3,048 research outputs found

    Artificial intelligence models for predicting cardiovascular diseases in people with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review

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    BACKGROUND: People with type 2 diabetes have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. We aim to distil the evidence, summarize the developments, and identify the gaps in relevant research on predicting cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes people using AI techniques in the last ten years. METHODS: A systematic search was carried out for literature published between 1st January 2010 and 30th May 2021 in five medical and scientific databases, including Medline, EMBASE, Global Health (CABI), IEEE Xplore and Web of Science Core Collection. All English language studies describing AI models for predicting cardiovascular diseases in adults with type 2 diabetes were included. The retrieved studies were screened and the data from included studies were extracted by two reviewers. The survey and synthesis of extracted data were conducted based on predefined research questions. IJMEDI checklist was used for quality assessment. RESULTS: From 176 articles identified by the search, 5 studies with sample sizes ranging from 560 to 203,517 met our inclusion criteria. The models predicted the risk of multiple cardiovascular diseases over 5 or 10 years. Ensemble learning, particularly random forest, is the most used algorithm in these models and consistently provided competitive performance. Commonly used features include age, body mass index, blood pressure measurements, and cholesterol measurements. Only one study carried out external validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for derivation cohorts varied from 0.69 to 0.77. AI models achieved better performance than conventional models in some specific scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: AI technologies seem to show promising performance (AUROC in external validation: 0.75 compared to 0.69 from conventional risk scores) for cardiovascular disease prediction in type 2 diabetes people. However, only one of the reviewed models conducted an external validation. Quality of reporting was low in general, and all models lack reproducibility and reusability

    Two-year effectiveness of a stepped-care depression prevention intervention and predictors of incident depression in primary care patients with diabetes type 2 and/or coronary heart disease and subthreshold depression; data from the Step-Dep cluster randomized controlled trial

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    Introduction Major depressive disorders (MDD), diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) and coronary heart disease (CHD) are leading contributors to the global burden of disease and often co-occur. Objectives To evaluate the two-year effectiveness of a stepped-care intervention to prevent MDD compared to usual care and to develop a prediction model for incident depression in DM2 and/or CHD patients with subthreshold depression. Methods Data of 236 Dutch primary care DM2/CHD patients with subthreshold depression (Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) score โ‰ฅ6, no current MDD according to the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (DSM-IV criteria)), who participated in the Step-Dep trial were used. A PHQ-9 score of โ‰ฅ10 at minimally one measurement during follow-up (at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 months) was used to determine the cumulative incidence of MDD. Potential demographic and psychological predictors were measured at baseline via web-based self-reported questionnaires and evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model. Model performance was assessed with the Hosmerโ€“Lemeshow test, Nagelkerkeโ€™s R2 explained variance and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC). Bootstrapping techniques were used to internally validate our model. Results 192 patients (81%) were available at two-year follow-up. The cumulative incidence of MDD was 97/192 (51%). There was no statistically significant overall treatment effect over 24 months of the intervention (OR 1.37; 95% CI 0.52; 3.55). Baseline levels of anxiety, depression, the presence of >3 chronic diseases and stressful life-events predicted the incidence of MDD (AUC 0.80 interquartile range (IQR) 0.79-0.80; Nagelkerkeโ€™s R2 0.34 IQR 0.33-0.36). Conclusion A model with four factors predicted depression incidence during two-year follow-up in patients with DM2/CHD accurately, based on the AUC. The Step-Dep intervention did not influence the incidence of MDD. Future depression prevention programs should target patients with these four predictors present, and aim to reduce both anxiety and depressive symptoms

    External validation and extension of a diagnostic model for obstructive coronary artery disease: A cross-sectional predictive evaluation in 4888 patients of the Austrian Coronary Artery disease Risk Determination in Innsbruck by diaGnostic ANgiography (CARDIIGAN) cohort

