Developing an individualized survival prediction model for colon cancer

In this work a 5-year survival prediction model was developed for colon cancer using machine learning methods. The model was based on the SEER dataset which, after preprocessing, consisted of 38,592 records of colon cancer patients. Survival prediction models for colon cancer are not widely and easily available. Results showed that the performance of the model using fewer features is close to that of the model using a larger set of features recommended by an expert physician, which indicates that the first may be a good compromise between usability and performance. The purpose of such a model is to be used in Ambient Assisted Living applications, providing decision support to health care professionals.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Developing an individualized survival prediction model for rectal cancer

This work presents a survivability prediction model for rectal cancer patients developed through machine learning techniques. The model was based on the most complete worldwide cancer dataset known, the SEER dataset. After preprocessing, the training data consisted of 12,818 records of rectal cancer patients. Six features were extracted from a feature selection process, finding the most relevant characteristics which affect the survivability of rectal cancer. The model constructed with six features was compared with another one with 18 features indicated by a physician. The results show that the performance of the six-feature model is close to that of the model using 18 features, which indicates that the first may be a good compromise between usability and performance.FCT - Fuel Cell Technologies Program (SFRH/BD/85291/2012)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A mobile and evolving tool to predict colorectal cancer survivability

In this work, a tool for the survivability prediction of patients with colon or rectal cancer, up to five years after diagnosis and treatment, is presented. Indeed, an accurate survivability prediction is a difficult task for health care professionals and of high concern to patients, so that they can make the most of the rest of their lives. The distinguishing features of the tool include a balance between the number of necessary inputs and prediction performance, being mobile-friendly, and featuring an online learning component that enables the automatic evolution of the prediction models upon the addition of new cases.This work has been supported by FCT - Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia within the Project Scope UID/CEC/00319/2013. The work of Tiago Oliveira is supported by a FCT grant with the reference SFRH/BD/85291/2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Method for evaluating prediction models that apply the results of randomized trials to individual patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>The clinical significance of a treatment effect demonstrated in a randomized trial is typically assessed by reference to differences in event rates at the group level. An alternative is to make individualized predictions for each patient based on a prediction model. This approach is growing in popularity, particularly for cancer. Despite its intuitive advantages, it remains plausible that some prediction models may do more harm than good. Here we present a novel method for determining whether predictions from a model should be used to apply the results of a randomized trial to individual patients, as opposed to using group level results.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose applying the prediction model to a data set from a randomized trial and examining the results of patients for whom the treatment arm recommended by a prediction model is congruent with allocation. These results are compared with the strategy of treating all patients through use of a net benefit function that incorporates both the number of patients treated and the outcome. We examined models developed using data sets regarding adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancer and Dutasteride for benign prostatic hypertrophy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For adjuvant chemotherapy, we found that patients who would opt for chemotherapy even for small risk reductions, and, conversely, those who would require a very large risk reduction, would on average be harmed by using a prediction model; those with intermediate preferences would on average benefit by allowing such information to help their decision making. Use of prediction could, at worst, lead to the equivalent of an additional death or recurrence per 143 patients; at best it could lead to the equivalent of a reduction in the number of treatments of 25% without an increase in event rates. In the Dutasteride case, where the average benefit of treatment is more modest, there is a small benefit of prediction modelling, equivalent to a reduction of one event for every 100 patients given an individualized prediction.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The size of the benefit associated with appropriate clinical implementation of a good prediction model is sufficient to warrant development of further models. However, care is advised in the implementation of prediction modelling, especially for patients who would opt for treatment even if it was of relatively little benefit.</p

A prediction model for colon cancer surveillance data

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112258/1/sim6500-sup-0001-Supplementary1.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112258/2/sim6500.pd

Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers

Aim: To develop prognostic nomograms for predicting outcomes in patients with locally advanced rectal cancers who do not receive preoperative treatment. Materials and Methods: A total of 883 patients with stage II-III rectal cancers were retrospectively collected from a single institution. Survival analyses were performed to assess each variable for overall survival (OS), local recurrence (LR) and distant metastases (DM). Cox models were performed to develop a predictive model for each endpoint. The performance of model prediction was validated by cross validation and on an independent group of patients. Results: The 5-year LR, DM and OS rates were 22.3%, 32.7% and 63.8%, respectively. Two prognostic nomograms were successfully developed to predict 5-year OS and DM-free survival rates, with c-index of 0.70 (95% CI = [0.66, 0.73]) and 0.68 (95% CI = [0.64, 0.72]) on the original dataset, and 0.76 (95% CI = [0.67, 0.86]) and 0.73 (95% CI = [0.63, 0.83]) on the validation dataset, respectively. Factors in our models included age, gender, carcinoembryonic antigen value, tumor location, T stage, N stage, metastatic lymph nodes ratio, adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy. Predicted by our nomogram, substantial variability in terms of 5-year OS and DM-free survival was observed within each TNM stage category. Conclusions: The prognostic nomograms integrated demographic and clinicopathological factors to account for tumor and patient heterogeneity, and thereby provided a more individualized outcome prognostication. Our individualized prediction nomograms could help patients with preoperatively under-staged rectal cancer about their postoperative treatment strategies and follow-up protocols. © 2014 Peng et al

