Developing a Mathematical Model for Scheduling and Determining Success Probability of Research Projects Considering Complex-Fuzzy Networks

In project management context, time management is one of the most important factors affecting project success. This paper proposes a new method to solve research project scheduling problems (RPSP) containing Fuzzy Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (FGERT) networks. Through the deliverables of this method, a proper estimation of project completion time (PCT) and success probability can be achieved. So algorithms were developed to cover all features of the problem based on three main parameters “duration, occurrence probability, and success probability.” These developed algorithms were known as PR-FGERT (Parallel and Reversible-Fuzzy GERT networks). The main provided framework includes simplifying the network of project and taking regular steps to determine PCT and success probability. Simplifications include (1) equivalent making of parallel and series branches in fuzzy network considering the concepts of probabilistic nodes, (2) equivalent making of delay or reversible-to-itself branches and impact of changing the parameters of time and probability based on removing related branches, (3) equivalent making of simple and complex loops, and (4) an algorithm that was provided to resolve no-loop fuzzy network, after equivalent making. Finally, the performance of models was compared with existing methods. The results showed proper and real performance of models in comparison with existing methods

Intelligent systems in manufacturing: current developments and future prospects

Global competition and rapidly changing customer requirements are demanding increasing changes in manufacturing environments. Enterprises are required to constantly redesign their products and continuously reconfigure their manufacturing systems. Traditional approaches to manufacturing systems do not fully satisfy this new situation. Many authors have proposed that artificial intelligence will bring the flexibility and efficiency needed by manufacturing systems. This paper is a review of artificial intelligence techniques used in manufacturing systems. The paper first defines the components of a simplified intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS), the different Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to be considered and then shows how these AI techniques are used for the components of IMS

Multiobjective strategies for New Product Development in the pharmaceutical industry

New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R&D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while coping with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGAII type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. This work is illustrated with a study case involving nine interdependent new product candidates targeting three diseases. An analysis is performed for this test bench on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization: large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bi- and tricriteria optimization strategy. The optimization strategy is thus interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems

Multiobjective strategies for New Product Development in the pharmaceutical industry

New Product Development (NPD) constitutes a challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry, due to the characteristics of the development pipeline. Formally, the NPD problem can be stated as follows: select a set of R&D projects from a pool of candidate projects in order to satisfy several criteria (economic profitability, time to market) while coping with the uncertain nature of the projects. More precisely, the recurrent key issues are to determine the projects to develop once target molecules have been identified, their order and the level of resources to assign. In this context, the proposed approach combines discrete event stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo approach) with multiobjective genetic algorithms (NSGAII type, Non-Sorted Genetic Algorithm II) to optimize the highly combinatorial portfolio management problem. In that context, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are particularly attractive for treating this kind of problem, due to their ability to directly lead to the so-called Pareto front and to account for the combinatorial aspect. This work is illustrated with a study case involving nine interdependent new product candidates targeting three diseases. An analysis is performed for this test bench on the different pairs of criteria both for the bi- and tricriteria optimization: large portfolios cause resource queues and delays time to launch and are eliminated by the bi- and tricriteria optimization strategy. The optimization strategy is thus interesting to detect the sequence candidates. Time is an important criterion to consider simultaneously with NPV and risk criteria. The order in which drugs are released in the pipeline is of great importance as with scheduling problems

Mitigating Space Industry Supply Chain Risk Thru Risk-Based Analysis

Using risk-based analysis to consider supply chain disruptions and uncertainty along with potential mitigation strategies in the early stages of space industry projects can be used avoid schedule delays, cost overruns, and lead to successful project outcomes. Space industry projects, especially launch vehicles, are complicated assemblies of high-technology and specialized components. Components are engineered, procured, manufactured, and assembled for specific missions or projects, unlike make-to-stock manufacturing where assemblies are produced at a mass production rate for customers to choose off the shelf or lot, like automobiles. The supply chain for a space industry project is a large, complicated web where one disruption, especially for sole-sourced components, could ripple through the project causing delays at multiple project milestones. This ripple effect can even cause the delay or cancelation of the entire project unless project managers develop and employ risk mitigations strategies against supply chain disruption and uncertainty. The unpredictability of when delays and disruptions may occur makes managing these projects extremely difficult. By using risk-based analysis, project managers can better plan for and mitigate supply chain risk and uncertainty for space industry projects to better manage project success. Space industry project supply chain risk and uncertainty can be evaluated through risk assessments at major project milestones and during the procurement process. Mitigations for identified risks can be evaluated and implemented to better manage project success. One mitigation strategy to supply chain risk and uncertainty is implementing a dual or multi-supplier sourcing procurement strategy. This research explores using a risk-based analysis to identify where this mitigation strategy can be beneficial for space industry projects and how its implementation affects project success. First a supply chain risk assessment and mitigation decision tool will be used at major project milestones to show where a multi-sourcing strategy may be beneficial. Next, updated supplier quote evaluation tools will confirm the usage of multiple suppliers for procurement. Modeling and simulation are then used to show the impact of that strategy on the project success metrics of cost and schedule

