Bayesian Simultaneous Intervals for Small Areas: An Application to Mapping Mortality Rates in U.S. Health Service Areas

It is customary when presenting a choropleth map of rates or counts to present only the estimates (mean or mode) of the parameters of interest. While this technique illustrates spatial variation, it ignores the variation inherent in the estimates. We describe an approach to present variability in choropleth maps by constructing 100(1-alpha)% simultaneous intervals. The result provides three maps (estimate with two bands). We propose two methods to construct simultaneous intervals from the optimal individual highest posterior density (HPD) intervals to ensure joint simultaneous coverage of 100(1-alpha)%. Both methods exhibit the main feature of multiplying the lower bound and dividing the upper bound of the individual HPD intervals by parameters

Relationship between mortality and health care expenditure : Sustainable assessment of health care system

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Geographically weighted visualization: Interactive graphics for scale-varying exploratory analysis

We introduce a series of geographically weighted (GW) interactive graphics, or geowigs, and use them to explore spatial relationships at a range of scales. We visually encode information about geographic and statistical proximity and variation in novel ways through gw-choropleth maps, multivariate gw-boxplots, gw-shading and scalograms. The new graphic types reveal information about GW statistics at several scales concurrently. We impement these views in prototype software containing dynamic links and GW interactions that encourage exploration and refine them to consider directional geographies. An informal evaluation uses interactive GW techniques to consider Guerry's dataset of 'moral statistics', casting doubt on correlations originally proposed through visual analysis, revealing new local anomalies and suggesting multivariate geographic relationships. Few attempts at visually synthesising geography with multivariate statistical values at multiple scales have been reported. The geowigs proposed here provide informative representations of multivariate local variation, particularly when combined with interactions that coordinate views and result in gw-shading. We argue that they are widely applicable to area and point-based geographic data and provide a set of methods to support visual analysis using GW statistics through which the effects of geography can be explored at multiple scales

Multivariate hierarchical analysis of car crashes data considering a spatial network lattice

Road traffic casualties represent a hidden global epidemic, demanding evidence-based interventions. This paper demonstrates a network lattice approach for identifying road segments of particular concern, based on a case study of a major city (Leeds, UK), in which 5,862 crashes of different severities were recorded over an eight-year period (2011-2018). We consider a family of Bayesian hierarchical models that include spatially structured and unstructured random effects, to capture the dependencies between the severity levels. Results highlight roads that are more prone to collisions, relative to estimated traffic volumes, in the northwest and south of city-centre. We analyse the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), proposing a novel procedure to investigate the presence of MAUP on a network lattice. We conclude that our methods enable a reliable estimation of road safety levels to help identify "hotspots" on the road network and to inform effective local interventions.Comment: 23 pages, 5 tables, 8 figure

Linking stroke mortality with air pollution, income, and greenness in northwest Florida: an ecological geographical study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Relatively few studies have examined the association between air pollution and stroke mortality. Inconsistent and inclusive results from existing studies on air pollution and stroke justify the need to continue to investigate the linkage between stroke and air pollution. No studies have been done to investigate the association between stroke and greenness. The objective of this study was to examine if there is association of stroke with air pollution, income and greenness in northwest Florida.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our study used an ecological geographical approach and dasymetric mapping technique. We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical model with a convolution prior considering five census tract specific covariates. A 95% credible set which defines an interval having a 0.95 posterior probability of containing the parameter for each covariate was calculated from Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. The 95% credible sets are (-0.286, -0.097) for household income, (0.034, 0.144) for traffic air pollution effect, (0.419, 1.495) for emission density of monitored point source polluters, (0.413, 1.522) for simple point density of point source polluters without emission data, and (-0.289,-0.031) for greenness. Household income and greenness show negative effects (the posterior densities primarily cover negative values). Air pollution covariates have positive effects (the 95% credible sets cover positive values).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>High risk of stroke mortality was found in areas with low income level, high air pollution level, and low level of exposure to green space.</p