Treating colon cancer survivability prediction as a classification problem

This work presents a survivability prediction model for colon cancer developed with machine learning techniques. Survivability was viewed as a classification task where it was necessary to determine if a patient would survive each of the five years following treatment. The model was based on the SEER dataset which, after preprocessing, consisted of 38,592 records of colon cancer patients. Six features were extracted from a feature selection process in order to construct the model. This model was compared with another one with 18 features indicated by a physician. The results show that the performance of the sixfeature model is close to that of the model using 18 features, which indicates that the first may be a good compromise between usability and performance.This work has been supported by COMPETE: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043 and FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope UID/CEC/00319/2013. The work of Tiago Oliveira is supported by a FCT grant with the reference SFRH/BD/85291/ 2012.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The surprising implications of familial association in disease risk

Background: A wide range of diseases show some degree of clustering in families; family history is therefore an important aspect for clinicians when making risk predictions. Familial aggregation is often quantified in terms of a familial relative risk (FRR), and although at first glance this measure may seem simple and intuitive as an average risk prediction, its implications are not straightforward. Methods: We use two statistical models for the distribution of disease risk in a population: a dichotomous risk model that gives an intuitive understanding of the implication of a given FRR, and a continuous risk model that facilitates a more detailed computation of the inequalities in disease risk. Published estimates of FRRs are used to produce Lorenz curves and Gini indices that quantifies the inequalities in risk for a range of diseases. Results: We demonstrate that even a moderate familial association in disease risk implies a very large difference in risk between individuals in the population. We give examples of diseases for which this is likely to be true, and we further demonstrate the relationship between the point estimates of FRRs and the distribution of risk in the population. Conclusions: The variation in risk for several severe diseases may be larger than the variation in income in many countries. The implications of familial risk estimates should be recognized by epidemiologists and clinicians.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure

Translational Oncogenomics and Human Cancer Interactome Networks

An overview of translational, human oncogenomics, transcriptomics and cancer interactomic networks is presented together with basic concepts and potential, new applications to Oncology and Integrative Cancer Biology. Novel translational oncogenomics research is rapidly expanding through the application of advanced technology, research findings and computational tools/models to both pharmaceutical and clinical problems. A self-contained presentation is adopted that covers both fundamental concepts and the most recent biomedical, as well as clinical, applications. Sample analyses in recent clinical studies have shown that gene expression data can be employed to distinguish between tumor types as well as to predict outcomes. Potentially important applications of such results are individualized human cancer therapies or, in general, &#x2018;personalized medicine&#x2019;. Several cancer detection techniques are currently under development both in the direction of improved detection sensitivity and increased time resolution of cellular events, with the limits of single molecule detection and picosecond time resolution already reached. The urgency for the complete mapping of a human cancer interactome with the help of such novel, high-efficiency / low-cost and ultra-sensitive techniques is also pointed out

Survival Prediction from Imbalance colorectal cancer dataset using hybrid sampling methods and tree-based classifiers

Background and Objective: Colorectal cancer is a high mortality cancer. Clinical data analysis plays a crucial role in predicting the survival of colorectal cancer patients, enabling clinicians to make informed treatment decisions. However, utilizing clinical data can be challenging, especially when dealing with imbalanced outcomes. This paper focuses on developing algorithms to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival of colorectal cancer patients using clinical datasets, with particular emphasis on the highly imbalanced 1-year survival prediction task. To address this issue, we propose a method that creates a pipeline of some of standard balancing techniques to increase the true positive rate. Evaluation is conducted on a colorectal cancer dataset from the SEER database. Methods: The pre-processing step consists of removing records with missing values and merging categories. The minority class of 1-year and 3-year survival tasks consists of 10% and 20% of the data, respectively. Edited Nearest Neighbor, Repeated edited nearest neighbor (RENN), Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Techniques (SMOTE), and pipelines of SMOTE and RENN approaches were used and compared for balancing the data with tree-based classifiers. Decision Trees, Random Forest, Extra Tree, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and Light Gradient Boosting (LGBM) are used in this article. Method. Results: The performance evaluation utilizes a 5-fold cross-validation approach. In the case of highly imbalanced datasets (1-year), our proposed method with LGBM outperforms other sampling methods with the sensitivity of 72.30%. For the task of imbalance (3-year survival), the combination of RENN and LGBM achieves a sensitivity of 80.81%, indicating that our proposed method works best for highly imbalanced datasets. Conclusions: Our proposed method significantly improves mortality prediction for the minority class of colorectal cancer patients.Comment: 19 Pages, 6 Figures, 4 Table