Agricultural Import Demand in Low-Income, Middle-Income, and Centrally Planned Economies

This report provides summaries of the papers and discussions at the third Consortium on Trade Research held in Washington, D.C., June 23-24, 1981. The cochairmen of the consortium were T. Kelley White, Economic Research Service (ERS), George E. Rossmiller, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), and Vernon Sorenson, Michigan State University. The Consortium focused on world demand for agricultural imports and the policies and conditions in low-income, middle-income, and centrally planned countries that influence import demand. An overview paper by Dewain Rahe and Cheryl Christensen assessed future global prospects for agricultural trade. Peter Timmer's paper investigated conceptual and empirical problems in analyzing import demand. Three of the papers discussed the demand for food and agricultural products in the Soviet Union and China. Three additional papers focused on factors affecting import demand in low- and middle-income countries. A final set of papers examined the role of bilateral agreements and stockholding policies in agricultural trade.Trade, import demand, projections, state trading, food reserves, stockholding, bilateral agreements, low-income countries, middle-income countries, centrally planned countries, International Relations/Trade,

An Illustrated Guide to Research Findings from USDA's Economic Research Service

This book contains a sampling of recent ERS research illustrating the breadth of the Agency’s research on current policy issues: from biofuels to food consumption to land conservation to patterns of trade for agricultural products. What you won’t find in this collection is any mention of economists’ favorite analytic tools (regression analyses, for example, and coefficients of variation). We wanted this guide to highlight results, not process. Even so, the findings on display here are all based on rigorous and robust application of such tools as well as use of the latest econometric techniques.Farm Policy, Risk Management, Food Consumption, Food Nutrition Assistance, Conservation Policy, Food Assistance and Nutrition Programs, Food Security, Agricultural Productivity in the U.S., Farm Structure, Rural Population, Environmental Interactions, Invasive Species Management, Bioenergy, Global Food Markets, NAFTA, Organic Agriculture, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty,

The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest

This paper examines the short- and long-run daily relationships for a grain-energy nexus that includes the prices of corn, crude oil, ethanol, gasoline, soybeans, and sugar, and their open interest. The empirical results demonstrate the presence of these relationships in this nexus, and underscore the importance of ethanol and soybeans in all these relationships. In particular, ethanol and be considered as a catalyst in this nexus because of its significance as a loading factor, a long-run error corrector and a short-run adjuster. Ethanol leads all commodities in the price discovery process in the long run. The negative cross-price open interest effects suggest that there is a money outflow from all commodities in response to increases in open interest positions in the corn futures markets, indicating that active arbitrage activity takes place in those markets. On the other hand, an increase in the soybean open interest contributes to fund inflows in the corn futures market and the other futures markets, leading to more speculative activities in these markets. In connection with open interest, the ethanol market fails because of its thin market. Finally, it is interesting to note that the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating relationship), speeds of adjustment and open interest across markets have strengthened significantly during the 2009-2011 economic recovery period, compared with the full and 2007-2009 Great Recession periods.Energy-grain price nexus; open interest; futures prices; ethanol; crude oil; gasoline; corn; soybean; sugar; arbitrage; speculation

The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest

This paper examines the short- and long-run daily relationships for a grain-energy nexus that includes the prices of corn, crude oil, ethanol, gasoline, soybeans, and sugar, and their open interest. The empirical results demonstrate the presence of these relationships in this nexus, and underscore the importance of ethanol and soybeans in all these relationships. In particular, ethanol and be considered as a catalyst in this nexus because of its significance as a loading factor, a long-run error corrector and a short-run adjuster. Ethanol leads all commodities in the price discovery process in the long run. The negative cross-price open interest effects suggest that there is a money outflow from all commodities in response to increases in open interest positions in the corn futures markets, indicating that active arbitrage activity takes place in those markets. On the other hand, an increase in the soybean open interest contributes to fund inflows in the corn futures market and the other futures markets, leading to more speculative activities in these markets. In connection with open interest, the ethanol market fails because of its thin market. Finally, it is interesting to note that the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating relationship), speeds of adjustment and open interest across markets have strengthened significantly during the 2009-2011 economic recovery period, compared with the full and 2007-2009 Great Recession periods.

The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest

This paper examines the short- and long-run daily relationships for a grain-energy nexus that includes the prices of corn, crude oil, ethanol, gasoline, soybeans, and sugar, and their open interest. The empirical results demonstrate the presence of these relationships in this nexus, and underscore the importance of ethanol and soybeans in all these relationships. In particular, ethanol and be considered as a catalyst in this nexus because of its significance as a loading factor, a long-run error corrector and a short-run adjuster. Ethanol leads all commodities in the price discovery process in the long run. The negative cross-price open interest effects suggest that there is a money outflow from all commodities in response to increases in open interest positions in the corn futures markets, indicating that active arbitrage activity takes place in those markets. On the other hand, an increase in the soybean open interest contributes to fund inflows in the corn futures market and the other futures markets, leading to more speculative activities in these markets. In connection with open interest, the ethanol market fails because of its thin market. Finally, it is interesting to note that the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating relationship), speeds of adjustment and open interest across markets have strengthened significantly during the 2009-2011 economic recovery period, compared with the full and 2007-2009 Great Recession periods.Energy-grain price nexus, open interest, futures prices, ethanol, crude oil, gasoline, corn, soybean, sugar, arbitrage, speculation.

An Analysis of Rice Import Demand in Selected Asian Economies.

The primary purpose of this study was to analyze the rice import demand behavior in seven Asian countries namely, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Three rice import demand models were estimated, the direct demand model which treats imports as a function of border prices and income, the residual import demand model where the imports are the excess of consumption over domestic production, and the reduced form model which incorporates both domestic demand and supply variables. Import demand functions were estimated by the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) was used in the estimation of the residual model hypothesizing that government policies contemporaneously influence both supply and demand. Structural stability tests were performed on all equations assuming that a structural break may have occurred in the early 1970s. The same standard model specifications were used for all countries in order to make inter-country comparisons possible. The data for the analysis were mainly from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines and selected publications of the World Bank. The effects of government policy on rice import demand were explicitly incorporated into the models by including subsidized input-output price ratios and a technology index. The results indicated evidence of structural changes in demand and supply variables for all the countries analyzed. Instabilities were pronounced in the supply variables such as the input-output price ratio and the technology index indicating effects of government policy incentives to domestic production. Further, structural changes were observed in income, wheat prices and foreign exchange reserves. Out of the three models the reduced form model performed best in terms of forecasting efficiency. The residual import demand model estimates were the least efficient; however in this model SUR estimates were only marginally better than the OLS estimates. As Asian rice importers reach near self-sufficiency a shift away from input-output subsidies was noticeable but technology incentives continued unabated inducing shifts in the supply curve

China's Embrace of Globalization

As China has become an increasingly important part of the global trading system over the past two decades, interest in the country and its international economic policies has increased among international economists who are not China specialists. This paper represents an attempt to provide the international economics community with a succinct summary of the major steps in the evolution of Chinese policy toward international trade and foreign direct investment and their consequences since the late 1970s. In doing so, we draw upon and update a number of more comprehensive book-length treatments of the subject. It is our hope that this paper will prove to be a useful resource for the growing numbers of international economists who are exploring China-related issues, either in the classroom or in their own research.

Vertical Integration in the Taiwan Aquaculture Industry

The study aims to improve the distribution channels in the Taiwan aquaculture industry through a better vertical integration. This study is derived from a need to improve the distribution performance of agricultural-based industries in response to increasing food demands in Asia and elsewhere. Based on a four-by-eight matrix derived from both a value chain and a service profit chain, thirty different strategies are developed. This development is based on key success factors and strategies for vertical integration interviewed and cited in the literatures. The findings are identified by applying the Gray Relational Analysis (GRA). For this study, the key success factors for aquaculture wholesale markets include the communication, integration and cohesion of opinion within the wholesale market; government support; andmutual trust between members of the vertical integration scheme. The suitable vertical integration strategies are an improved safety and hygiene inspection of aquaculture products, accuracy of aquaculture product categorization, and precision in product weighing.aquaculture industry, grey relational analysis (GRA), channels integration