks of existing methods. First, unit root tests suffer from severe size distortions in the presence of negative moving average errors. Second, the common demeaning procedure to correct for the bias resulting from homogeneous cross-sectional dependence is not effective; more worryingly, it introduces cross-correlation when it is not already present. Third, standard corrections for the case of heterogeneous cross-sectional dependence do not generally produce consistent estimators. Fourth, if there is between-group correlation in the innovations, the SURE estimator is affected by similar problems to FGLS methods, and does not necessarily outperform OLS. Finally, cointegration between different groups in the panel could also be a source of size distortions. We offer some empirical guidelines to deal with these problems, but conclude that panel methods are unlikely to solve the PPP puzzl

Modelling Ireland’s exchange rates: from EMS to EMU

This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the analysis in the standard I(1)/I(0) framework are highlighted and comparisons with previous Irish studies are made. Tests for fractional integration and nonlinearity, including random field regressions, are discussed and applied. The results obtained highlight the likely inadequacies of the standard cointegration and STAR approaches to modelling, and point instead to multiple structural changes models. Using this approach, both bilateral nominal exchange rates are effectively modelled, and in the case of Ireland and Germany, PPP is found to be valid not only in the long run, but also in the medium term. JEL Classification: C22, C51, F31, F41fractional Dickey-Fuller tests, multiple structural changes models, purchasing power parity, random field regression, smooth transition autoregression

Modelling Ireland’s Exchange Rates - From EMS to EMU

This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (Ppp), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the analysis in the standard I(1)/I(0) framework are highlighted and comparisons with previous Irish studies are made. Tests for fractional integration and nonlinearity, including random field regressions, are discussed and applied. The results obtained highlight the likely inadequacies of the standard cointegration and Star approaches to modelling, and point instead to multiple structural changes models. Using this approach, both bilateral nominal exchange rates are effectively modelled, and in the case of Ireland and Germany, Ppp is found to be valid not only in the long run, but also in the medium term.Purchasing power parity; fractional Dickey-Fuller tests; smooth transition autoregression; random field regression; multiple structural changes models

Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels

This paper provides a review of the literature on unit roots and cointegration in panels where the time dimension (T), and the cross section dimension (N) are relatively large. It distinguishes between the first generation tests developed on the assumption of the cross section independence, and the second generation tests that allow, in a variety of forms and degrees, the dependence that might prevail across the different units in the panel. In the analysis of cointegration the hypothesis testing and estimation problems are further complicated by the possibility of cross section cointegration which could arise if the unit roots in the different cross section units are due to common random walk components

Unit labor costs and the price level

Prices ; Wages

Equity Diversification in Two Chinese Share Markets: Old Wine and New Bottle

This study provides evidence that there exist long-run benefits for investors from diversifying in two Chinese share markets over the period January 5, 2000 to December 31, 2005. The evidence is based on tests for pairwise cointegration between the Shanghai and Shenzhen¡¦s A-share and B-share stock price indexes, using five cointegration tests, namely PO, HI, JJ, KSS, and BN approaches. The results from these five tests are robust and consistent in suggesting that these two Chinese share markets are not pairwise cointegrated with each other. These findings could be valuable to individual investors and financial institutions holding long-run investment portfolios in these two Chinese share markets.

Econometrics: A bird's eye view

As a unified discipline, econometrics is still relatively young and has been transforming and expanding very rapidly over the past few decades. Major advances have taken place in the analysis of cross sectional data by means of semi-parametric and non-parametric techniques. Heterogeneity of economic relations across individuals, firms and industries is increasingly acknowledge and attempts have been made to take them into account either by integrating out their effects or by modeling the sources of heterogeneity when suitable panel data exists. The counterfactual considerations that underlie policy analysis and treatment evaluation have been given a more satisfactory foundation. New time series econometric techniques have been developed and employed extensively in the areas of macroeconometrics and finance. Non-linear econometric techniques are used increasingly in the analysis of cross section and time series observations. Applications of Bayesian techniques to econometric problems have been given new impetus largely thanks to advances in computer power and computational techniques. The use of Bayesian techniques have in turn provided the investigators with a unifying framework where the tasks and forecasting, decision making, model evaluation and learning can be considered as parts of the same interactive and iterative process; thus paving the way for establishing the foundation of the "real time econometrics". This paper attempts to provide an overview of some of these developments