Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports

Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling

Liberalizing air cargo services in APEC

This study aims at assessing the link between a more liberal air cargo regime and increased bilateral merchandise trade in the Asia Pacific region, under the auspices of APEC. Using the gravity model and employing the Air Liberalisation Index (ALI) developed by the WTO Secretariat, this paper finds strong support for two hypotheses. First, more liberal air services policies are positively, significantly and robustly associated with higher bilateral trade in merchandise. The results also show that air transport policy matters more for some sectors than for others. A particularly strong relationship is found between bilateral liberalisation and trade in manufactured goods, time sensitive products, and parts and components. Considering the sector found to be most sensitive to the degree of aviation liberalisation, the estimates imply that a one point increase in the ALI is associated with an increase of 4% in bilateral parts and components trade, prior to taking account of general equilibrium effects. These findings have important policy implications. In particular, economies actively seeking greater integration in international production networks could greatly benefit from a more liberal aviation policy regime.Aviation; international trade in services; liberalization; international trade in goods; parts and components trade; production networks; APEC.

An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet

Civil aviation and tourism demand in Montenegro: A panel data approach

Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to investigate the role of civil aviation in the case of Montenegro, one of the smallest countries in Europe and one whose economy heavily relies on tourism. Methods: For this research, a dynamic panel data approach is used, where five models are proposed for modelling tourism demand. Available seats per kilometer, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, jet fuel prices, exchange rates, and seasonality are used as the models' explanatory variables, in line with the available litetrature. Results: The econometric results show that all suggested models are valid, the explanatory variables are statistically significant, and their coefficients have the expected sign, suggesting a strong relationship between tourism demand and civil aviation. Implications: Apart from being one of the first attempts to highlight the civil aviation and tourism nexus in the context of Montenegro, this paper contributes to the literature by suggesting a way forward for destination managers and policymakers in small countries with great tourism potential

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption

Competing destinations and intervening opportunities interaction models of inter-city telecommunication flows

This research makes use of a large sample (600,000) of individual telephone calls between local exchanges (cities, villages) within a U.S. region. Callers and callees are identified by their 4-digit SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) code. The intersectoral and interlocational flows (number of messages and conversation minutes) are aggregated into major economic sectors (Agriculture, Manufacturing, Retail Trade ...., and Households), and are analyzed by estimating, in a simultaneous equation framework, spatial interaction models that account for (1) the role of the spatial structure, which reflects the competition and agglomeration effects that take place among the flow destinations, and (2) the role of the reverse flows, which reflect the process of information creation necessary to complete intersectoral economic transactions. A particular focus is set on Fotheringham's competing destinations model and Stoufer's intervening opportunities model, while accounting for the effects of place hierarchy. A theoretical framework is presented, to guide the interpretation of the empirical results and their policy implications regarding the impacts of telecommunications deregulation, transportation and telecommunications interactions, and the role of information technologies in fostering the development of rural and peripheral areas.