A MULTI-OBJECTIVE MODEL FOR TIME–COST–QUALITY–RISK TRADE-OFF PROBLEMS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

This study presents a weighted four-dimensional time-cost-quality-risk trade-off problem to assist decision-makers in planning the best possible use of resources. The proposed model aims to minimize time and cost while maximizing quality and safety and to ensure that the project is completed as required. The critical path method was used to calculate the completion time, the analytical hierarchy process method was used to determine the weights of the quality parameters, and the 3T risk assessment method was used to calculate the risk values. The algorithm was coded in GAMS and optimized using CPLEX. A construction project with a deadline of 310 days, a budget of 5,250,000 ₺, 88% quality and a safety index (SI) of 77% was selected to analyze the accuracy of the model. The model achieved a solution with a completion time of 310 days, costs amounting to 5,247,775 ₺, 88.036% quality, and 77.338% SI

Time-Cost Tradeoff and Resource-Scheduling Problems in Construction: A State-of-the-Art Review

Duration, cost, and resources are defined as constraints in projects. Consequently, Construction manager needs to balance between theses constraints to ensure that project objectives are met. Choosing the best alternative of each activity is one of the most significant problems in construction management to minimize project duration, project cost and also satisfies resources constraints as well as smoothing resources. Advanced computer technologies could empower construction engineers and project managers to make right, fast and applicable decisions based on accurate data that can be studied, optimized, and quantified with great accuracy. This article strives to find the recent improvements of resource-scheduling problems and time-cost trade off and the interacting between them which can be used in innovating new approaches in construction management. To achieve this goal, a state-of-the-art review, is conducted as a literature sample including articles implying three areas of research; time-cost trade off, constrained resources and unconstrained resources. A content analysis is made to clarify contributions and gaps of knowledge to help suggesting and specifying opportunities for future research

Artificial Intelligence Enabled Project Management: A Systematic Literature Review

In the Industry 5.0 era, companies are leveraging the potential of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence for more efficient and green human-centric production. In a similar approach, project management would benefit from artificial intelligence in order to achieve project goals by improving project performance, and consequently, reaching higher sustainable success. In this context, this paper examines the role of artificial intelligence in emerging project management through a systematic literature review; the applications of AI techniques in the project management performance domains are presented. The results show that the number of influential publications on artificial intelligence-enabled project management has increased significantly over the last decade. The findings indicate that artificial intelligence, predominantly machine learning, can be considerably useful in the management of construction and IT projects; it is notably encouraging for enhancing the planning, measurement, and uncertainty performance domains by providing promising forecasting and decision-making capabilities

Owner time and cost contingency estimation for building construction projects in Egypt

Time and cost overruns are an integral part of the construction projects. Both have several associated negative consequences to the project owners. Setting the right time and cost contingency is a major contributing factor to the success of the project as it should minimize/prevent budget and time overruns. Project managers usually tend to allocate project time and cost contingency subjectively based on their previous experience and may not capture all projects specific factors that impact the contingency estimation. The competency of the project manager plays an important role in this case in determining the contingency percentage. The contingency estimation for a given project can hugely vary from one project manager to another. This research presents a fuzzy logic-based model that allows owners predict the project time and cost contingency reliably and accurately in Egypt. The most important factors affecting time and cost contingency have been identified and are defined as input variables for the model. The effect of these factors on the time and cost contingency, the output variables, have been determined and incorporated into the model via fuzzy rules. On the basis of the known effects of these factors, a fuzzy logic model is developed to automate the prediction process using MS Excel software. Several scenarios of the model are developed and subjected to initial testing using 10 actual projects data. Based on the initial testing, the best model was subjected to tuning in order to achieve the optimum model results in terms of accuracy and validity. Finally, the model is tested by applying it on new five actual construction projects which were not used in the initial testing nor tuning. The model results were found to be acceptable having an average validity percent of 84% and 81% for time and cost contingency, respectively. The proposed model allows the owners to [1] understand the effect of the project different factors on the contingency values, which in turn represent the degree of risk involved and accordingly, allows the owner to take necessary measures at the preconstruction stage to reduce the risks, [2] minimize the cost and time overrun through setting the right amount of contingency, [3] avoid tie up of excessive funds for the project, which can be used in others projects or activities, and [4] have higher confidence during the decision making process of whether to proceed or not to proceed with the project