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    __Objective__ To externally validate and extend a recently proposed prediction model to diagnose obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), with the ultimate aim to better select patients for coronary angiography. __Design__ Analysis of individual baseline data of a prospective cardiology cohort. __Setting__ Single-centre secondary and tertiary cardiology clinic. __Participants__ 4888 patients with suspected CAD, without known previous CAD or other heart diseases, who underwent an elective coronary angiography between 2004 and 2008 as part of the prospective Coronary Artery disease Risk Determination In Innsbruck by diaGnostic ANgiography (CARDIIGAN) cohort. Relevant data were recorded as in routine clinical practice. __Main outcome measures__ The probability of obstructive CAD, defined as a stenosis of minimally 50% diameter in at least one of the main coronary arteries, estimated with the predictors age, sex, type of chest pain, diabetes status, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, smoking status and laboratory data. Missing predictor data were multiply imputed. Performance of the suggested models was evaluated according to discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, depicted by the c statistic) and calibration. Logistic regression modelling was applied for model updating. __Results__ Among the 4888 participants (38% women and 62% men), 2127 (44%) had an obstructive CAD. The previously proposed model had a c statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.70), which was lower than the expected c statistic while correcting for case mix (c=0.80). Regarding calibration, there was overprediction of risk for high-risk patients. All logistic regression coefficients were smaller than expected, especially for the predictor รข โ‚ฌ chest pain'. Ext

    The clinical value of metabolic syndrome and risks of cardiometabolic events and mortality in the elderly: The Rotterdam study

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    Background: To evaluate the clinical value of metabolic syndrome based on different definitions [American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR)] in middle-aged and elderly populations. Methods: We studied 8643 participants from the Rotterdam study (1990-2012; mean age 62.7; 57.6% female), a large prospective population-based study with predominantly elderly participants. We performed cox-proportional hazards models for different definitions, triads within definitions and each separate component for the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular- and all-cause mortality. Results: In our population of 8643 subjects, metabolic syndrome was highly prevalent (prevalence between 19.4 and 42.4%). Metabolic syndrome in general was associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (median follow-up of 6.8years, hazard ratios 3.13-3.78). The associations with coronary heart disease (median follow-up of 7.2years, hazard ratios 1.08-1.32), stroke (median follow-up of 7.7years, hazard ratios 0.98-1.32), cardiovascular mortality (median follow-up of 8.2years, ratios 0.95-1.29) and all-cause mortality (median follow-up of 8.7years, hazard ratios 1.05-1.10) were weaker. AHA/NHLBI- and IDF-definitions showed similar associations with clinical endpoints compared to the EGIR, which was only significantly associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. All significant associations disappeared after correcting metabolic syndrome for its individual components. Conclusions: Large variability exists between and within definitions of the metabolic syndrome with respect to risk of clinical events and mortality. In a relatively old population the metabolic syndrome did not show an additional predictive value on top of its individual components. So, besides as a manner of easy identification of high risk patients, the metabolic syndrome does not seem to add any predictive value for clinical practice

    International variation in outcomes among people with cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors and impaired glucose tolerance: insights from the NAVIGATOR Trial

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    Background: Regional differences in risk of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular outcomes in people with impaired glucose tolerance are poorly characterized. Our objective was to evaluate regional variation in risk of newโ€onset diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular outcomes, and treatment effects in participants from the NAVIGATOR (Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research) trial. Methods and Results: NAVIGATOR randomized people with impaired glucose tolerance and cardiovascular risk factors or with established cardiovascular disease to valsartan (or placebo) and to nateglinide (or placebo) with a median 5โ€year followโ€up. Data from the 9306 participants were categorized by 5 regions: Asia (n=552); Europe (n=4909); Latin America (n=1406); North America (n=2146); and Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa (n=293). Analyzed outcomes included newโ€onset diabetes mellitus; cardiovascular death; a composite cardiovascular outcome of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke; and treatment effects of valsartan and nateglinide. Respective unadjusted 5โ€year risks for newโ€onset diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular death, and the composite cardiovascular outcome were 33%, 0.4%, and 4% for Asia; 34%, 2%, and 6% for Europe; 37%, 4%, and 8% for Latin America; 38%, 2%, and 6% for North America; and 32%, 4%, and 8% for Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. After adjustment, compared with North America, European participants had a lower risk of newโ€onset diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.78โ€“0.94; P=0.001), whereas Latin American participants had a higher risk of cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 2.68, 95% CI 1.82โ€“3.96; P<0.0001) and the composite cardiovascular outcome (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.15โ€“1.92; P=0.003). No differential interactions between treatment and geographic location were identified. Conclusions: Major regional differences regarding the risk of newโ€onset diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular outcomes in NAVIGATOR participants were identified. These differences should be taken into account when planning global trials

    ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์งˆํ™˜ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์˜ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ํ•™์Šต ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจํ˜• ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ

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    ํ•™์œ„๋…ผ๋ฌธ(๋ฐ•์‚ฌ) -- ์„œ์šธ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต๋Œ€ํ•™์› : ์˜๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ•™ ์˜๊ณผํ•™๊ณผ, 2022. 8. ๋ฐ•์ˆ˜๊ฒฝ.์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ: ์ธ๊ตฌ์˜ ๊ณ ๋ นํ™”์™€ ์„œ๊ตฌํ˜• ์ƒํ™œ์–‘์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์งˆํ™˜ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜ (๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์••, ๋‹น๋‡จ๋ณ‘, ๋ฐ ๊ณ ์ง€ํ˜ˆ์ฆ ๋“ฑ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ๋‘๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์งˆํ™˜์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ •์˜)์˜ ์œ ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜์€ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ์—ฐ๊ด€๋œ๋‹ค. 2016๋…„ Global Burden of Disease์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜์— ์˜ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋ง์€ 21์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ฃผ์š” ์‚ฌ๋ง ์›์ธ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋‚˜๋ผ์—์„œ๋Š” ์•”์— ์ด์–ด ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ๋กœ ๋†’์€ ์‚ฌ๋ง์›์ธ์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ณด๊ฑด๊ธฐ๊ตฌ (The World Health Organization)์—์„œ๋Š” ์Œ์ฃผ, ํก์—ฐ, ๋น„๋งŒ, ์‹ ์ฒด ํ™œ๋™, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์‹์Šต๊ด€์„ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜์˜ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์š”์ธ์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์ •ํ•œ ๋ฐ” ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์งˆํ™˜ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ, ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ๋ชฉ์ ์€ 1) ํ•œ๊ตญ์—์„œ์˜ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜๊ณผ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์˜ ์œ ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์„ ์ถ”์ •ํ•˜๊ณ ; 2) ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€์กฑ๋ ฅ๊ณผ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ , 3)๋Œ€์‚ฌ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์‚ฌ๋ง์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ƒํ™œ์Šต๊ด€ ์š”์ธ ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ ; 4) ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€ ๋ณ€ํ™”์™€ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ด€์„ฑ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•˜๊ณ ; 5) ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ํ•™์Šต์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์—ฐ๋ น ๋ฐ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•: ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ํ•œ๊ตญ์ธ์œ ์ „์ฒด์—ญํ•™์กฐ์‚ฌ์‚ฌ์—… (KoGES)์˜ ๋„์‹œ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ (Health examinee-Gem Study, HEXA), ๋†์ดŒ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ (Cardiovascular disease association study, CAVAS), ์ง€์—ญ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ (Ansan and Ansung Study, 2001-2014)๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตญ๋ฏผ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์˜์–‘์กฐ์‚ฌ (US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, NHANES 2003-2014), ํ•œ๊ตญ๊ตญ๋ฏผ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์˜์–‘์กฐ์‚ฌ (Korea NHANES, KNHANES 2007-2014), ์•„์‹œ์•„ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ (Asia Cohort Consortium)๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ํ†ต๊ณ„๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ๋Š”, ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ณด๊ฑด๊ธฐ๊ตฌ์˜ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ‘œ์ค€์ธ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ์ง์ ‘ ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜์˜ ์—ฐ๋ นํ‘œ์ค€ํ™” ์œ ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์„ ์‚ฐ์ถœํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž์˜ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ํŠน์„ฑ์€ ์—ฐ์†ํ˜• ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ Studentโ€™s t-test, ๋ฒ”์ฃผํ˜• ๋ณ€์ˆ˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ Chi-squared test๋ฅผ ์‹œํ–‰ํ•˜์—ฌ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ฝ•์Šค ๋น„๋ก€ ์œ„ํ—˜ ํšŒ๊ท€ ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ๋กœ์ง€์Šคํ‹ฑ ํšŒ๊ท€ ๋ถ„์„์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜์—ฌ hazard ratios (HRs), odds ratio (ORs), 95% confidence interval์„ ์ถ”์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์œ„ํ—˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, training set (์ „์ฒด ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž์˜ 70%)์—์„œ ์ฝ•์Šค ๋น„๋ก€ ํšŒ๊ท€ ๋ถ„์„, random survival forest ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๊ณ , test set (์ „์ฒด ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž์˜ 30%)์—์„œ concordance index (c-index)๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•ด ๊ฐ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์„ฑ๋Šฅ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์—ฐ๋ น ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, 10-fold validation์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•œ elastic net ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ: ํ•œ๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜๊ณผ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์„ ๋น„๊ตํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ํ•œ๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์˜ ์œ ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์ด ๋‚ฎ์•˜๋‹ค. ํ•œ๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํ”ํ•œ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์งˆํ™˜ ์กฐํ•ฉ์€ ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์••๊ณผ ๋น„๋งŒ์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ธ๊ตฌ ์ค‘ ๋†์ดŒ ์ง€์—ญ์— ๊ฑฐ์ฃผํ•˜๋Š” ์ธ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋„์‹œ ์ง€์—ญ์— ๊ฑฐ์ฃผํ•˜๋Š” ์ธ๊ตฌ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜ ์œ ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์ด ๋” ๋†’์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜, ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ ๊ฐ€์กฑ๋ ฅ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹ฌ๊ทผ๊ฒฝ์ƒ‰๊ณผ ๋‡Œ์กธ์ค‘์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค. ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์••, ๋‹น๋‡จ๋ณ‘, ๊ณ ์ง€ํ˜ˆ์ฆ์ด ์žˆ๊ณ , ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€์กฑ๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž๋Š” ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ ๊ฐ€์กฑ๋ ฅ๊ณผ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์ด ์—†๋Š” ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์œ ์˜ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ (HR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.96-4.24), ์‹ฌ๊ทผ๊ฒฝ์ƒ‰ (HR 3.30, 95% CI: 2.06-5.29), ๋‡Œ์กธ์ค‘ (HR 2.52, 95% CI: 1.33-4.79) ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ–ˆ๋‹ค ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์งˆํ™˜ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž์—์„œ ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€ ์š”์ธ์ด ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ ๊ด€๋ จ ์‚ฌ๋ง์— ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š”, โ€˜๋น„ํก์—ฐโ€™, โ€˜๊ธˆ์ฃผโ€™, โ€˜์ฒด์งˆ๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์ˆ˜ 18.5โ€“27.4kg/m2โ€™๋ฅผ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ƒํƒœ๋กœ ์ •์˜ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€ ์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์ถœํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€ ์š”์ธ ์ค‘ ๊ธˆ์—ฐ์€ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ ์‚ฌ๋ง ์œ„ํ—˜ ๊ฐ์†Œ์™€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ด€์„ฑ์„ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์••, ๋‹น๋‡จ๋ณ‘, ๊ด€์ƒ๋™๋งฅ์งˆํ™˜์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€ ์ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ 1์”ฉ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•  ๋•Œ๋งˆ๋‹ค ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์‚ฌ๋ง์œ„ํ—˜์ด 24% (HR 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63-0.93)์”ฉ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 2๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์งˆํ™˜์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Œ€์ƒ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€ ์š”์ธ์€ 3๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ ์‚ฌ๋ง (HR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.42-0.61)๊ณผ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์กฐ๊ธฐ ์‚ฌ๋ง์œ„ํ—˜(HR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.27-0.54)์˜ ๊ฐ์†Œ์— ์œ ์˜ํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€์—ญ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•œ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต ์ธก์ •๋œ ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€ ์š”์ธ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š”, ํ•˜๋ฃจ ํก์—ฐ ๊ฐœํ”ผ์ˆ˜์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.09-2.03), ์Œ์ฃผ๋Ÿ‰์˜ light/moderate์—์„œ heavy๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋Š” (HR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.10-1.84) ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ์˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์œ„ํ—˜์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ์œ ์˜ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ด€์„ฑ์„ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค. ์ƒˆ๋กญ๊ฒŒ ๋น„๋งŒ ๋œ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž๋Š” ๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ์ ์ • ์ฒด์ค‘์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์„ฑ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ (HR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.44-2.45)์˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์œ„ํ—˜์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ์œ ์˜ํ•œ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ •๋ฐ€ํ•œ ๊ฐœ์ธ ๋งž์ถค ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ƒํƒœ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ฐ ๊ฐœ์„ ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ํ•™์Šต ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจํ˜•์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๊ณผ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ์„œ์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์—ฐ๋ น์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์‹ค์ œ ์—ฐ๋ น์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ Š์€ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์—ฐ๋ น์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๋‹น๋‡จ๋ณ‘ (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.55โ€“0.72), ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์•• (HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.68โ€“0.81), ๋‹น๋‡จ๋ณ‘๊ณผ ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์•• ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜ (HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.47โ€“0.91) ์œ„ํ—˜๋„๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ํ•™์Šต๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจํ˜• ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ํ•™์Šต ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์••๊ณผ ๋‹น๋‡จ๋ณ‘ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜ ๋ชจํ˜•์€ ๋†’์€ ํ†ต๊ณ„์  ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋ ฅ์„ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ฒฐ๋ก : ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ํ•œ๊ตญ ์ธ๊ตฌ์ง‘๋‹จ์—์„œ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ๋ฐ ์‚ฌ๋ง์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์ค„์ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ•„์š”์„ฑ์„ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž ์ค‘ ํŠนํžˆ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜ ๊ฐ€์กฑ๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์— ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜์˜ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์งˆํ™˜ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž๋ผ๋„, ๊ธˆ์—ฐ, ๊ธˆ์ฃผ, ํ‘œ์ค€ ์ฒด์งˆ๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์ˆ˜ ์œ ์ง€์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€์€ ์‹ฌํ˜ˆ๊ด€๊ณ„ ์งˆํ™˜์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋ง๊ณผ ์กฐ๊ธฐ ์‚ฌ๋ง ์œ„ํ—˜ ๊ฐ์†Œ์™€ ์—ฐ๊ด€์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์ƒํ™œ์Šต๊ด€์œผ๋กœ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋„์›€์ด ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์š”์ธ๋“ค์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ํ•™์Šต์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ตฌ์ถ•๋œ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจํ˜•๊ณผ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์—ฐ๋ น์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋‚˜๋ผ์—์„œ์˜ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์งˆํ™˜ ๋™์‹œ ์ดํ™˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณ ์œ„ํ—˜๊ตฐ์„ ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ฏธ๋ฆฌ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ, ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์ฆ์ง„์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์„ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ๋„๊ตฌ๋กœ ํ™œ์šฉ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋œ๋‹ค.Introduction: The growing aging population and westernized lifestyle have increased the prevalence of disease comorbidity, which is defined as having more than two metabolic diseases including hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM), dyslipidemia (LIP), obesity, and metabolic syndrome (MetS). The combination of these diseases is related to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study reported that CVD are by far the leading cause of death globally and one of the major health challenges of the 21st century. In Korea, CVD is the second largest cause of death following cancer. As those diseases share risk factors, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated healthy lifestyle, including alcohol reduction, weight loss, smoking cessation, physical activity, and healthy diet, as modifiable factors of CVDs. Thus, it is necessary to estimate the amount of comorbidity prevalence, identify the combined association of metabolic comorbidity and other risk factors (family history of CVD and lifestyle factors) with CVD outcomes, and develop predictive model for comorbidity for detecting the high-risk of metabolic comorbidity and preventing the future risk of CVD through intervention strategies. Methods: This study mainly used population-based cohort study from the Korea Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) including Health Examinee-Gem study (HEXA), cardiovascular disease association study (CAVAS), and Ansan and Ansung Study from 2001-2014, in addition to United States (US) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2014 (NHANES), Korea NHANES (KNHAENS) 2007-2014, and Asia Cohort Consortium (ACC) study. For the statistical analyses, direct standardization methods using the WHO world standard population was performed to estimate the age-standardized prevalence of metabolic diseases. The baseline characteristics were compared using Chi-squared test for categorical variables and Studentโ€™s t-test for continuous variables. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CVD outcomes. To calculate the odds ratios (ORs) of metabolic diseases, logistic regression models were used. For prediction model, cox proportional hazard regression, and random survival forest (RSF) models were developed in the training set (70% of the total population) and performance evaluations of each model were performed in the test set (30% of the total population) with concordance statistics (c-index). For self-assessed biological age (BA) prediction model, elastic net regression analysis with 10-fold cross validation was performed. Results: According to the comparison of the prevalence of metabolic disease and comorbidity in Korea and the US, Korea had a lower prevalence of metabolic comorbidity than the US. In both Korean and the US population, the most common combination was HTN and obesity. Among the Korean population, individuals living in rural areas had the higher comorbidity prevalence than those who lived in urban areas. In the association between metabolic comorbidity, family history of CVD, and the risk of CVD study, we found that individuals with DM, HTN, LIP, and a positive family history of CVD had a 2.88-fold increased risk of CVD, a 3.30-fold increased risk of MI, and a 2.52-fold increased risk of stroke compared to the individuals with a negative family history of CVD and none of metabolic diseases. In the impact of lifestyle factors with cardiometabolic disease (CMDs) such as HTN, DM, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke on CVD death study, the healthy lifestyle status was defined as โ€˜never smokerโ€™, โ€˜never drinkerโ€™, and โ€˜body mass index (BMI) 18.5โ€“27.4kg/m2โ€™in Asian population. Among the lifestyle factors, non-smoking had the strongest association with decreasing risk of all cause and CVD death among the healthy lifestyle factors. A significant association of healthy lifestyle score with lower CVD death was observed among individuals with HTN, DM, and CHD (HR 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63-0.93). For individuals with cardiometabolic comorbidity, having three of healthy lifestyle factors was significantly associated with decrease in CVD (HR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.42-0.61) and premature CVD death (HR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.27-0.54). Based on the repeated measurements for assessing change in lifestyle factors study, unhealthy lifestyle modification including increased dose of cigarette smoking (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.09-2.03) and increased their intensity of consumption from light/moderate to heavy had a significantly increased risk for MetS (HR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.10-1.84). For obesity, individuals who newly became obesity had a significant increase in risk for MetS (HR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.44-2.45). For improving the individualized health status, we developed machine learning-based disease prediction model and self-assessed BA as a predictor for metabolic comorbidity. We found that compared to the individuals in same BA as chronological age (CA) group, those in younger BA than CA group were associated with a decreased risk of DM (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.55โ€“0.72), HTN (HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.68โ€“0.81), and combination of HTN and DM (HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.47โ€“0.91). For machine learning-based disease prediction model study, predictive models achieved a high discriminatory ability for comorbidity of HTN and DM. Conclusions: This study highlights the necessity of accounting to metabolic comorbidity to reduce the future risk of CVD outcomes in Korean population. Although individuals already have had cardiometabolic comorbidity, healthy lifestyles (smoking cessation, abstaining from alcohol, and maintaining BMI) are effective to reduce the further risk of CVD death. Moreover, lifestyle changes help to decrease the risk of a cluster of metabolic conditions. At last, machine learning-based self-assessed BA and disease prediction model may be an effective indicator for identifying the high-risk group and decreasing burden of metabolic comorbidities in Korea through prevention.I. Introduction 1 1.1. Background 1 1.2. Objectives 9 1.3. Hypothesis 11 II. Materials and methods 14 2.1. Data source 14 2.2. Study population 16 2.3. Key variables 24 2.4. Statistical analysis 32 III. Results 39 3.1. Prevalence study 39 3.2. Family history of CVD and the risk of CVD study 49 3.3. Lifestyle factors, and the risk of CVD death study 59 3.4. Change in lifestyle factors study 71 3.5. Biological age study 84 3.6. Prediction model study 93 IV. Discussions 105 4.1. Key findings 105 4.2. Comparison to previous studies 108 4.3. Strengths and limitations 117 V. Conclusion 122 References 123 Appendix 145 Abstract in Korean 181 Acknowledgment 185๋ฐ•
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