GIS Modeling of the Prominent Geohazards in Arkansas

The State of Arkansas is prone to numerous geohazards. This thesis is a twofold study of prominent geohazards in Arkansas: the first fold includes a novel triggerless approach for mass wasting susceptibility modeling applied to the Boston Mountains in NW Arkansas, and the second fold is a GIS-based regression modeling of the extreme weather patterns at the state level. Each study fold is presented in this thesis as a separate chapter embracing a published peer-reviewed paper. In the first paper, I have used the analytical hierarchy process to assign preliminary statistical weights to the most cogent variables influencing mass wasting in the central Boston Mountains. These most significant variables are then incorporated in Fuzzy modeling of mass wasting susceptibility within the 1200 km2 study area. For comparison and accuracy assessment, a second model has been established using a conventional weighted overlay (WO) approach. Results indicate that the developed novel approach is superior, with approximately 83% accuracy, to the traditional WO approach that has a marginal success of about 28% accuracy. Road related mass wasting events recorded by the Arkansas Department of Transportation have been used to validate both models. In the second paper, I have conducted a systematically gridded analysis of severe weather events, including tornadoes, derechos, and hail, during 1955-2015. The study examines and statistically determines the most significant explanatory variables contributing to the spatial patterns of severe weather events between 1955 and 2015, consequently it identifies severity indices for the entire state. These weather-related hazards and their associated risk will always abide; therefore, the best defense is employ geospatial technologies to plan for hazard mitigation. The mass wasting model developed in this study contributes pivotal information for identifying zones of high risk along roadways in NW Arkansas, which definitely can be adapted to avoid disastrous road failures. In addition, the weather-related severity indices determined at the state level can profoundly benefit state and federal agencies focused on increasing the availability of public and private storm shelters in previously under-represented zones of high risk. This undoubtedly will save lives from unavoidable catastrophic events across the entire state

Computing Local Fractal Dimension Using Geographical Weighting Scheme

The fractal dimension (D) of a surface can be viewed as a summary or average statistic for characterizing the geometric complexity of that surface. The D values are useful for measuring the geometric complexity of various land cover types. Existing fractal methods only calculate a single D value for representing the whole surface. However, the geometric complexity of a surface varies across patches and a single D value is insufficient to capture these detailed variations. Previous studies have calculated local D values using a moving window technique. The main purpose of this study is to compute local D values using an alternative way by incorporating the geographical weighting scheme within the original global fractal methods. Three original fractal methods are selected in this study: the Triangular Prism method, the Differential Box Counting method and the Fourier Power Spectral Density method. A Gaussian density kernel function is used for the local adaption purpose and various bandwidths are tested. The first part of this dissertation research explores and compares both of the global and local D values of these three methods using test images. The D value is computed for every single pixel across the image to show the surface complexity variation. In the second part of the dissertation, the main goal is to study two major U.S. cities located in two regions. New York City and Houston are compared using D values for both of spatial and temporal comparison. The results show that the geographical weighting scheme is suitable for calculating local D values but very sensitive to small bandwidths. New York City and Houston show similar global D results for both year of 2000 and 2016 indicating there were not much land cover changes during the study period

Diabetes-related excess mortality in Mexico: a comparative analysis of National Death Registries between 2017-2019 and 2020

OBJECTIVE: To estimate diabetes-related mortality in Mexico in 2020 compared with 2017-2019 after the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective, state-level study used national death registries of Mexican adults aged ≥20 years for the 2017-2020 period. Diabetes-related death was defined using ICD-10 codes listing diabetes as the primary cause of death, excluding certificates with COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. Spatial and negative binomial regression models were used to characterize the geographic distribution and sociodemographic and epidemiologic correlates of diabetes-related excess mortality, estimated as increases in diabetes-related mortality in 2020 compared with average 2017-2019 rates. RESULTS: We identified 148,437 diabetes-related deaths in 2020 (177 per 100,000 inhabitants) vs. an average of 101,496 deaths in 2017-2019 (125 per 100,000 inhabitants). In-hospital diabetes-related deaths decreased by 17.8% in 2020 versus 2017-2019, whereas out-of-hospital deaths increased by 89.4%. Most deaths were attributable to type 2 diabetes (130 per 100,000 inhabitants). Compared with 2018-2019 data, hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state and diabetic ketoacidosis were the two contributing causes with the highest increase in mortality (128% and 116% increase, respectively). Diabetes-related excess mortality clustered in southern Mexico and was highest in states with higher social lag, rates of COVID-19 hospitalization, and prevalence of HbA1c ≥7.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes-related deaths increased among Mexican adults by 41.6% in 2020 after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, occurred disproportionately outside the hospital, and were largely attributable to type 2 diabetes and hyperglycemic emergencies. Disruptions in diabetes care and strained hospital capacity may have contributed to diabetes-related excess mortality in Mexico during 2020