The effects of climate change and variation in New Zealand: An assessment using the CLIMPACTS system

Along with a need to better understand the climate and biophysical systems of New Zealand, the need to develop an improved capacity for evaluating possible changes in climate and their effects on the New Zealand environment has been recognised. Since the middle of 1993 the CLIMPACTS programme, has been focused on the development of such a capacity, in the first instance for the agricultural sector. the goals of this present assessment are: 1. To present current knowledge on likely scenarios of climate change and associated uncertainties in New Zealand; 2. To present current knowledge, based on quantitative analyses using a consistent set of scenarios, on the likely effects of climate change on a range of agricultural and horticultural crops of economic importance; 3. To demonstrate, by way of this report and the associated technical report, the capacity that has been developed for ongoing assessments of this kind in New Zealand. This report has been prepared for both the science and policy communities in New Zealand. There are two main components: 1. The detailed findings of the assessment, presented in a series of chapters; 2. An annex, which contains technical details on models used in the assessment

Capacity-building activities related to climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment and economic valuation for Fiji

The Terms of Reference for this work specified three objectives to the Fiji component: Objective 1a: to provide a prototype FIJICLIM model (covered under PICCAP funding) Objective 1b: to provide training and transfer of FIJICLIM Objective 1c: to present and evaluate World Bank study findings and to identify future directions for development and use of FIJICLIM (2-day workshop) Proceedings of the training course and workshop were prepared by the Fiji Department of Environment. The summaries from these proceedings reflect a very high degree of success with the contracted activities

The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia.

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas-driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region's forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests

Tools for Assessing Climate Impacts on Fish and Wildlife

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how climate-impacts modeling can be used to address management concerns, providing examples of model-based assessments of climate impacts on salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest, fire regimes in the boreal region of Canada, prairies and savannas in the Willamette Valley-Puget Sound Trough-Georgia Basin ecoregion, and marten Martes americana populations in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. We also highlight some key limitations of these models and discuss how such limitations should be managed. We conclude with a general discussion of how these models can be integrated into fish and wildlife management

Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions

Large-Scale Modelling of Global Food Security and Adaptation under Crop Yield Uncertainty

Concerns about future food security in the face of volatile and potentially lower yields due to climate change have been at the heart of recent discussions on adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. While there are a variety of studies trying to quantify the impact of climate change on yields, some of that literature also acknowledges the fact that these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty. The question arises how such uncertainty will affect decision-making if ensuring food security is an explicit objective. Also, it will be important to establish, which options for adaptation are most promising in the face of volatile yields. The analysis is carried out using a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) model, which is a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium bottom-up model integrating the agricultural, bio-energy and forestry sectors with the aim to give policy advice on global issues concerning land use competition between the major land-based production sectors. The source of stochasticity is the interannual crop yield variability, making it more risky to rely on average yields and thus requiring stochastic optimization techniques. The results indicate that food security requires overproduction to meet minimum food supply constraints also in scenarios of negative yield shocks, where the additional land needed is sourced from forests and other natural land. Trade liberalization and enhanced irrigation both appear to be promising food supply stabilization, and hence land saving, mechanisms in the face of missing storage.food security, food price volatility, optimization under uncertainty, adaptation, land use change, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty,

Optimizing the bioenergy water footprint by selecting SRC willow canopy phenotypes: regional scenario simulations

© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background and Aims: Bioenergy is central for the future energy mix to mitigate climate change impacts; however, its intricate link with the water cycle calls for an evaluation of the carbon–water nexus in biomass production. The great challenge is to optimize trade-offs between carbon harvest and water use by choosing cultivars that combine low water use with high productivity. Methods: Regional scenarios were simulated over a range of willow genotype × environment interactions for the major UK soil × climate variations with the process-based model LUCASS. Soil available water capacity (SAWC) ranged from 51 to 251 mm and weather represented the north-west (wet, cool), north-east (dry, cool), south-west (wet, warm) and south-east (dry, warm) of the UK. Scenario simulations were evaluated for small/open narrow-leaf (NL) versus large/closed broad-leaf (BL) willow canopy phenotypes using baseline (1965–89) and warmer recent (1990–2014) weather data. Key Results: The low productivity under baseline climate in the north could be compensated by choosing BL cultivars (e.g. ‘Endurance’). Recent warmer climate increased average productivity by 0.5–2.5 t ha−1, especially in the north. The modern NL cultivar ‘Resolution’ had the smallest and most efficient water use. On marginal soils (SAWC <100 mm), yields remained below an economic threshold of 9 t ha−1 more frequently under baseline than recent climate. In the drought-prone south-east, ‘Endurance’ yielded less than ‘Resolution’, which consumed on average 17 mm year−1 less water. Assuming a planting area of 10 000 ha, in droughty years between 1.3 and 4.5 × 106 m3 of water could be saved, with a small yield penalty, for ‘Resolution’. Conclusions: With an increase in air temperature and occasional water scarcities expected with climate change, high-yielding NL cultivars should be the preferred choice for sustainable use of marginal lands and reduced competition with agricultural food crops.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio